Input: ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AFS Annual Financial Statement BERP Basic Education Recovery Project BESP Basic Education Support Project DA Designated Account DPs Development Partners ESA Education Sector Analysis ESCP Environmental and Social Commitment Plan ( ESSP Education Sector Strategic Plan ESPIG Education Sector Program Implementation Grant FM Financial Management GDP Gross Domestic Product GER Gross Enrollment Rate GOS Government of Sudan GPE Global Partnership for Education IDP Internally Displaced Person IFT Interim unaudited Financial Reports ISN Interim Strategy Note ISP Intermediary Support Provider MOE Ministry of Education MOFEP Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning NAC National Audit Chamber NER Net Enrollment Rate NHBPS National Household Budget and Poverty Survey NLA National Learning Assessment OOSC Out-of-School-Children PCU Project Coordination Unit PFS Project Financial Statements PDO Project Development Objective PPSD Project Procurement Strategy for Development PSC Project Steering Committee PTA Parents and Teachers Association PTR Pupil-teacher Ratio SDG Sudanese Pounds SOE Statement of Expenditures SRR Social Risk Rating SSA Sub-Saharan Africa UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USD United States Dollar WDR World Development Report

National Household Budget and Poverty Survey


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) DATASHEET

**BASIC INFORMATION**
~~BASIC~~ ~~INFO~~ ~~TABLE~~ Country(ies) Project Name Sudan Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Environmental and Social Risk Project ID Financing Instrument Process Classification Investment Project P172812 Moderate Financing

**Financing & Implementation Modalities**

Urgent Need or Capacity Constraints (FCC)

[ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC)

[ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [✓] Fragile State(s)

[ ] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s)

[ ] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country

[ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict

[ ] Deferred Drawdown [ ] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster

[ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 05-May-2020 28-Feb-2021 Bank/IFC Collaboration No

**Proposed Development Objective(s)**

To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan during the transition school year.

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Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**Components**

**Component Name** **Cost (US$, millions)**

School Grants Program 11,280,000.00 Program coordination and management 300,000.00

**Organizations**

Borrower: Federal Ministry of Finance Implementing Agency: Federal Ministry of Education

**PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)**

**SUMMARY-NewFin1**

**Total Project Cost** 11.58

**Total Financing** 11.58

**of which IBRD/IDA** 0.00

**Financing Gap** 0.00

**DETAILS-NewFinEnh1**

**Non-World Bank Group Financing**

Trust Funds 11.58 EFA-FTI Education Program Development Fund 11.58

**Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions)**

**WB Fiscal Year** 2020 2021

**Annual** 1.58 10.00

**Cumulative** 1.58 11.58

**INSTITUTIONAL DATA**

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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**Practice Area (Lead)** **Contributing Practice Areas**

Education

**SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)**

**Risk Category** **Rating**

1. Political and Governance ⚫ High

2. Macroeconomic ⚫ High 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Moderate 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Moderate 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Substantial 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Moderate 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Low 9. Other ⚫ Low 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial

**COMPLIANCE**

**Policy**
Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?

[ ] Yes [ ] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?

[ ] Yes [ ] No Page 3 of 40


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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Page 5 of 40


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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**I.** **STRATEGIC CONTEXT**

**A. Country Context**

1. **Sudan is a lower-middle-income country with a fast-growing population, close to half of which is living in**
**poverty.** Despite economic sanctions and secession of the oil-rich Southern states, Sudan’s gross domestic product
(GDP) grew at an annual average rate of 2 percent between 2008 and 2017. In nominal terms, GDP per capita increased four-fold from Sudanese Pounds (SDG) 3,617 to SDG 14,485. However, in constant 2016 prices, there was a 5 percent decrease in per capita GDP owing to a slower growth relative to population increase and high inflation.
The total population is estimated to have reached 40 million in 2017 and growing at an annual average of 2.5 percent in the last 10 years (World Bank, 2016). The school-aged population (4-to-16-year-olds) accounts for one third of the population and continues to grow, contributing to the rising demand for basic services such as education and healthcare. The country has made considerable progress in human development: child mortality reduced from 105 per 1,000 (2000) to 65 per 1,000 (2016); and maternal mortality dropped from 544 per 1,000 (2000) to 311 per 1,000 (2015) (World Bank WDI). The youth literacy rate, defined as the proportion of youth between the age of 15 and 24 that can read and write a simple sentence in any language, increased from 78 percent in 2000 to 86 percent in 2014 (World Bank WDI).

2. **Sudan is currently at a very important crossroads in the country’s history.** A popular uprising brought to power a civilian government with the attention to carry out necessary reforms to stabilize the economy, reallocate resources away from commodity subsidies and toward social spending, liberalize the exchange rate, and reintegrate Sudan into the world economy. In the short run, however, large arrears on foreign debt and its inclusion on the US State Sponsors of Terrorism List (SSTL) restrict the country’s access to needed finance from international financial institutions and markets.

3. **The new transitional Government is facing one of the most challenging environments in the world** . The country faces a macroeconomic crisis: rampant inflation, massive currency devaluation, rapidly increasing arrears on international debt, and ostracism from the dollar-based international financial system. Modest economic growth persists, and the country is marked by deep poverty and inequality. Social indicators remain low and vary markedly across states, gender and poverty level. Social indicators are aggravated by the country’s service delivery function, which is still compromised by low levels of public expenditure, shortage of relevant personnel and dilapidated infrastructure.

4. **As for other African countries, the direct impact of COVID-19 on Sudan will depend greatly on if current**
**measures prove adequate to contain the spread of the virus in the country** . Sudan has little capacity at present to
manage a major COVID-19 epidemic, which would add to an already exceedingly difficult economic and political situation. Tourism, air transport, and the oil sector are visibly impacted. However, invisible impacts of COVID-19 are expected in 2020 regardless of the duration of the pandemic.

5. **The economic impact of COVID-19 includes the increased price of basic foods, rising unemployment, and**
**falling exports.** Restrictions on movement are making the economic situation worse, with commodity prices soaring
across the country. According to the IMF projections, consumer prices are expected to increase by 81.3 percent in Page 6 of 40


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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 2020. The IMF has already forecasted an overall economic stagnation in 2020 in Sudan. GDP is expected to decrease between 4-10 percent in 2020 due to the combined impact of the economic crisis exacerbated by the social distancing measures to curb the spread of COVID-19. Slowing growth and COVID-19 policy responses will have a significant negative impact on government revenue. Slowing activity will automatically translate into lower levels of tax and other government revenue collection. The combined effect on government revenues is projected to be significant.

6. **Poverty reduction stagnated in 2018 mainly due to weak economic growth, political and macroeconomic**
**instability and the shortage of essential food items such as bread.** According to the most recent official estimates
of poverty based on the 2014/15 National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS), 36.1 percent of Sudanese population (or 13.4 million people) are poor. However, the overall/national poverty rate masks wide disparities across Sudan’s 18 states. For example, Central Darfur State in western Sudan recorded the highest rate of poverty (67.2 percent). Generally, the states of South Kordofan, West and Central Darfur, in which two in three people are poor, are the states with the highest poverty rate followed by Red Sea, East and South Darfur. However, when poverty was measured against the World Bank’s international poverty line for lower middle-income countries (US$3.2 per capita per day), 46.1 percent was deemed poor. The poor are particularly affected by rising inflation given their high food share in consumption, and limited means to preserve the erosion of the value of their savings.

**B. Sectoral and Institutional Context**

7. **Education provision in Sudan is a shared responsibility among various administrative layers**, **managed at**
**the Federal, State and locality levels.** The Federal level has the policy mandate for strategic planning, coordination,
and definition of standards. The 18 states are responsible for secondary education provision, human resource management, coordination of work of the Directorate of Education at the locality level, and basic education certification. Localities are the frontline service providers, responsible for basic education day-to-day management.
The new Education Sector Strategic Plan 2018-2022 was endorsed by the Government in December 2018 and defines the overall direction of the sector in the medium term.

8. **According to the current structure, basic education comprises two years of preschool, five years of lower**
**primary, and three years of upper primary education (2:5:3 structure)** . In 2015, Sudan began reform of the basic
education curriculum and is currently moving to a new education structure comprising nine-year education cycle (2:6:3 structure). The first cohort of students is expected to reach Grade 9 of basic education in 2023. The increase in the number of years of free education requires a reassessment of the system’s ability to provide complete basic education to all children in Sudan, including internally displaced persons (IDPs).

9. **Sudan has seen significant improvements in basic education over the last decade.** Between 2008/09 and 2017/18, the total number of schools (public and private) increased by 2,800, allowing one million more children to access education. The number of students completing primary education and proceeding to secondary school increased from 251 to 336 thousand during the same time. Provision of preschool education, an important step to build school readiness, is relatively high with Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) reaching 43 percent in 2017, ten percentage points above average for Sub-Saharan Africa. Around 26 percent of basic schools have preschool facilities. In 2018, 65 percent of learners enrolled in Grade 1 reported having some preschool education, an improvement of about 16 percentage points from 49 percent recorded in mid-2000 (ESA, 2018).

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National Household Budget and Poverty Survey


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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 10. **Despite recent progress in student enrollments, the education sector suffers from multiple challenges:** (i) low and unequal levels of access and completion; (ii) low and stagnant student learning outcomes; (iii) poor education system management; (iv) inadequate learning environments; and (v) low level of public spending on education and significant contributions from households. In Sudan, the school system is also currently severely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, with all education institutes closed since March 14, 2020. An estimated 6.2 million students are out of school due to the lockdown (Annual School Census, 2018). If this situation is permitted to continue unabated, it could have profound, long-term negative impacts on the country's development.

_Low and unequal levels of access and completion_ 11. **Sudan has not managed to cope with the increased demand for education imposed by the high population**
**growth hence the overall level of access to basic education in Sudan has been stagnant over the past decade.** GER
has been stagnant and low compared to other comparator countries: 72 percent (2008/09) and 73 percent (2016/17). According to the data from 2014/15 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS), Net Enrollment Rate (NER) is 69 percent with NER for boys 2 percentage points higher compared to girls (70 and 68 percent, respectively).
While girls’ and boys’ Grade 1 enrollment rates in urban areas are similar, male Grade 1 enrollment rates in rural areas are six percentage points higher than those for girls. Grade 8 enrollment rates are in favor of boys, and the gap is especially evident in rural areas.

**Figure 1: Primary education enrollment rates**
Access to basic education in Sudan at the beginning and end of Primary education GER in 2016 or the the cycle in Sudan by gender, location, and wealth quintile latest available, selected countries (2014) 98 96 Boys Girls 92 86 81 82 77 100 94 34 55 46 Grade 1 Grade 8 Grade 1 Grade 8 Urban Rural Grade 1 Grade 8 Bottom 20% Top 20% _Source:_ Authors’ estimates based on MICS2014/15. _Source:_ Authors on UNESCO UIS data.

**12.** **Socioeconomic disparities in basic education are large.** While Grade 1 enrollment rates for the wealthiest
fifth of households were universal, only 81 percent of children in the poorest fifth of households were enrolled. This socioeconomic gap in primary access widens by the end of the education cycle. Only 34 percent of children from the poorest quintile reach the last grade of primary education compared to 94 percent of children from the wealthiest quintile. The socioeconomic disparities further translate into access to secondary education: only 9 percent of Page 8 of 40

Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
UNESCO UIS data
Annual School Census


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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) children from the bottom income quintile of households proceed to Form 1 of secondary education, while 77 percent of children from the top income quintile do. Low access to secondary education for the bottom income quintiles of population in Sudan urge targeted support to the most vulnerable and poor families **.** 13. **Socioeconomic disparities in basic education are large** . While Grade 1 enrollment rates for the wealthiest fifth of households were universal, only 81 percent of children in the poorest fifth of households were enrolled. This socioeconomic gap in primary access widens by the end of the education cycle. Only 34 percent of children from the poorest quintile reach the last grade of primary education compared to 94 percent of children from the wealthiest quintile. The socioeconomic disparities further translate into access to secondary education: only 9 percent of children from the bottom income quintile of households proceed to Form 1 of secondary education, while 77 percent of children from the top income quintile do. Low access to secondary education for the bottom income quintiles of population in Sudan urge targeted support to the most vulnerable and poor families.

14. **Low retention and high dropout rates have undermined Sudan’s effort to implement universal fee-free**
**basic education** . An analysis of enrollment in 2017 [1] illustrates the large volume of pupils entering Grade 1 gradually
shrinks while moving to upper grades due to drop out. In general, boys are more likely to drop out than girls. For example, 48 percent of boys enrolled in Grade 1 are likely to reach Grade 8 compared to 53 percent of girls.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that high drop out of male pupils is associated with the high opportunity cost of attending school, which includes the cost of not working in the household, while female pupils drop out due to early marriage.

15. **The number of out-of-school-children (OOSC) is striking: approximately three million school-age children**
**are not in the education system.** While 52 percent of those children had never attended school, 48 percent quit.
The majority of OOSC (77 percent) are 6- to 13-year-olds, i.e. basic school-age. The system still has late entry until 11 years, with children who do not attend school before turning 12 are likely not to attend ever. According to the results of the National Household Budget and Poverty Survey (NHBPS) conducted in 2014/15, the main reasons for not attending school for children between the age of 6 and 15 are high costs (mentioned by 20 percent of respondents), distance to schools (14 percent), and the need for the child to support the family (6 percent) (World Bank, 2018). There is a significant risk that OOSC will increase further when schools reopen again post COVID-19.

1 Education Sector Analysis, 2018.

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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**Figure 2: Enrollment pyramid and share of illiterate pupils**

A. Enrollment pyramid, thousand (2017) B. Percent of Grade 3 pupils who could not read a single word of a short text in Arabic (2014 or the latest available) 40% 27% Secondary 3 Secondary 2 Secondary 1 Basic 8 Basic 7 Basic 6 Basic 5 Basic 4 Basic 3 Basic 2 Basic 1 185 Male 164 255 341 524 197 Female 177 246 312 464 17% 18% 22% 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 4% Jordan Iraq Morocco Egypt Yemen Sudan _Source:_ Education Sector Analysis, 2018. _Source:_ http://www.earlygradereadingbarometer.org/ _Low and stagnant learning outcomes_ 16. **Learning outcomes in Sudan schools are generally low** . According to the National Learning Assessment (NLA) conducted in 2015 for Grade 3 pupils, the results were low in all domains of the assessment: reading, writing, and numeracy. For example, only 5 percent of pupils could read fluently (more than 60 words per minute) in Arabic, and 40 percent were not able to read at all. Furthermore, the assessment of reading speed among third graders indicated an average speed of 15 words per minute, which is far below the estimated minimum reading speed of 40 words per minute thought to be necessary to gain understanding of and meaning from the text. However, Sudan’s third graders did better in listening and comprehension compared to pupils from other Arabic Countries.

17. **There is sign of slight improvements in learning outcomes at the national level** . The country has recently completed its second round of NLA, and preliminary data indicates some gains in reading scores, with the reduction of non-readers from 40 percent in 2014 to 38 percent in 2017 [2] . Reading comprehension has improved from 36 percent in 2014 to 52 percent in 2017. The share of students able to perform single digit subtraction and addition increased significantly from 40 and 46 percent in 2014 to 43 percent and 52 percent in 2017, respectively. The preliminary results show that schools, where gains were made in raising reading levels in Grade 3 between the first and second NLA’s, also did better overall on Grade 6 tests. The analysis serves as an important source of data for policy dialogue. The data provides for details, which facilitate the understanding of the learning among states and within states.

2 The difference in scores is statistically significant at 0.01 confidence level.

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**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**Figure 3: Grade 3 reading performance by state (2014/15 and 2017/18 NLAs)**
_Share of pupil unable to read a single word (non-readers)_ 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2014/15 2017/18 Improved (% of non-readers declined) Stagnant Declined _Inadequate learning environments_ 18. **The poor learning environment in many primary schools affects teacher motivation as well as student**
**outcomes** . Many schools do not meet norms for teaching and learning materials. While there have been
improvements in student textbook ratios recently, mostly due to the efforts made within the recently completed Basic Education Recovery Project (P128644), under which all pupils in Grade 1-4 received a set of textbooks, shortages in specific subjects remain. On average four learners share a science book, while in Math and Arabic language classes, two and three learners, respectively, share one textbook.

_19._ **Some areas of school infrastructure are currently inadequate and continued basic education expansion**
**will add further pressure** . Existing primary schools have shortfalls in classrooms and other facilities. For example,
16 percent of public schools including 21 percent in rural areas and 9 percent in urban, have a least one grade without a classroom. Pupils in such classes study outside ‘under a tree’ and are often dismissed during rainy seasons and hot summer months, which contribute to further worsening learning outcomes. The availability of water and sanitation facilities also tend to vary widely across schools and the number of latrines is generally inadequate. This is an important driver of dropout for girls in upper primary school, as girls are entering puberty, particularly given the high number of over-aged children due to repetition (Sperling et al., 2016). Expanding access to amenities in underserved areas will also require more classrooms in basic schools. Since the distance between schools and households is an important factor in explaining school drop-out, it will be important to locate new schools optimally to reduce travel times (World Bank, 2018).

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Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) _20._ **Incomplete primary schools affect the system’s ability to retain children until completion.** A review of the supply of basic education indicates that 6,793 out of the 16,643 schools are incomplete schools that miss at least one grade. When children transition from one school to another, the risk of non-completion increases, because they find it harder to settle in a new environment, and then learning tends to regress.

_Low level of public spending on education and significant contributions from households_ 21. **Low public funding for education is affecting quality services and impeding access.** The education budget as a proportion of the overall budget remained stable at 11 percent between 2009-2017, which is low compared to the GPE recommended 20 percent (GPE, 2016). In the same period, the sector budget increased 2.6 times in nominal terms, from SDG 2.7 trillion to SDG 6.9 trillion. In turn, recurrent spending in education, which represent 90 percent of the budget, more than doubled in current prices from SDG 2.4 trillion in 2009 to SDG 5.4 trillion in 2017. However, in real terms, at 2016 prices, recurrent education expenditure dropped by half. As a share of GDP, spending in education was halved from 2.4 percent in 2009 to 1.2 percent in 2017, which is the lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa.

22. **Families contribute greatly to education costs including goods and services, capital costs, salaries to**
**volunteer teachers, and food provision to teachers and pupils.** In basic education for instance, on top of the SDG
2.6 trillion covered by public finances, parents added a total of SDG 496 million in the 2016/17 translating to about 16 percent of the known spending. The current economic situation is likely to affect the ability of families to pay going forward, so there is a need to mobilize more public funding. With the growing inflation affecting the purchasing power of households in Sudan, most of them may lose the ability to pay for goods and services.

23. **External financing of the education sector is limited and unpredictable.** Sudan remains a highly-indebted country with sizeable external arrears and has been in non-accrual status with the World Bank Group (WBG) since 1994. At the end of 2015, its external debt amounted to US$50 billion (61 percent of GDP) in nominal terms, about 84 percent of which was in arrears. Given Sudan’s current lack of access to IDA funding, the World Bank supported program is resourced mainly through trust funds, partnerships including GPE, and the World Bank’s operational budget.

_Impact of COVID-19 on the education sector_ 24. **On March 17, 2020, the Cabinet of Ministers announced the closure of schools, universities and cancelled**
**all public gatherings due to COVID-19 global pandemic** . The COVID-19 pandemic threatens education progress
worldwide through two major shocks: (1) the near-universal closing of schools, and (2) the economic recession sparked by the pandemic-control measures. Without major effort to counter their effects, the school closings shock will lead to learning loss, increased dropouts, and higher inequality; the economic shock will exacerbate the damage, by depressing education demand and supply as it harms households; and together, they will exact long-run costs on human capital and welfare.

25. **It is likely that the poorest will be affected the most by economic shocks and school shutdown** . During the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone household income fell from US$336 to US$131 and there was an increase in girls getting pregnant (World Bank, 2020). To protect the poorest and most vulnerable and enable them to continue learning, special interventions will be needed.

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**C. Relevance to Higher Level Objectives**

26. **The proposed operation will contribute to implementation of the 2018-2022 Education Sector Strategic**
**Plan.** The Government has developed a sector strategic plan to guide service delivery in general education between
2018 and 2022. The proposed project supports operationalization of some of the activities and strategies endorsed for improving quality learning and expanding access to basic education.

27. **The proposed project will contribute to the World Bank’s twin goals of ending extreme poverty and**
**promoting shared prosperity and is consistent with the World Bank Group’s Human Capital Project.** The proposed
project promises to improve learning environments which are critical elements in learning adjusted years. The interventions will impact the potential of the children who the project will reach, increasing their chances of excelling in life.

28. **The project will also contribute to Sudan’s progress towards the Sustainable Development Goal 4 on**
**education.** The proposed operation will contribute to Target 4.1 ‘By 2030, ensure that all girls and boys complete
free, equitable and quality primary and secondary education leading to relevant and effective learning outcomes.
Specifically, the school grants will contribute to the increase of _Completion rates in Primary education._ 29. **Interim Strategy Note (ISN) 2014-15 for Sudan (Report No: 80051-SD) defines the areas of World Bank**
**engagements, focusing on basic service delivery** . The project will contribute to the long-term Poverty Reduction
and Equity Strategy by investing in improving education outcomes across the country, including areas under conflict.
It will support ISN Pillar II “address socioeconomic roots of conflict” and will contribute to improved equitable service delivery in education. The operation is also in line with the Government’s Basic Education Strategy and aims to upgrade the learning environment in states of Sudan.

**II.** **PROJECT DESCRIPTION**

**A. Project Development Objective**

**PDO Statement**

To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan during the transition school year.

**PDO Level Indicators**

1. Student enrollment in public primary schools.

The PDO indicator will be disaggregated by school grade and gender.

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Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**B. Project Components**

30. The project design is guided by the following principles: (a) rapid response to support schools in light of the deteriorating economic conditions; (b) lessons learned from past education projects, in particular Basic Education Recovery Project (BERP) (P128644); (c) government ownership and priorities aligned to the 2018-2022 Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP); and (d) complementarity with other donor funded projects to fill strategic gaps.

31. Attainment of the proposed PDO will be based on the Government’s achievement of results in the first component: (a) school grants program, which will include providing support to schools to improve learning environment and practices. The project will operate at system and school levels, targeting all public schools.

**Component 1: School Grants Program (US$11.275 million).**

32. This component will support provision of school grants to improve learnining environments and school planning. School grants will aim to: _(i) Incentivize parents’ engagement to reduce the risk of students (especially girls) dropping out_ . While basic education is officially free in Sudan, currently, families contribute greatly to education expenditures at the school level. As the economic situation has deteriorated, many vulnerable families may lose the ability to pay for basic services and pull the children out of school (especially girls). Furthermore, families may face challenges to provide the pupils with basic requirements for schooling, such as uniform, school bags, exercise books, etc. School Grants can play an important role in mitigating the expected economic shock on the most vulnerable and help reduce the education cost burdens during the hard time. It can also help provide girls in the upper primary grades with necessary packages such as sanitary napkins to encourage their retention.

_(ii) Support teachers to reduce absenteeism_ . Due to high inflation rates, teacher remuneration has been deteriorating in real terms, posing the risk of teachers leaving schools temporarily or permanently for alternative livelihood pathways. The School Grants may be used to support teachers (in cash or in-kind).

_(iii) Support the learning environment_ . School Grants are expected to be an important source of funding for the targeted schools to support the acquisition of basic learning materials, stationery, notebooks, classrooms furniture and equipment which contribute to improving the learning environment to attract and retain pupils and teachers, especially females in school. A list of eligible items will be developed and provided to the schools.

_(iv) Improve efficiency by strengthening capacity for participatory planning, budgeting and monitoring at the school_ _level_ . School grants can help disadvantaged schools create a participatory management structure at the school level.
A school profile report that provides information on the school will be provided to each school to support the participatory evidence-based planning process.

_(v) Improve equity in education by helping children in disadvantaged situation including IDPs, refugees, girls_ .
According to the latest Annual School Census, public schools enroll 30 thousand refugee students (in 1,681 schools) and 280 thousand IDPs (in 1,852 schools). While IDP children are concentrated in three Darfur states (68 percent of Page 14 of 40


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Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) all IDPs), namely, Central, North, and South Darfur, refugee students are distributed among half of Sudan’s states: South Kordofan (17 percent), White Nile (13 percent), West Kordofan (10 percent), East Darfur (10 percent), South Darfur (9 percent), Gadarif (8 percent), North Darfur (8 percent), and Khartoum state (7 percent). Moreover, girls’ retention rates (grade 6 survival rates) vary from type of schools: from 53.0 percent in co-ed schools to 85.9 percent in schools for girls. Surprisingly, girls’ survival rates are higher in schools with refugees or IDPs students compared to schools without them (78.3 vs 70.0 percent).

33. **Overall, 88 percent of public schools in Sudan (14,429 schools) meet one of the disadvantage criteria** : (i) low girls’ retention; (ii) enrollment of IDPs or refugee students; (iii) poor learning environment (absence of water supply, latrines, fences); and (iv) lack of teachers (high pupil-teacher ratios).

34. **Around 16,500 schools from all 18 States will benefit from school grants and training** in evidence planning to improving learning conditions and ultimately promote access, retention and learning. School Improvement Plans will be developed through a participatory process involving Parents and Teachers’ Associations (PTAs) as well as the community surrounding the schools. The plans will be informed by key information on the schools and the locality where they are situated.

35. **Allocation of school grants per school will be based on a formula**, which will include a per capita base and measures to cater for price differences among the states. An estimated US$2 per child will be allocated equally to all schools. The maximum amount per school will be US$1,000 to keep the grants manageable and at a level that the Government can afford to carry on at the end of the program, avoid having schools managing very high budgets, which may not be sustainable in the future. At least 5.4 million pupils will benefit from the School Grants Program.

36. **Localities will be responsible for allocating the grants to schools** ; train the PTAs and school heads on participatory planning and appropriate use of school grants; and supervision of implementation of the grants. The States with support from the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) will be responsible for capacity building at the community level (empowerment, inclusion, gender sensitivity, school safety) – train the localities and prepare them to perform their role in overseeing implementation of the school grants. The PCU will assess capacity of localities and schools in in participatory planning and monitoring of school results.

37. **Key activities will include** :

- Assessing capacity of localities and schools in in participatory planning and monitoring of school results;

- Training of school heads and PTAs in participatory planning and monitoring of school results, including
learning;

- Training of locality supervisors to provide support to schools as needed; and

- Providing grants to schools to improve learning environments.

38. **Selection of intervention schools** : The project will target all public primary schools in Sudan. Rich schoollevel data obtained from the School Census in 2015-2019 with support from the BERP will be used for the targeting of project beneficiaries (figure 4).

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**Figure 4: Heat map of Sudan’s basic education schools**

_Source:_ Based on 2018/19 School Census using Arcgis software.

39. **Component 2 Program coordination and management (US$0.3 million).** This component will support the Federal Ministry of Educaiton (MoE) in overall program coordination, monitoring and evaluation. The PCU will cover functions such as planning, procurement, financial management, environmental and social safeguards and monitoring and evaluation. Technical experts will be mobilized as necessary. The PCU will monitor the progress by collecting and analyzing school-level data under the the Annual School Census.

**C. Project Beneficiaries**

40. Primary beneficiaries are schoolchildren, teachers, and parents. Approximately 5.4 million students will benefit from the project through provision of school grants. Communities in targeted areas will also benefit from enhance participatory school management.

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Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 49. **The MoE and States will be supported by a PCU.** The PCU will be led by a Program Manager and include the following key personnel: (i) school grant coordinator; (ii) program monitoring and evaluation specialist; and (iii) procurement, financial management and administrative staff.

**B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation Arrangements**

50. **The project will support the establishment of a robust monitoring and evaluation system to supplement**
**and complement the Federal and State Ministries of Education structures.** The project will support training of state
officers on planning and budgeting to ensure timely development of monitorable annual plans with clear outputs.
Under the School Grants Program (Component 1), schools will receive regular supervision and support from localities, which means the latter will also need to strengthen their capacity to perform this task. Localities will train PTAs on participatory planning and use of school data for planning and monitoring purpose at the school level.
Localities will receive support for coaching and monitoring the reading program.

**C. Sustainability**

51. **The sustainability of project investments and activities guided project preparation and key elements of**
**the project design.** First, the PDO and project-supported activities are consistent with national strategies—in terms
of increasing access and improving the quality of basic education. There is also strong alignment between the indicators to be used to assess progress under the proposed project and the indicators/outcomes defined for the Government’s ESSP. Third, the technical contents of the project are supported by international and national evidence of good practices. Finally, a central focus of the project is strengthening the education system and capacity at all levels, including strengthening the community’s overall role in school management and planning, which is expected to be sustained in the long term. The elements discussed above support the sustainability of the project’s objective.

**IV.** **PROJECT APPRAISAL SUMMARY**

**A. Technical, Economic and Financial Analysis**

Technical Analysis 52. **The project is designed to support activities that address key issues in basic education identified by the**
**current Education Sector Analysis and ESSP** : limited and inequitable access to basic education due to supply-side
and demand-side constraints; poor quality of education service delivery and low student learning levels; and insufficient institutional capacity for efficient education system planning and management.

53. **Project objectives and performance targets are based on detailed financial analysis and simulations** .
These objectives and targets are financially feasible if the national education budget is supported by external funding. The selected activities draw on international experiences and best-practice and past projects in Sudan and elsewhere as relevant.

Page 19 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 74. **Safeguards Management Approach and Capacity** : An Environmental and Social Commitment Plan (ESCP) has been prepared and disclosed on April 23, 2020. Since this project is prepared under emergency procedures (Investment Project Financing Policy Paragraph 12), the ESCP outlines the commitment by the Client to update the ESMF of the Sudan Basic Education Support Project and finalize after project approval. A labor management plan has been prepared and disclosed on April 3 2020. The MoE will continue to serve as the implementation agency for this project. Within the MoE, there is an existing PCU which will hold responsibility for carrying day-today implementation of project activities. The PCU is supported a social mobilization and grass-roots capacity building/school grant coordinator and a safeguards specialist to carry out environmental and social safeguards implementation, monitoring and reporting respectively. National institutional capacity is thus strong. The PCU has a history of engaging with State Ministries and local communities to build capacity, and there is a component in the project dedicated to funding this, especially for the new States being added.

75. **Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure -** The project has prepared a stakeholder engagement plan based on the findings of a stakeholder mapping. This plan was disclosed in country on April 23, 2020 and on the World Bank website on April 30, 2020. There will be continuous stakeholder engagement by the MoE, State Education Offices, implementing entities; such as, partner non-government organizations. The project social mobilizers will closely work with the school level Parent Teacher Association (PTA) in the process of stakeholder engagement and community consultation.

76. **Grievance Redress Mechanism:** in Sudan, customary institutions including community development committees are responsible for managing community grievances. In case of grievances and disputes the communities/tribes typically settle these problems through their traditional system/community committees.
Further, the native administration or be heard by local courts, which are staffed with traditional leaders such as Nazir, Omdas, and Sheikhs serving as mediating and ruling out. The customary court can refer cases to the formal court system; however, chiefs and sub-chiefs in many areas continue to arbitrate grievances and disputes arising within the community. The BERP had weak institutionalization, systematic recording and reporting of grievances so the project needs to set up a grievance/complain handling mechanism building on existing local practice with defined procedure, timeline and capacity building to the committee.

77. **Gender** : the project will consider gender sensitive planning, through systematic gender analysis, action, monitoring and reporting. The analysis will consider gender disparities among different states, retention of girls in schools, understanding female teacher situations. The gender aspects differ among pastoralists, geographic locations, agro-pastoralists, which will be accounted in the implementation of the project. The project will also raise awareness and engage communities in making sure girls do not enter early marriage and stay in schools to complete basic education.

78. **Gender Based Violence:** in improving school planning and monitoring the proposed project will help to reduce GBV. To prevent and reduce such risks, the project will engage in awareness and stakeholder engagement campaigns as part of the continuous community consultation that will accompany project activities. For cases of GBV and sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA), the State PCU social mobilization and grass-roots capacity building/school grant coordinator specialist will be the focal person to ensure referral and services. If cases are reported, the project will allocate adequate resources to build awareness of this mechanism for bringing GBV Page 25 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**VII.** **RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING**

**Results Framework**

**COUNTRY: Sudan**
**Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support**

**Project Development Objectives(s)**

To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan during the transition school year.

**Project Development Objective Indicators**

**RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO**

**Indicator Name** **DLI** **Baseline** **End Target**

**To sustain enrollment in public basic education in Sudan**

Student enrollment in targeted schools (Number) 5,400,000.00 5,535,000.00 Girls enrolment in targeted schools (Number) 2,780,000.00 2,850,000.00

**PDO Table SPACE**

**Intermediate Results Indicators by Components**

**RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO**

**Indicator Name** **DLI** **Baseline** **End Target**

**School grants program**

Number of schools receiving grants (Number) 0.00 16,500.00 Share of schools with school-based management committees 0.00 90.00 trained on school grant management (Percentage) Page 28 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**IO Table SPACE**

**UL Table SPACE**

**Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators**

**Methodology for Data**
**Indicator Name** **Definition/Description** **Frequency** **Datasource**
**Collection**

**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection**

Ministry of Education and PCU Ministry of Education and PCU

**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection**

PCU Project Coordination Unit Page 29 of 40 Annual School Census Annual School Census Census of schools key data collected yearly Census of school key data collected annually Student enrollment in targeted schools The enrollment will be monitored through the annual school census Number of girls enrolled in Girls enrolment in targeted schools targeted schools

**ME PDO Table SPACE**

Annual Annual

**Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators**

**Methodology for Data**
**Indicator Name** **Definition/Description** **Frequency** **Datasource**
**Collection**

Reports compiled by Localities and States Reports compiled by Localities and States Number of schools receiving Number of schools receiving grants grants Annual Annual Administrativ e Reports Administrativ e reports Share of schools with school-based management committees trained on school grant management

**ME IO Table SPACE**

Share of schools receiving training on school grant management.


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Page 30 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**ANNEX 2: Implementation Support Plan**

**COUNTRY: Sudan**
**Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project**

1. **The implementation support plan of the project is consistent with the new Government’s strategy for managing**
**externally funded programs supporting education** . It also considers challenges in the education sector and risks
identified in the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool. It reflects the lessons learned from the past projects in Sudan. The project implementation rests under the responsibility of the MoE with targeted and continuous implementation support and technical advice from the World Bank.

2. **The implementation support strategy is based on several mechanisms** that will enable enhanced implementation support to the Government, on-time and effective monitoring of the Project, and guidance to implementing agencies on technical, fiduciary, environmental and social aspects, as necessary. The implementation support thus comprises: (a) implementation support missions; (b) regular technical meetings and field visits; (c) progress report on Results Framework; (d) M&E; and (e) harmonization among development partners and other stakeholders.

3. **The World Bank’s implementation support will broadly consist of the following:**

- Capacity-building activities to strengthen the ability to implement the project, covering the technical,
fiduciary, and environmental and social dimensions

- Provision of technical advice and implementation support geared to the attainment of the PDO, PDO-level
and intermediate outcome results indicators

- Ongoing monitoring of implementation progress, including regularly reviewing key outcome and
intermediate indicators, and identification of bottlenecks

- Monitoring risks and identification of corresponding mitigation measures

- Close coordination with other DPs to leverage resources, ensure coordination of efforts, and avoid
duplication 4. **Role of the World Bank.** The World Bank’s implementation support team will be composed of country office (CO) based Task Team Leader (TTL), and both HQ-based and CO-based operations and specialist staff, who will be closely working with the client on a regular basis on implementation monitoring. Consultants will also be engaged for additional support in the key areas of reforms including governance, fiduciary, and safeguard management.

5. **Role of GPE and Local Education Group.** GPE and Local Education Group will be critical in providing oversight of the project implementation and maintaining the policy dialogues on key sector policies under the project. GPE and Local Education Group will join the biannual project implementation support missions.

6. **Fiduciary arrangements.** FM and procurement arrangements will build on and use the capacity developed under the previous projects. The World Bank FM and procurement specialists are based in the World Bank’s CO in Khartoum and will support project implementation through regular reviews and on-time training and capacity building of staff of the client. Formal supervision of fiduciary processes and procedures will be conducted biannually, and implementation support will be provided as required by the World Bank team.

7. **Social and environmental safeguards.** The World Bank environmental and social development specialists will provide regular implementation support to the Government in the implementation of the ESMF.

Page 32 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**Number of Staff Weeks**
**Skills Needed** **Number of Trips** **Comments**

**Per Year**

Gender/Social 5 Field trips as required HQ-based Development Specialist Administrative support 10 Co-based CO-based _Note_ : CO=Country Office. HQ = Headquarters.

Page 34 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812)

**ANNEX 3: Economic and Financing Analysis**

**COUNTRY: Sudan**
**Sudan Basic Education Support Project**

1. This section summarizes the results of the economic and financial analysis carried out to identify the current
challenges of the basic education sector in Sudan and to underline the potential economic gains to the society that could be sought through the Project.

**Education Sector Context and Labor Market Outcomes**

2. Sudan is far from the Education SDG 4 of universal primary completion because of the high number of dropouts within the primary cycle. Access to Grade 1 in basic education is relatively high with four out of five six-year-olds being enrolled on time (see table A3-1), however, the dropout rate is very high, leading to 55 percent basic completion rate in 2014. The retention within the basic cycle slightly improved from 48.2 percent in 2014 to 49.3 percent in 2018 but remains largely inadequate to generate larger efficiencies. Grade 6 survival rate improved by 2.3 p.p. from 64.3 percent in 2015 to 66.6 percent in 2018.

Table A3-1: Access, enrollment, and completion rates in basic education in Sudan

**Sudan** **Urban** **Rural**
Net entry rate (6-year-olds) * 82.8% 90.4% 79.9% NER (6-13-year-olds) * 69.1% 85.8% 62.6% GER (6-13-year-olds) * 73.3% 88.0% 67.4% Grade 4 survival rate** 84.7% 97.7% 76.8% Grade 6 survival rate** 66.6% 83.3% 56.5% Grade 8 survival rate** 49.3% 68.2% 37.8% Completion rate (13-year-olds) * 55.0% 58.2% 52.6% _Source:_ authors’ estimates based on the data from Sudan MICS 2014* and School Census 2018** 3. About seven percent of people never attended school in 2014. Real access increased by eight percentage points from 85 percent in 2009 to 93 percent in 2014. Access at age six increased by 30 percentage points from 40 percent in 2009 to 70 percent in 2014. The increase is driven by an increase in access among the bottom-40 percent of the population. System demonstrated growth between 2009 and 2014 with late entry remaining constant at 11 years. Those who are not ever attended school at age 11 will never attend.

4. The poor retention rate in basic education comes from a lack of school demand, in particular, among the poorest. Economic difficulties and behavior such as early marriage, pregnancy, and economic hardships explain the fragility of school demand. The lack of supply (overcrowded classrooms, ‘open-air’ or temporary classrooms, and incomplete schools) also negatively effects retention rates. According to the School Census data, 16 percent of students are enrolled in a school that does not provide full course of basic education cycle (8 grades). In addition, these students are likely to drop out before completion.

Page 35 of 40

School Census data
data from Sudan MICS 2014


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 5. **Repetition rates are relatively low compared to other countries in the SSA region** . There was a slight improvement in the repetition rates: from 5.3 percent in 2015 to 4.8 percent in 2018. Though, an estimated SDG 336 million (US$10.4 million) is used annually to deliver basic education services to repeaters and pupils that drop out [3] .

6. **Learning levels of students in basic schools in Sudan are generally weak** . Representative evidence from the National Learning Assessment find that on average 39 percent of grade 3 pupils are not able to read a single word and only 5 percent of pupils read fluently (more than 60 words per minute) in Arabic (NLA, 2018).
Furthermore, the assessment of reading speed among third graders indicated an average speed of 15 words per minute, which is far below the estimated minimum reading speed of 40 words per minute thought to be necessary to gain understanding of and meaning from the text. The high share of illiterate pupils in grade 3 means that 39 percent of public resources spent on pupils in grades 1-3 are wasted in the system, which is equivalent to SDG 473 million (US$14.6 million).

7. **The Internal Efficiency of the system is weak**, particularly due to very high dropout rates and low learning achievements of pupils. The IEC at the primary level is particularly low (39 percent), which implies that more than half of public resources are wasted in paying for repeated grades or schooling for students who dropout before cycle completion.

**Economic Rationale for Public Investment in Sustaining Basic Education Enrollment in Sudan**

8. The rationale for public sector financing of basic education is well established. Investments under the Project would strengthen efficiency and equity at the basic level overall, likely contributing to improved learning outcomes at the school level. The pressing needs and challenges for both improved efficiency and equity warrant public sector support consistent with Sudan’s commitment to providing Universal Primary Education of reasonable quality to all children.

9. Investment in basic education in Sudan is justified by the low NER (69 percent) and completion rate (55 percent) and weak learning levels among enrolled students. National Learning Assessment conducted in all 18 states of Sudan found that Grade 3 students performed very poorly. On average, 40 percent of pupil are not able to read a single word. This suggests that there is not only a large proportion of school-age children out of school but even when in school many students are not learning.

**The Project’s Development Impact**

10. The project is expected to contribute positively to Sudan’s education system and national economic development. It aims to sustain enrollment in public schools during the economic crises and pandemic. To that end, it is expected that the proposed interventions will affect the probability of a child completing primary education and transitioning to the secondary level. This, in turn, will yield gains in labor earnings measured 3 Authors’ estimation based on 2018 School Census data and reported USD/SDG exchange rate (Economist).

Page 36 of 40

2018 School Census data
National Learning Assessment


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) over the course of a standard working life. The key project's economic impact is, therefore, estimated as the incremental benefit accruing to a representative child as the result of effects induced by the program's interventions.

11. Provision of school grants under the project is aimed at incentivizing schools to make better use of existing resources to achieve improved learning and efficiency goals through better retention of students. Gains in internal efficiency will lower the cost to the government for providing basic education: as less students fail and repeat grades, government spends fewer resources. Improvements in teacher knowledge and effort shall result in reduced dropouts in the course of the basic education cycle.

**Expected Economic Benefits**

12. The proposed project is likely to yield positive results on the education quality in the medium-run as it: (a) targets an area of intervention, basic education, that is critical for long-term school performance, as measured by standardized assessment; (b) supports and complements the Government’s reforms in this area; and (c) provides instrumental additional funding to support both cost-effective and well-targeted basic education programs.

13. The analysis was therefore restricted to the quantifiable economic impact and benefits. These comprise: (a) impact on internal efficiency estimates and cost savings, that is, government budget savings due to reduction of ‘inefficient’ expenditures on pupils that drop out (Internal Efficiency Gains), and (b) impact of completion probabilities in basic education, that is, direct private returns to schooling (External Efficiency Gains).

14. The importance of schooling and learning to economic growth and development is well documented.
Education is central to achieving the goals of eliminating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity.
High levels of education are often associated with improved economic opportunities, including higher improved access to jobs and higher lifetime wages. Education is also correlated with healthier life choices and increased voice and agency, the ability to make decisions and act on them. At the country-level, economic benefits include increased rates of economic growth through gains in productivity and a greater capacity to adopt new technologies. But education is not only instrumental in promoting development; it is also by itself an end of development.

15. However, recent evidence suggests that learning is more important for earnings and development than educational attainment (which fails to account for the quality of education). This issue is of particular importance in countries, including Sudan, where school enrollment has increased rapidly and therefore educational attainment but, in some cases, accompanied by a decline in the quality of schooling with adverse consequences for student learning. When student learning levels are low, this provides a strong indication that education systems are not performing as intended.

16. Education is a good predictor of wellbeing. Among Sudan’s population with higher education, two thirds are in the richest quintile of the population compared to only six percent among population without education Page 37 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) (figure A3-1). Probability of being poor – in the bottom 40 percent – is 61 percent lower for people with basic education compared to people without education.

Figure A3-1: Distribution of population in Sudan by education attainment and wealth quintiles Higher Secondary Primary None 30.4% 4.4% 6.7% 8.8% 10.2% 16.7% 16.1% 20.0% 24.3% 21.8% 28.9% 13.0% 16.5% 68.2% 26.2% 21.7% 42.7% 15.5% 6.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Poorest Second Middle Fourth Richest _Source:_ estimations based on Sudan MICS 2014/15 data.

17. Educational attainment is highly associated with literacy rates. Even among those that never completed basic education, the share of literate people is above 80 percent after completing at least six grades compared to only 15 percent of people that attended only first grade of basic education (figure A3-2).

Figure A3-2: Women's literacy rates in Sudan, 2014 Women's literacy rates 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Highest grade of basic education attended Weath index quintile Location _Source:_ estimations based on Sudan MICS, 2014/15 data.
_Note:_ a woman is literate if she is able to read parts of sentence or able to read whole sentence _Impact on Internal Efficiency Estimates and Cost Savings_ 18. The Project intends to sustain enrollment in public schools in Sudan, which will lead to improved Internal Efficiency of Basic Education through preventing children from dropping out, thereby improving survival rates between Grades 1 and 8.

Page 38 of 40

Sudan MICS 2014/15 data
Sudan MICS, 2014/15 data


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) 19. The current economic analysis presents estimates of the efficiency gains in basic education to 2021, based on enrollment estimates employing UN population projections, average values from recent years for intake into Grade 1 of basic education (from the School Census) relative to population, and recent trends in promotion and retention in each grade of basic school. The analysis employs the same projections as the current Education Sector Strategic Plan (ESSP) including for the GDP growth (IMF/World Bank), share of domestic resources spent on education (a 0.5 p.p. annual increase from 9.8 percent in 2017/18).

20. _Gains from improved Internal Efficiency_ . The project objective is to sustain enrollment in public schools meaning that the enrollment in target schools is to increase at the rate of the population growth – 2.5 percent per annum: from 5.40 million pupils to 5.54 million in 2021. The analysis is built on the assumption that survival and repetition rates will remain unchanged.

21. We compare inefficient government spending under the expected scenario and a scenario, under which there is no increase in the student enrollment. The following formula is used to estimate inefficient spending: 8 x x

[i] ∗Gi Inefficient Spending = ∑( [D][i] Gi x ) ∗S [x], x i=1 where Dxi is the dropout rates in grade i in year x in target schools; Gxi is the number of pupils enrolled in grade i in year x ; S [x] is the projected government spending per pupil in year x .

22. According to the results of the analysis, the share of inefficient public spending in public schools is equivalent to 16 percent of overall public expenditures in education in Sudan. If all public schools will sustain the current level of survival, the share of inefficient public spending would decrease by 0.6 percentage points by 2021 compared to the scenario where the enrollment numbers are stagnant. This improvements in spending efficiency translate into the Government savings in basic education equivalent to SDG 122 million (US$ 2.6 million) in 2019-2021 [ 4] .

_Impact on External Efficiency: Impact on Completion Probabilities in Basic Education_ xi is the dropout rates in grade i in year x in target schools; Gi where Di 23. The proposed Project is likely to sustain the current level of survival rates and completion probabilities in basic education. In 2014, only 57.4 percent of 10-to-13-year-olders had at least four years of completed basic education, i.e. more than third of that cohort failed to complete lower primary education on time (table A32). We expect that by 2021 there would be 40 thousand more pupils in grades 6-8 in public schools with a high probability of the majority (80 percent) being literate and functionally numerate.

4 Estimations based on the enrollment projections and the current official exchange rate – 47.5 SDG/USD.

Page 39 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Sudan Basic Education Emergency Support Project (P172812) Table A3-2: Education Completion Rates in Sudan (2014) Male, Urban Male, Rural Female, Urban Female, Total Rural Grade 4, lower basic (10-13-year-olds) 64.6 50.8 68.9 56.9 57.5 Grade 6 (12-15-year-olds) 48.2 38.0 47.0 45.1 43.3 Grade 8, upper basic (14-17-year-olds) 37.5 29.7 46.1 35.0 35.4 _Source:_ authors’ estimation based on Sudan MICS data 24. _Conclusion_ . The project is designed to support activities that address key issues in basic education identified by the 2018 Education Sector Analysis and the ESSP for 2019-2024: limited and inequitable access to basic education due to supply-side and demand-side constraints; poor quality of education service delivery and low student learning levels; and insufficient institutional capacity for efficient education system planning and management.

25. Project objectives and performance targets are based on the detailed financial analysis and simulations using assumptions for basic education enrollment, student repetition, student-teacher ratios, class size, and economic growth, share of public resource to education (and to basic education) and the official exchange rate. These objectives and targets are financially feasible if the national education budget is supported by external funding. The selected activities draw on international experiences and best-practice and past projects in Sudan and elsewhere as relevant.

Page 40 of 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Project (P173846)

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

|BFP|World Bank Facilitated Procurement|
|---|---|
|CDC|Center for Disease Prevention and Control|
|CERC|Contingency Emergency Response Component CERC|
|CHE|Current Health Expenditure|
|CPF|Country Partnership Framework|
|COVID-19|Coronavirus Disease|
|ESCP|Environmental and Social Commitment Plan|
|ESMP|Environmental and Social Management Plan|
|FAO|Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations|
|FA|Framework Agreement|
|FCS|Health Pooled Fund_(Fonds Commun pour la Santé_)|
|FM|Financial Management|
|GDP|Gross domestic product|
|GRS|Grievance Redress Service|
|HCI|Human Capital Index|
|HCR|High Commissioner for Refugees|
|HEIS|Hands-on Expanded Implementation Support|
|HIV/AIDS|Human Immunodeficiency virus|
|HNP|Health, Nutrition and Population|
|IBRD|International Bank for Reconstruction and Development|
|IDA|International Development Agency|
|IDSR|Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response|
|IFR|Interim Financial Reports|
|IHR|International Health Regulations|
|IMF|International Monetary Fund|
|IPC|Infection Protection Control|
|IPF|Investment Project Financing|
|JMP|Joint Monitoring Program|
|M&E|Monitoring and Evaluation|
|MoPH|Ministry of Public Health|
|MPA|Multiphase Programmatic Approach|
|ICMWMP|Infection Control Medical Waste Management Plan|
|OIE|World Organization of Animal Health|
|PAD|Project Appraisal Document|
|PDO|Project Development Objective|
|PIM|Project Implementation Manual|
|PIU|Project Implementation Unit|
|PPE|Personal Protective Equipment|
|PPSD|Project Procurement Strategy for Development|
|REDISSE|Regional Disease Surveillance System Strengthening Project|
|RfQ|Request for Quotations|
|SARS|Severe acute Respiratory Syndrome|


Input:
**resulting in a large increase in the absolute number of poor people in Niger** . Per capita gross domestic product
(GDP) was US$895 in 2015 (constant 2011 US$), making Niger one of the poorest nations in the world. Between
2005 and 2014, the incidence of income poverty fell from approximately 54 percent to approximately 45 percent.
However, the absolute number of people living in poverty rose from 6.8 million in 2005 to 8.2 million in 2014.
Niger remains a low-income country with a very poor human development indicator. Niger ranks 155 out 157
countries in the Human Capital Index (HCI) which shows that Nigeriens born today will only reach 32 percent of
their productivity potential, due to serious deficiencies in health and education services. Equally worrying is the
fact that 47 out of 100 children are stunted, at risk of cognitive and physical limitations that can last a lifetime.

9. **Niger confirmed its first case of COVID-19 on March 19, 2020. As of March 22, Niger had 2 known cases**


Input:
12. **Niger has high maternal, child and infant mortality and very high fertility rates** . Although under-5
mortality declined steadily from 109 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2012 to 84 in 2018, it remains above the
regional sub-Saharan African (SSA) average. [6] Similarly, infant mortality has dropped from 57 to 48 deaths per
1,000 live births between 2012 and 2018. [7] Maternal mortality remains very high, with 535 maternal deaths per
100,000 live births in 2012. [8] Much of the progress made on health is hindered by rapid population growth and low
utilization of health services. Emerging research indicates that COVID-19 is most serious in the elderly, and Niger’s
population is predominantly young. However, the epidemiological profile in Niger is substantially different than
in other regions where the disease has rapidly escalated. In 2017, the leading causes of death in Niger were all
communicable, and were malaria, diarrheal disease and lower respiratory infections. [9] The impact of COVID-19 in
a setting where communicable diseases and malnutrition are highly prevalent is still unknown.

---
[6] World Development Indicators. Accessed March 2020 from https://databank.worldbank.org/reports.aspx?source=worlddevelopment-indicators#
[7] World Development Indicators, 2020.
[8] World Development Indicators, 2020.
[9] Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Accessed March 2020 from http://www.healthdata.org/niger


Input:
**The World Bank**
Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet (P173846)

**Intermediate Results Indicators by Components**

|RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO|Col2|Col3|Col4|
|---|---|---|---|
|

**Indicator Name**
|
**DLI**
|
**Baseline**|
**End Target**|
|**Component 1: Emergency COVID-19 Response**|**Component 1: Emergency COVID-19 Response**|**Component 1: Emergency COVID-19 Response**|**Component 1: Emergency COVID-19 Response**|
|Personal protective equipment (PPE) kits delivered to health
facilities (Number) (Number)||0.00|12,000.00|
|Health staff trained in infection prevention per MOH-approved
protocols (Number) (Number)||0.00|300.00|
|Laboratories with trained staff and consumables for collecting
COVID-19 samples and transporting to National Public Health
laboratory (CERMES) (Number) (Number)||0.00|12.00|
|Proportion of targeted healthcare facilities with clinical capacity
for COVID-19 patients (Number)||0.00|90.00|
|**Component 2: Communication campaign, community engagement and Behavior change**|**Component 2: Communication campaign, community engagement and Behavior change**|**Component 2: Communication campaign, community engagement and Behavior change**|**Component 2: Communication campaign, community engagement and Behavior change**|
|Country has developed a communication and risk
communication plan including community engagement
strategies (Yes/No)||No|Yes|
|Radio Stations broadcast COVID-19 risk communication message
(Number of days) (Number)||0.00|90.00|
|**Component 3: Implementation Management and Monitoring and Evaluation**|**Component 3: Implementation Management and Monitoring and Evaluation**|**Component 3: Implementation Management and Monitoring and Evaluation**|**Component 3: Implementation Management and Monitoring and Evaluation**|
|M&E system established and implemented to monitor project
progress (Yes/No)
||No|Yes|

Page 29 of 34


Input:
**The World Bank**
Niger COVID-19 Emergency Response Projet (P173846)

|Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator Name **|**Definition/Description **|**Frequency **|**Datasource **|**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **|**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|
|Personal protective equipment (PPE) kits
delivered to health facilities (Number)|Cumulative number of PPE
kits distributed to health
facilities|Quarterly
|Project
reports
|||
|Health staff trained in infection
prevention per MOH-approved protocols
(Number)|Cumulative number of staff
receiving infection
prevention control (IPC) or
similar training via the
project|Monthly
|Project report
|Training reports
|MOH/PIU
|
|Laboratories with trained staff and
consumables for collecting COVID-19
samples and transporting to National
Public Health laboratory (CERMES)
(Number)|Number of laboratories or
facilities with trained staff
and consumables for
collecting COVID-19
samples and transporting
to National Public Health
laboratory (CERMES)|Quarterly
|Laboratory
training report
|Project monitoring
|CERMES
|
|Proportion of targeted healthcare
facilities with clinical capacity for COVID-
19 patients|Numerator: Total number
of targeted healthcare
facilities with capacity to
treat COVID-19 patients

Denominator: Total
number of targeted health|Quarterly
|Health facility
supervision /
assessment
report
|Project monitoring
|DRSE
|

Page 31 of 34


Input:
**The World Bank**
Yemen COVID-19 Response Project (P173862)

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

|APA Alternate Procurement Arrangement|Col2|
|---|---|
|CDC
Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States|CDC
Center for Disease Control and Prevention of the United States|
|CBY
Central Bank of Yemen|CBY
Central Bank of Yemen|
|CERC
Contingent Emergency Response Component|CERC
Contingent Emergency Response Component|
|COVID-19
Coronavirus Disease 2019|COVID-19
Coronavirus Disease 2019|
|DHO
District Health Office|DHO
District Health Office|
|DO
Development Objective|DO
Development Objective|
|EHNP
Emergency Health and Nutrition Project|EHNP
Emergency Health and Nutrition Project|
|EROM
Emergency Response Operational Manual|EROM
Emergency Response Operational Manual|
|ESF
Environmental and Social Framework|ESF
Environmental and Social Framework|
|ESMF
Environmental and Social Management Framework|ESMF
Environmental and Social Management Framework|
|ESRS
Environmental and Social Review Summary|ESRS
Environmental and Social Review Summary|
|FM
Financial Management|FM
Financial Management|
|FTF
Fast Track COVID-19 Facility|FTF
Fast Track COVID-19 Facility|
|GHO
Governorate Health Office|GHO
Governorate Health Office|
|GRS
Grievance Redress Service|GRS
Grievance Redress Service|
|IBRD
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development|IBRD
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development|
|IDA
International Development Association|IDA
International Development Association|
|IDP
Internally Displaced Person|IDP
Internally Displaced Person|
|IDSR
Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response|IDSR
Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response|
|IFR
Interim Unaudited Financial Reports|IFR
Interim Unaudited Financial Reports|
|IHR
International Health Regulations|IHR
International Health Regulations|
|IMF
International Monetary Fund|IMF
International Monetary Fund|
|INGO
International Non-Governmental Organization|INGO
International Non-Governmental Organization|
|IPF
Investment Project Financing|IPF
Investment Project Financing|
|LNGO
Local Non-Governmental Organization|LNGO
Local Non-Governmental Organization|
|M&E
Monitoring and Evaluation|M&E
Monitoring and Evaluation|
|MOPHP
Ministry of Public Health and Population|MOPHP
Ministry of Public Health and Population|
|MPA
Multiphase Programmatic Approach|MPA
Multiphase Programmatic Approach|
|NGO
Non-Governmental Organization|NGO
Non-Governmental Organization|
|OIE
World Organization for Animal Health|OIE
World Organization for Animal Health|
|PAD
Project Appraisal Document|PAD
Project Appraisal Document|
|PDO
Project Development Objective|PDO
Project Development Objective|
|PPE
Personal protective equipment|PPE
Personal protective equipment|
|PPSD
Project Procurement Strategy for Development|PPSD
Project Procurement Strategy for Development|
|SARS
Severe acute respiratory syndrome|SARS
Severe acute respiratory syndrome|
|SDG
Sustainable Development Goals|SDG
Sustainable Development Goals|
|SEA
Sexual Exploitation and Assault|SEA
Sexual Exploitation and Assault|
|SEP|Stakeholder Engagement Plan|


Input:
**The World Bank**
Yemen COVID-19 Response Project (P173862)

14. Multiple disease outbreaks requiring emergency response - cholera, diphtheria, measles, dengue, scabies - often
emerge in several and unpredictable locations. After the decline of cholera cases at the end of 2017, Yemen's
shattered health system started to battle diphtheria, which was a challenge given the ongoing conflict and blockades
creating daily threats to public health. Moreover, given the ongoing logistical difficulties, bringing the needed medical
equipment and supplies with specialized medical staff into the needy areas in Yemen is difficult rendering all the
humanitarian and health actors struggling. According to the analysis conducted by the Health Cluster [4] consisting of
various partners, the main causes of avoidable deaths in Yemen are communicable diseases, maternal, perinatal and
nutritional conditions (together accounting for 50 percent of mortality) and non-communicable diseases (39 percent
of mortality).

---
[4] It represents a partnership of 64 organizations in Yemen: local and international nongovernmental organizations and U.N. agencies that are


Input:
38. For their respective activities, WHO will use data collected by the GHOs and other implementing partners
(international and local NGOs) as per the standard reporting formats for all interventions at different levels on services
and supplies. Databases for each are maintained at national, governorate, and lower levels. At each WHO field office,
data will be collected and reviewed before it is consolidated at the WHO central level in the country by focal points
from the GHOs and NGO partners. The information management officers at field and country offices of WHO will
support this process. Regular technical and financial verification will be undertaken during visits by WHO staff, and
TPM agencies, using an agreed protocol. WHO will have an independent TPM mechanism in place to undertake
quarterly performance verification and field monitoring of their program activities. The TPM agency will provide
quarterly reports to WHO and the World Bank on the outputs as well as the delivery of services to the intended
beneficiaries. WHO will submit to the Bank technical and financial reports on a quarterly basis on the progress of the
project activities according to a template agreed with the Bank. To the extent possible, all data collected and reported
on will be done in a gender- and age-disaggregated manner to contribute to a better understanding of the
demographic profile of the affected population.


Input:
**The World Bank**
Yemen COVID-19 Response Project (P173862)

and used in connection with the management of the COVID-19 outbreak under circumstances where measures to
ensure the legitimate, appropriate and proportionate use and processing of the data may not feature in national law
or data governance regulations or be routinely collected and managed in health information systems. In order to
guard against abuse of personal data, the Project will follow WHO’s guidelines and procedures for dealing with such
data in those circumstances. These measures may include, by way of example, data minimization (collecting only data
that is necessary for the purpose); data accuracy (correct or erase data that are not necessary or are inaccurate), use
limitations (data are only used for legitimate and related purposes), data retention (retain data only for as long as they
are necessary), informing data subjects of use and processing of data, and allowing data subjects the opportunity to
correct information about them, etc. In practical terms, operations will ensure that these principles apply through
assessments of existing or development of new data governance mechanisms and data standards for emergency and
routine healthcare, data sharing protocols, rules or regulations, revision of relevant regulations, training, sharing of
global experience, unique identifiers for health system clients, strengthening of health information systems, etc.


Input:
|Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|
|Country has activated their public health
Emergency Operations Center for COVID-
19
Activation of public health
Emergency Operations
Center for COVID-19
Ongoing

WHO and
Governorate
Health
Offices (GHOs)

WHO and GHOs to
confirm the center is
activated and functional

WHO and GHOs
|Country has activated their public health
Emergency Operations Center for COVID-
19
Activation of public health
Emergency Operations
Center for COVID-19
Ongoing

WHO and
Governorate
Health
Offices (GHOs)

WHO and GHOs to
confirm the center is
activated and functional

WHO and GHOs
|Country has activated their public health
Emergency Operations Center for COVID-
19
Activation of public health
Emergency Operations
Center for COVID-19
Ongoing

WHO and
Governorate
Health
Offices (GHOs)

WHO and GHOs to
confirm the center is
activated and functional

WHO and GHOs
|Country has activated their public health
Emergency Operations Center for COVID-
19
Activation of public health
Emergency Operations
Center for COVID-19
Ongoing

WHO and
Governorate
Health
Offices (GHOs)

WHO and GHOs to
confirm the center is
activated and functional

WHO and GHOs
|Country has activated their public health
Emergency Operations Center for COVID-
19
Activation of public health
Emergency Operations
Center for COVID-19
Ongoing

WHO and
Governorate
Health
Offices (GHOs)

WHO and GHOs to
confirm the center is
activated and functional

WHO and GHOs
|Country has activated their public health
Emergency Operations Center for COVID-
19
Activation of public health
Emergency Operations
Center for COVID-19
Ongoing

WHO and
Governorate
Health
Offices (GHOs)

WHO and GHOs to
confirm the center is
activated and functional

WHO and GHOs
|
|Number of designated laboratories with
COVID-19 diagnostic equipment, test kits,
and reagents
|Designated laboratories
equipped with supplies for
COVID-19 such as
diagnostic equipment, test
kits, and reagents|Ongoing
|Designated
laboratories
and GHOs
|WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs
|WHO and GHOs
|


Input:
**The World Bank**
Yemen COVID-19 Response Project (P173862)

|Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|
|Number of health staff trained in infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Health staff receiving
infection prevention and
control training which
follows the protocols
developed by WHO
Every 6
months

WHO and
GHOs

WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs

WHO and GHOs
|Number of health staff trained in infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Health staff receiving
infection prevention and
control training which
follows the protocols
developed by WHO
Every 6
months

WHO and
GHOs

WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs

WHO and GHOs
|Number of health staff trained in infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Health staff receiving
infection prevention and
control training which
follows the protocols
developed by WHO
Every 6
months

WHO and
GHOs

WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs

WHO and GHOs
|Number of health staff trained in infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Health staff receiving
infection prevention and
control training which
follows the protocols
developed by WHO
Every 6
months

WHO and
GHOs

WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs

WHO and GHOs
|Number of health staff trained in infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Health staff receiving
infection prevention and
control training which
follows the protocols
developed by WHO
Every 6
months

WHO and
GHOs

WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs

WHO and GHOs
|Number of health staff trained in infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Health staff receiving
infection prevention and
control training which
follows the protocols
developed by WHO
Every 6
months

WHO and
GHOs

WHO to aggregate
reports from GHOs

WHO and GHOs
|
|Percentage of health staff expressing
satisfaction with training of infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Denominator: number of
health workers trained in
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Numerator: number of
health workers expressing
satisfaction with training of
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Every 6
months

Third party
monitoring

Interview of health
workers through third
party monitoring

WHO and GHOs
|Percentage of health staff expressing
satisfaction with training of infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Denominator: number of
health workers trained in
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Numerator: number of
health workers expressing
satisfaction with training of
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Every 6
months

Third party
monitoring

Interview of health
workers through third
party monitoring

WHO and GHOs
|Percentage of health staff expressing
satisfaction with training of infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Denominator: number of
health workers trained in
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Numerator: number of
health workers expressing
satisfaction with training of
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Every 6
months

Third party
monitoring

Interview of health
workers through third
party monitoring

WHO and GHOs
|Percentage of health staff expressing
satisfaction with training of infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Denominator: number of
health workers trained in
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Numerator: number of
health workers expressing
satisfaction with training of
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Every 6
months

Third party
monitoring

Interview of health
workers through third
party monitoring

WHO and GHOs
|Percentage of health staff expressing
satisfaction with training of infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Denominator: number of
health workers trained in
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Numerator: number of
health workers expressing
satisfaction with training of
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Every 6
months

Third party
monitoring

Interview of health
workers through third
party monitoring

WHO and GHOs
|Percentage of health staff expressing
satisfaction with training of infection
prevention and control per WHO
protocols
Denominator: number of
health workers trained in
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Numerator: number of
health workers expressing
satisfaction with training of
infection prevention and
control per WHO protocols
Every 6
months

Third party
monitoring

Interview of health
workers through third
party monitoring

WHO and GHOs
|
|M&E system established to monitor
COVID-19 preparedness and response
plan
|Establishment of
monitoring and evaluation
system for the COVID-19
preparedness and response
plan|
Ongoing
|WHO and
GHOs
|WHO and GHOs to
report on the
development/
establishment
|WHO and GHOs
|


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective February 29, 2020) Currency Unit = Turkish Lira 5. 96 TL = US$1 US$0.17 = TL 1 6.62 TL = EURO 1 EURO 0.15 = TL 1 Euro 1.0 = US$0.90954568 FISCAL YEAR January 1 - December 31 Regional Vice President: Cyril E Muller Country Director: Auguste Tano Kouame Regional Director: Fadia M. Saadah Practice Manager: Cem Mete Task Team Leader(s): Ahmet Levent Yener; Mattia Makovec


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) DATASHEET

**BASIC INFORMATION**
~~BASIC~~ ~~INFO~~ ~~TABLE~~ Country(ies) Project Name Turkey Formal Employment Creation Project Environmental and Social Risk Project ID Financing Instrument Process Classification Investment Project P171766 Substantial Financing

**Financing & Implementation Modalities**

Urgent Need or Capacity Constraints (FCC)

[ ] Multiphase Programmatic Approach (MPA) [ ] Contingent Emergency Response Component (CERC)

[ ] Series of Projects (SOP) [ ] Fragile State(s)

[ ] Disbursement-linked Indicators (DLIs) [ ] Small State(s)

[✓] Financial Intermediaries (FI) [ ] Fragile within a non-fragile Country

[ ] Project-Based Guarantee [ ] Conflict

[ ] Deferred Drawdown [✓] Responding to Natural or Man-made Disaster

[ ] Alternate Procurement Arrangements (APA) Expected Approval Date Expected Closing Date 31-Mar-2020 31-Dec-2024 Bank/IFC Collaboration No

**Proposed Development Objective(s)**

The project objective is to enhance the conditions for formal job creation by firms operating in provinces with high incidence of Syrians under Temporary Protection (SuTP), for the benefit of Turkish citizens and refugees.

Page 1 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766)

**Components**

**Component Name** **Cost (US$, millions)**

Loans targeting firms with high potential for job creation 345.77 Grants targeting firms conditional on job creation 76.94 Technical and Institutional Support 7.27

**Organizations**

Borrower: Development and Investment Bank of Turkey Implementing Agency: Development and Investment Bank of Turkey

**PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions)**

**SUMMARY-NewFin1**

**Total Project Cost** 430.85

**Total Financing** 347.35

**of which IBRD/IDA** 347.35

**Financing Gap** 83.50

**DETAILS-NewFinEnh1**

**World Bank Group Financing**

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 347.35

**Expected Disbursements (in US$, Millions)**

**WB Fiscal Year** 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

**Annual** 0.00 141.91 152.62 37.20 15.63 0.00

**Cumulative** 0.00 141.91 294.53 331.73 347.35 347.35

**INSTITUTIONAL DATA**

Page 2 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766)

**Practice Area (Lead)** **Contributing Practice Areas**

Social Protection & Jobs Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation

**Climate Change and Disaster Screening**

This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks

**SYSTEMATIC OPERATIONS RISK-RATING TOOL (SORT)**

**Risk Category** **Rating**

1. Political and Governance ⚫ Moderate

2. Macroeconomic ⚫ Substantial 3. Sector Strategies and Policies ⚫ Moderate 4. Technical Design of Project or Program ⚫ Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability ⚫ Substantial 6. Fiduciary ⚫ Moderate 7. Environment and Social ⚫ Substantial 8. Stakeholders ⚫ Moderate 9. Other ⚫ Substantial 10. Overall ⚫ Substantial

**COMPLIANCE**

**Policy**
Does the project depart from the CPF in content or in other significant respects?

[ ] Yes [✓] No Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies?

[ ] Yes [✓] No Page 3 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) Page 7 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766)

**I.** **STRATEGIC CONTEXT**

**A. Country Context**

1. **Turkey has high growth potential, but recent shocks have affected the sustainability of its**
**economic gains since the early 2000s** . After the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009, growth has been
increasingly fueled by credit growth and accumulation of (mostly foreign exchange) private sector debt, together with temporary stimulus policies. These led to declining productivity growth and macroeconomic imbalances in late 2017/early 2018. The situation was compounded by exogenous factors including multiple election cycles, regional conflict, and difficult international relations.

2. **Economic vulnerabilities that had accumulated over the past four years came to a head in mid-**
**2018.** Policy stimulus in the aftermath of the 2016 failed coup led to economic overheating. Though
growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2017, this came at a cost of double-digit inflation and a large current account deficit. A hardening of external economic conditions in mid-2018, together with tense international relations, led to a depreciation in the Turkish lira. This profoundly affected the real and financial sectors. Corporations and banks suffered due to high foreign exchange debt, annual inflation peaked at 25 percent in October 2018, the economy went into recession in the second half of 2018, and unemployment spiked from 10 percent in January 2018 to 14 percent in June 2019.

3. **The Turkish economy over the past 12 months has experienced major adjustments.** Current account imbalances have declined, banks have reduced their external exposure, and portfolio flows have started to recover. These adjustments have lessened external vulnerabilities that had accumulated in the run up to the August 2018 currency shock. They have also contributed to a more stable lira, notwithstanding bouts of currency volatility. There has also been steady disinflation over this period.
These developments were supported by selected policy responses and accommodative global monetary conditions. Even so, foreign exchange reserves have eroded over the past two years, exposing Turkey to external market pressure.

4. **Stagnating output, high costs of production, and high consumer prices have led to significant**
**job losses and falling real wages.** Unemployment among the youth is particularly high, jumping from 19
percent to 25 percent between May 2018 and May 2019. Average real wages declined by 2.6 percent between 2017 and 2018 but have picked up more recently due to adjustments to the minimum wage.
Poorer households have been most affected because many low-income workers are employed in construction and agriculture—the sectors that saw the biggest decline in jobs. Moreover, the long-term impact of the real wage effects is greater for the poorest households because they have limited coping mechanisms.

5. **Turkey now faces a two-fold challenge.** In the near-term to extricate itself from a downturn whilst maintaining the disinflation momentum, navigating an uncertain external environment, and addressing corporate debt overhang; and to put in place appropriate policy and institutional settings to support a shift to a sustainable-medium term growth model. The pace and sustainability of Turkey’s recovery will depend on reducing economic uncertainty backed by consistent policy mix. The economy has stabilized in the short-term. The gross domestic product is projected to rebound to 3 percent and 4 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively. However, given the high degree of uncertainty in the global outlook, restoring Page 8 of 86