Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) 8. **Among different credit line products, public credit guarantee schemes tend to be more**
**systematically associated with improved firm performance, particularly job growth** . Importantly, such
growth appears to be sustained over time, even several years upon obtaining the loan _._ In Colombia, the positive employment effects of access to a credit line were found to be increasing from the year of disbursement through the following two years (respectively, 3.7 percent, 5.5 percent, and 6.6 percent). [53] In another study in Brazil, the average increase by 24 employees among firms with access to a line of credit from the Brazilian Development Bank was sustained for six years after the disbursement of the credit. [54] Across Central, Eastern and South Eastern Europe, the EU MAP (Multi-Annual Program) targeted to SMEs led to a 14 percent to 18 percent increase in employment at the aggregate level, with effects sustained over the first five years after the signature date. [55] The same program was found to have positive and significant impacts also in Italy, the Benelux, and the Scandinavian countries. Particularly, it was reflected in a 16.9 percent increase in employment among beneficiary SMEs relative to nonbeneficiary SMEs. Moreover, beneficiary firms saw a 19.6 percent increase in assets, a 14.8 percent increase in sales, a 1.0 percent increase in innovation, and a 30.0 percent decrease in the probability of default. Stronger program effects were observed for smaller and younger firms. [56] Finally, a government-backed guarantee scheme in Malaysia generated an average net increase of 103 jobs across beneficiary SMEs. [57] 9. **Loans channeled through state-owned banks or financial intermediary institutions tend to**
**include better credit conditions than loans from other institutions** . In the case of Colombia’s Bancoldex,
loans from this institution to micro, small, and medium enterprises and LEs resulted in an improved credit structure and increased access to credit for beneficiaries, in the form of 24.4 percent and 18.2 percent increases in loan size in the year of disbursement and in the following year, respectively. [58] Positive and significant results were also observed for employment creation and other business outcomes. Specifically, beneficiaries registered a 11 percent increase in employment, a 24 percent increase in output, a 70 percent increase in investment, and a 10 percent increase in productivity. Such increases in output, investment, and productivity tended to be associated with longer-term loans (more than five years) than shorter-term loans (less than five years) and were seen to persist up to four years after disbursement. [59] 10. **While further work is needed to understand why state-owned banks may offer better credit**
**conditions, existing evidence suggests that those loans do not simply substitute credit that private**
**institutions would be willing to offer under similar conditions** . The second-tier design, however, implies
that the intermediaries take on the risk of default. As a result, they face greater incentive to screen 53 Arráiz, I., M. Meléndez, and R. Stucchi. 2012. "Partial Credit Guarantees and Firm Performance: Evidence from the Colombian National Guarantee Fund." IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4089, Inter-American Development Bank.
54 De Negri, J., A. Maffioli, A. Rodríguez, and C. Gonzalo. 2012. "The Impact of Public Credit Programs on Brazilian Firms." IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3826, Inter-American Development Bank.
55 Asdrubali, P., and S. Signore. 2015. "The Economic Impact of EU Guarantees on Credit to SMEs Evidence from CESEE Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 002, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
56 Bertoni, F., J. Brault, M. Colombo, A. Quas, and S. Signore. 2019. "Econometric Study on the Impact of EU Loan Guarantee Financial Instruments on Growth and Jobs of SMEs," EIF Working Paper Series 2019/54.
57 Boocock, G., and M. Shariff. 2005. “Measuring the Effectiveness of Credit Guarantee Schemes. Evidence from Malaysia.” _International Small Business Journal_ 23, no. 4: 427-453.
58 Eslava, M., A. Maffioli, and M. Melendez. 2012. “Second-tier Government Banks and Access to Credit: Micro-Evidence from Colombia.” IDB Working Papers, Series No. IDB-WP-308.
59 Eslava, M., A. Maffioli, and M. Melendez. 2012. “Second-tier Government Banks and Firm Performance. Micro-Evidence from Colombia.” IDB Working Papers, Series No. IDB-WP-294.

Page 83 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) profitable from unprofitable businesses to minimize risks. The implication is that funds can be mostly provided to sounder or higher-potential enterprises which are not necessarily the most credit constrained, rather than those firms that face higher obstacles to accessing credit and which, as mentioned above, tend to benefit the most from accessing credit in terms of higher employment growth.

11. **This raises the question of whether funds may be most effective in generating a positive impact**
**on performance if they are directed at firms that face the severest difficulties in accessing credit** .
Targeting the most promising and higher-potential firms carries undeniable benefits. However, this strategy could be integrated with an effort to target firms that are the most credit constrained, such as young firms that lack a credit history or collateral requirements, but which are entering promising lines of business, to maximize the impact of the access to credit.

12. **High-income countries provide a more mixed evidence on the effectiveness of public credit**
**guarantee schemes in generating jobs** . In high-income countries, employment growth may benefit from
measures targeted at improving relationship banking and to ease procyclicality, especially in economies where SMEs constitute the bulk of economic and productive activity. Across 11 OECD countries, neither direct government loans nor government-backed loans were found to have an impact on employment.
Rather, reinforcement of relationship banking and financial stability steps to ease procyclicality were observed to be more successful, generating a 12.8 percent to 18.2 percent increase and a 15.0 percent increase in employment, respectively. [60] Government-backed credit guarantees may be associated with greater risk-taking behavior and moral hazards by lending institutions. Nevertheless, they also seem to be associated with a larger size of loans as well as less stringent standards and lower cost of borrowing. As several studies reviewed here show that higher-value loans also tend to have greater and more positive impacts on employment generation, the success of public credit guarantee program may depend on finding the right balance between employment and financial stability goals. [61] 13. **Public credit guarantee schemes seem to have no impact on labor productivity** . In Brazil, loans from Brazilian Development Bank from micro, small, and medium enterprises and LEs were shown to have no significant impact on productivity, with the latter measured as real wages (De Negri et al. 2012). While this result may depend upon how productivity is measured, it proves consistent across the reviewed cases in both developed and developing countries. This suggests that borrowing firms employ extra capital mainly as working capital (when this is allowed by the lender’s criteria), rather than investing it in capital stock.

14. **Albeit popular, microloans are found to hardly increase employment and profits** . Only three microloan programs reviewed were specifically targeted at employment generation. Two of these programs, implemented in Bosnia and Herzegovina, increased the likelihood for beneficiaries of being self-employed and owning a business by 6 percent. However, effects were not observed beyond 14 months from disbursement. Moreover, the effects of microloans were heterogeneous, depending upon the characteristics of the borrowers at baseline. In particular, the impact on self-employment and business creation was mainly driven by highly educated beneficiaries, who tend to open their business in urban 60 Seo, Ji‐Yong. 2017. "A Study of Effective Financial Support for SMEs to Improve Economic and Employment Conditions: Evidence from OECD Countries." _Managerial and Decision Economics_ 38 (3): 432-442.
61 Gropp, Reint, et al. 2014. “The Impact of Public Guarantees on Bank Risk-Taking: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.” _Review_ _of Finance_ 18 (2): 457-488.

Page 84 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) sectors, rather than lower-educated beneficiaries, who instead were more likely to start a business in the rural sector. [62] 15. **Conventional microloan contracts, typically including short repayment periods or no grace**
**periods, often fail to generate growth at the extensive margins** . Often the reason behind such limitation
is that the rigidity of conventional debt contract terms discourages capital-constrained or poor entrepreneurs from engaging in riskier but higher-return investments. By contrast, different contract structures, including grace periods and/or individual liability, may promote firm growth by allowing for a more balanced risk- and revenue-sharing between the investors and the borrowers. [63] While repayment flexibility or grace periods in the debt contract terms have been found to have positive and significant impacts on business outcomes such as profits, revenues, and business assets, their effects on employment generation is ambiguous at best. In one study in Bangladesh, repayment flexibility had no employment impacts for collateral-free loan borrowers, whereas it led to a 42 percent increase for collateral-backed microloans borrowers. However, treatment effects were associated with a larger loan size and higher schooling levels among collateral-backed clients. [64] In sum, microloans seem to have clearer impacts on stabilizing income and in securing the survival and continuation of existing businesses than on creating new employment. This implies that increased access to capital through microloans may contribute more to employment protection than employment creation.

16. **Similarly, the impact on firm growth of capital alone, when provided through cash or in-kind**
**grants, remains unclear** . While a few studies underscore positive results on profits, other studies shed
light on the short-term or insignificant nature of those impacts. Especially, grants appear to be more successful in enhancing firm survival, provided that they are distributed in kind and paired with other accompanying measures, such as training programs. In Sri Lanka, unconditional one-time cash or in-kind grants resulted in a 4.6 percent to 5.3 percent increase in monthly returns to capital among beneficiary microenterprises, although returns were higher for in-kind grants. [65] A follow-up study showed that combining a savings incentive program either with a wage subsidy to hire more employees or a business training program led, respectively, to a 0.23 and 0.19 increase in the number of workers only in the short term (one year). [66] In Ghana, positive impacts on monthly profits (US$21–US$31) among micro firms were associated only with in-kind grants but no effect was observed for cash grants. [67] Finally, in Northern Uganda providing unconditional, unsupervised lump-sum cash transfers to microentrepreneurs to pay for vocational training, tools, and business start-up costs produced 25 percent increase in employment 62 Augsburg, Britta, de H. Ralph, H. Heike and M., Costas. 2014, “Microfinance at the Margin: Experimental Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina”, WZB Discussion Paper, No. SP II 2014-304, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB), Berlin; and Augsburg, Britta, et al. 2015. “The Impacts of Microcredit: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina.” _American Economic Journal:_ _Applied Economics_ 7, 1 (January): 183–203.
63 Field, Erica, P., Rohini, P. John, and R., Natalia. 2013. “Does the Classic Microfinance Model Discourage Entrepreneurship Among the Poor? Experimental Evidence from India.” _American Economic Review_ 103 (6): 2196–2226.
64 Battaglia, M., S. Gulesci, and A. Madestam. 2019. “Repayment Flexibility and Risk Taking: Experimental Evidence from Credit Contracts.” Working Paper. Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London.
65 De Mel, S., D. McKenzie, and C. Woodruff. 2008. “Returns to Capital in Microenterprises: Evidence from a Field Experiment.” _The Quarterly Journal of Economics_ 123 (4): 1329–1327.
66 De Mel, S., D. McKenzie, and C. Woodruff. 2013. “What Generates Growth in Microenterprises? Experimental Evidence on Capital, Labor, and Training.” CAGE Online Working Paper Series 212.
67 Fafchamps, M., D. McKenzie, S. Quinn, and C. Woodruff. 2011. “When Is Capital Enough to Get Female Microentrepreneurs Growing? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Ghana.” NBER Working Paper No. 17207.

Page 85 of 86


Input:
**The World Bank**
Formal Employment Creation Project (P171766) outside home for men and 50 percent increase for women, as well as a monthly net income increase by US$9. [68] 17. **Reductions in payroll taxes, costs of registration, and social security contributions, and financial**
**incentives can boost employment growth** . Especially reduction in taxes and social security contributions
are associated with positive, large, and statistically significant impacts on both formal employment creation and firm registration. A business regulation reform in Mexico was associated with 3.8 percent increase in firm formalization, amounting to 902 firms per municipality, and with a 2.8 percent increase in employment in eligible firms [69] Following the introduction of two employment subsidy schemes in Turkey, formal employment increased by 5 percent to 13 percent under the first scheme and by 11 percent to 15 percent under the second scheme. [70] Lastly, among Integrated System for the Payment of Taxes and Social Security Contributions of Micro and Small Enterprises (SIMPLES) beneficiaries in Brazil, the number of formal firms increased by 7.5 percent, while tax registration increased by 7.2 percent.
Furthermore, newly registered firms showed a 57 percent increase in revenues and a 49 percent increase in profits as a result of formalization. [71] 18. **Whether the increase is caused by creation of new economic activity or registration of existing**
**firms and workers, however, greatly depends on the macroeconomic, legal, and fiscal context of a**
**country.** In particular, finance-based formalization interventions show lesser effectiveness under
conditions of high unemployment, slow growth, weak legal enforcement institutions, complex business registration procedures and high labor taxes, especially for low-wage workers. Under these circumstances, employment generation is more likely to be driven by formalization of existing businesses and workers than by newly created jobs and start-ups.

68 Blattman, C., N. Fiala, and S. Martinez. 2012. “Employment Generation in Rural Africa. Mid-Term Results from an Experimental Evaluation of the _Youth Opportunity Program_ in Northern Uganda.” DIW Berlin Discussion Paper no. 1201 (August): 1-76.
69 Bruhn, Miriam. 2008. “License to Sell: The Effect of Business Registration Reform on Entrepreneurial Activity in Mexico.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4538. World Bank, Washington, DC.
70 Betcherman, G. et al. 2010. “Do Employment Subsidies Work? Evidence from Regionally Targeted Subsidies in Turkey.” _Labor_ _Economics_ 17 (4): 710–22.
71 Fajnzylber, P., W. Maloney, and G. Montes-Rojas. 2011. “Does Formality Improve Micro-Firm Performance? Evidence from the Brazilian SIMPLES Program.” _Journal of Development Economics_ 94: 262–276.

Page 86 of 86


Input:
2. **Despite the strong economic growth, extreme poverty remains high in Djibouti** . Djibouti is a fragile state which
faces serious obstacles to poverty reduction and improved service delivery to its population. Limited arable land and
rainfall have had adverse effects on livelihoods and contributed to high level of food insecurity. Inequality in 2017 was
high, with an estimated Gini index of 0.42. In the same year, an estimated 21 percent of the Djiboutian population lived
in extreme poverty, spending less than Djibouti Francs (DJF) 111,783 per capita per year (equivalent to US$2.17 per day
in 2011 at purchasing power parity). Rural areas lagged behind the capital city showing higher rates of extreme poverty
(62.6 percent). [1] The refugee and migrant population put an additional stress on limited resources and services, including
for host communities.

3. **In 2017, Djibouti hosted over 25,700 registered refugees and asylum seekers from Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen,**

---
[1] DISED (2018) “Résultats de la Quatrième Enquête Djiboutienne Auprès des Ménages pour les Indicateurs Sociaux”


Input:
**especially for young children that represent the country’s future** . Djibouti ranks 172 out of 188 in the Human
Development Index (HDI), while data are not available to produce a ranking for Djibouti in the new Human Capital Index.
The most urgent priority for human capital development is for the youngest children, given that a large body of scientific
and economic research has shown that the early years of a child's life are critical for development of cognitive, physical,
and socioemotional skills, and that high-quality investments in the early years can have returns that surpass investments
in primary or secondary education.


Input:
**The World Bank**
Integrated Cash Transfer and Human Capital Project (P166220)

5. **Investments are needed for both the demand for and the supply of basic services that promote development**

**of human capital** . Djibouti’s education sector has improved in the last several years but continues to be confronted with
challenges of quality and access. Close to 19 percent of the school-age population remains out of school and access to
early learning opportunities, including quality preschool, is severely limited for low-income populations. In rural areas
especially, access to clean water and improved sanitation is very low. Djibouti is additionally challenged by the increasing
number of street children from neighboring countries. Climate and economic shocks continue to threaten poor and
vulnerable households’ ability to meet basic needs or invest in human capital. Research suggests that famine and
prolonged food and nutrition deprivation negatively affect cognitive development of children, especially during the
women’s prenatal and postnatal period (Agbor and Price, 2012; Almond et al., 2010). Finally, the influx of refugees has
disproportionately affected poor communities, where both refugees and their host communities have significant unmet
needs in terms of nutrition and access to basic services (health, education, water, sanitation).


Input:
8. **Djibouti lacks the adaptive capacity to cope with climate-induced shocks** . At US$1,927 in 2017, its GDP per capita,
is the third lowest in the MENA region. Low-income, vulnerable populations lack the resources to adapt to extreme
weather. [10] Poor households in MENA suffer the highest economic losses from floods, drought, and storms. [11] Improving
the resilience of vulnerable populations is a major priority of Djibouti’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
International assistance is needed to fund climate adaptation activities, which could cost the country €1.33 billion in a 4
⁰C scenario. [12]

9. **Djibouti’s Vision 2015-2035 and the 2017 national social protection strategy both recognize the importance of**

**combining SSNs with actions to build human capital, such as prevention of malnutrition and promotion of cognitive**

---
[10] Hallegatte et al, “Shockwaves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty”, World Bank, 2016.
[11] Wooden et al, “ _Impact of Weather Shocks on MENA Households_ ”, World Bank, 2014.


Input:
12. **Djibouti has been accumulating experience with community sessions to promote positive behaviors** . These
sessions, initiated under the Employment and Human Capital Safety Net Project [13] after the 2008 food crisis and expanded
in 2012, have provided tailored sessions on pre-natal care and for mothers with children under two years of age. The
sessions have also provided a platform to detect potential stunting of participating children by triggering a subsequent
home visit to provide more individualized counseling, and/or referral to the nearest health clinic. In a community-based
setting, a group of maximum 20 women (called ‘foyer’) come together once a month for three hours. Preliminary impact
evaluation results indicate an increase in pre-natal consultations, exclusive breast feeding (61 percent of children below
six months breastfed in the first six months) for participating households. Furthermore, participation in sessions show an
increase in the consumption of a diversified diet (55 percent vs. 37 percent) for children under five and an overall increase
in food consumption at the household level, (at 10 percent of food share and 9 percent in non-food) attributable to the
increase in household income resulting from the participation in the program. While nutrition behavior change will
henceforth be supported under the World Bank financed project Towards Zero Stunting in Djibouti Project (P164164),
the proposed project will continue to use the community session approach to support behavior change in other areas.

---
[13] Financed through a Japan Social Development Fund (JSDF) Grant.


Input:
49. **The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)** has prepared an assessment of Djibouti’s refugee
protection framework that is part of the basis for the determination of eligibility of Djibouti for the refugee sub-window.
UNHCR screens, tracks, and registers refugees and provides services in the areas of health, education, food security and
nutrition, water and sanitation, shelter, livelihood promotion, and logistics. The World Bank and the Government will
coordinate with UNHCR regarding the project’s support for refugees and host communities, including on the targeting of
communities with concentrations of refugees under component 3.

Page 18 of 44


Input:
59. The project will conduct a mid-term review and several evaluations to gauge progress towards the PDO, to assess
the impact of the project on the beneficiaries, the quality of the works carried out, as well as overall project efficiency.
For component 1, these evaluations will include a process evaluation and a targeting assessment to evaluate the accuracy
of safety net targeting procedures. For component 3, evaluations will include technical audits of infrastructures built (at
mid-term and end of project) and audits of adherence to environmental and social safeguards (at mid-term and end of
project). Beneficiary satisfaction surveys will also be conducted.

Page 20 of 44


Input:
**The World Bank**
Integrated Cash Transfer and Human Capital Project (P166220)

|Conditional cash transfers|Col2|Col3|
|---|---|---|
|Cash transfers paid to eligible beneficiaries (Amount(USD))||0.00
7,000,000.00|
|Community sessions organized as part of accompanying
measures (Number)||0.00
2,000.00|
|Community counselors trained to lead community sessions
(Number)||0.00
150.00|
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community sessions (Percentage)||0.00
75.00|

|Strengthening social protection delivery systems|Col2|Col3|
|---|---|---|
|PNSF beneficiary households with biometric data in the social
registry (Percentage)||0.00
80.00|
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within 15 days of scheduled
payment date (Percentage)||0.00
85.00|
|People in the social registry that received national identity cards
with the support of the project (Number)||0.00
1,000.00|
|PNSF complaints registered electronically and resolved by the
time of the next cash transfer payment (Percentage)||0.00
70.00|
|Refugee households included in the social registry (Number)||0.00
1,500.00|

Page 29 of 44


Input:
|Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|
|Beneficiaries of social safety net programs
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Beneficiaries of social safety net programs
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Beneficiaries of social safety net programs
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Beneficiaries of social safety net programs
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Beneficiaries of social safety net programs
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Beneficiaries of social safety net programs
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Beneficiaries of social safety net
programs - Female||Quarterly
|Project
administrativ
e data
|Routine monitoring
|SEAS
|

Page 30 of 44


Input:
|Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: Intermediate Results Indicators|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|**Indicator Name **
**Definition/Description **
**Frequency **
**Datasource **
**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **
**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|
|Cash transfers paid to eligible
beneficiaries
Total amount of cash
transfers paid
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Cash transfers paid to eligible
beneficiaries
Total amount of cash
transfers paid
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Cash transfers paid to eligible
beneficiaries
Total amount of cash
transfers paid
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Cash transfers paid to eligible
beneficiaries
Total amount of cash
transfers paid
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Cash transfers paid to eligible
beneficiaries
Total amount of cash
transfers paid
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Cash transfers paid to eligible
beneficiaries
Total amount of cash
transfers paid
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Community sessions organized as part of
accompanying measures|Number of community
sessions under Sub-|Quarterly
|Project
administrativ|Routine monitoring
|SEAS
|

Page 31 of 44

**ME PDO Table SPACE**


Input:
**The World Bank**
Integrated Cash Transfer and Human Capital Project (P166220)

|component 1.2 e data|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Community counselors trained to lead
community sessions
Number of community
counselors (mères
conseillères) trained to
deliver community sessions
as part of the accompanying
measures of the project
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

  SEAS
|Community counselors trained to lead
community sessions
Number of community
counselors (mères
conseillères) trained to
deliver community sessions
as part of the accompanying
measures of the project
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

  SEAS
|Community counselors trained to lead
community sessions
Number of community
counselors (mères
conseillères) trained to
deliver community sessions
as part of the accompanying
measures of the project
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

  SEAS
|Community counselors trained to lead
community sessions
Number of community
counselors (mères
conseillères) trained to
deliver community sessions
as part of the accompanying
measures of the project
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

  SEAS
|Community counselors trained to lead
community sessions
Number of community
counselors (mères
conseillères) trained to
deliver community sessions
as part of the accompanying
measures of the project
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

  SEAS
|Community counselors trained to lead
community sessions
Number of community
counselors (mères
conseillères) trained to
deliver community sessions
as part of the accompanying
measures of the project
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

  SEAS
|
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community
sessions
Percentage of beneficiaries
of the cash transfer program
who participate in
community sessions as part
of the accompanying
measures that are satisfied
with the sessions
Twice

Survey

Survey at middle and
end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community
sessions
Percentage of beneficiaries
of the cash transfer program
who participate in
community sessions as part
of the accompanying
measures that are satisfied
with the sessions
Twice

Survey

Survey at middle and
end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community
sessions
Percentage of beneficiaries
of the cash transfer program
who participate in
community sessions as part
of the accompanying
measures that are satisfied
with the sessions
Twice

Survey

Survey at middle and
end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community
sessions
Percentage of beneficiaries
of the cash transfer program
who participate in
community sessions as part
of the accompanying
measures that are satisfied
with the sessions
Twice

Survey

Survey at middle and
end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community
sessions
Percentage of beneficiaries
of the cash transfer program
who participate in
community sessions as part
of the accompanying
measures that are satisfied
with the sessions
Twice

Survey

Survey at middle and
end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with community
sessions
Percentage of beneficiaries
of the cash transfer program
who participate in
community sessions as part
of the accompanying
measures that are satisfied
with the sessions
Twice

Survey

Survey at middle and
end of project

SEAS
|
|PNSF beneficiary households with
biometric data in the social registry
Percentage of PNSF
beneficiary households with
biometric data either
directly in the social registry
or in a database linked to
the social registry
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households with
biometric data in the social registry
Percentage of PNSF
beneficiary households with
biometric data either
directly in the social registry
or in a database linked to
the social registry
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households with
biometric data in the social registry
Percentage of PNSF
beneficiary households with
biometric data either
directly in the social registry
or in a database linked to
the social registry
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households with
biometric data in the social registry
Percentage of PNSF
beneficiary households with
biometric data either
directly in the social registry
or in a database linked to
the social registry
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households with
biometric data in the social registry
Percentage of PNSF
beneficiary households with
biometric data either
directly in the social registry
or in a database linked to
the social registry
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households with
biometric data in the social registry
Percentage of PNSF
beneficiary households with
biometric data either
directly in the social registry
or in a database linked to
the social registry
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within
15 days of scheduled payment date
Percentage of beneficiaries
paid within 15 days of date
specified in POM
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within
15 days of scheduled payment date
Percentage of beneficiaries
paid within 15 days of date
specified in POM
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within
15 days of scheduled payment date
Percentage of beneficiaries
paid within 15 days of date
specified in POM
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within
15 days of scheduled payment date
Percentage of beneficiaries
paid within 15 days of date
specified in POM
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within
15 days of scheduled payment date
Percentage of beneficiaries
paid within 15 days of date
specified in POM
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|PNSF beneficiary households paid within
15 days of scheduled payment date
Percentage of beneficiaries
paid within 15 days of date
specified in POM
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|People in the social registry that received
national identity cards with the support of
the project
Number of people for whom
the project facilitated
obtaining a national identity
card or birth certificate
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People in the social registry that received
national identity cards with the support of
the project
Number of people for whom
the project facilitated
obtaining a national identity
card or birth certificate
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People in the social registry that received
national identity cards with the support of
the project
Number of people for whom
the project facilitated
obtaining a national identity
card or birth certificate
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People in the social registry that received
national identity cards with the support of
the project
Number of people for whom
the project facilitated
obtaining a national identity
card or birth certificate
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People in the social registry that received
national identity cards with the support of
the project
Number of people for whom
the project facilitated
obtaining a national identity
card or birth certificate
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People in the social registry that received
national identity cards with the support of
the project
Number of people for whom
the project facilitated
obtaining a national identity
card or birth certificate
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|PNSF complaints registered electronically
and resolved by the time of the next cash
transfer payment|Percentage of complaints i)
registered in PNSF MIS and
ii) with a resolution|Quarterly
|Project
administrativ
e data|Routine monitoring
|SEAS
|


Input:
**The World Bank**
Integrated Cash Transfer and Human Capital Project (P166220)

|communicated to the
complainant|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Refugee households included in the social
registry
Number of unique heads of
refugee households in the
registry, regardless of
poverty status or program
eligibility
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugee households included in the social
registry
Number of unique heads of
refugee households in the
registry, regardless of
poverty status or program
eligibility
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugee households included in the social
registry
Number of unique heads of
refugee households in the
registry, regardless of
poverty status or program
eligibility
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugee households included in the social
registry
Number of unique heads of
refugee households in the
registry, regardless of
poverty status or program
eligibility
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugee households included in the social
registry
Number of unique heads of
refugee households in the
registry, regardless of
poverty status or program
eligibility
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugee households included in the social
registry
Number of unique heads of
refugee households in the
registry, regardless of
poverty status or program
eligibility
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Communities trained on the
identification, implementation, and
maintenance of community sub-projects
Number of communities
having received all modules
of FGB training program
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Communities trained on the
identification, implementation, and
maintenance of community sub-projects
Number of communities
having received all modules
of FGB training program
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Communities trained on the
identification, implementation, and
maintenance of community sub-projects
Number of communities
having received all modules
of FGB training program
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Communities trained on the
identification, implementation, and
maintenance of community sub-projects
Number of communities
having received all modules
of FGB training program
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Communities trained on the
identification, implementation, and
maintenance of community sub-projects
Number of communities
having received all modules
of FGB training program
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Communities trained on the
identification, implementation, and
maintenance of community sub-projects
Number of communities
having received all modules
of FGB training program
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Community sub-projects constructed or
rehabilitated
Number of community sub-
project completed
(réception provisoire)
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Community sub-projects constructed or
rehabilitated
Number of community sub-
project completed
(réception provisoire)
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Community sub-projects constructed or
rehabilitated
Number of community sub-
project completed
(réception provisoire)
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Community sub-projects constructed or
rehabilitated
Number of community sub-
project completed
(réception provisoire)
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Community sub-projects constructed or
rehabilitated
Number of community sub-
project completed
(réception provisoire)
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Community sub-projects constructed or
rehabilitated
Number of community sub-
project completed
(réception provisoire)
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Community sub-projects functional one
year after completion
Percentage of infrastructure
assets rated as functional by
an independent technical
auditor one year after they
are completed (with
completion defined as
having passed the stage of
réception provisoire)
Once

Technical
audit report

Technical audit

SEAS
|Community sub-projects functional one
year after completion
Percentage of infrastructure
assets rated as functional by
an independent technical
auditor one year after they
are completed (with
completion defined as
having passed the stage of
réception provisoire)
Once

Technical
audit report

Technical audit

SEAS
|Community sub-projects functional one
year after completion
Percentage of infrastructure
assets rated as functional by
an independent technical
auditor one year after they
are completed (with
completion defined as
having passed the stage of
réception provisoire)
Once

Technical
audit report

Technical audit

SEAS
|Community sub-projects functional one
year after completion
Percentage of infrastructure
assets rated as functional by
an independent technical
auditor one year after they
are completed (with
completion defined as
having passed the stage of
réception provisoire)
Once

Technical
audit report

Technical audit

SEAS
|Community sub-projects functional one
year after completion
Percentage of infrastructure
assets rated as functional by
an independent technical
auditor one year after they
are completed (with
completion defined as
having passed the stage of
réception provisoire)
Once

Technical
audit report

Technical audit

SEAS
|Community sub-projects functional one
year after completion
Percentage of infrastructure
assets rated as functional by
an independent technical
auditor one year after they
are completed (with
completion defined as
having passed the stage of
réception provisoire)
Once

Technical
audit report

Technical audit

SEAS
|
|Beneficiaries satisfied with the
community infrastructures financed by
the project
Percentage of direct
beneficiaries of community
infrastructures that are
globally satisfied with the
infrastructures
Once

Survey

Survey at end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with the
community infrastructures financed by
the project
Percentage of direct
beneficiaries of community
infrastructures that are
globally satisfied with the
infrastructures
Once

Survey

Survey at end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with the
community infrastructures financed by
the project
Percentage of direct
beneficiaries of community
infrastructures that are
globally satisfied with the
infrastructures
Once

Survey

Survey at end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with the
community infrastructures financed by
the project
Percentage of direct
beneficiaries of community
infrastructures that are
globally satisfied with the
infrastructures
Once

Survey

Survey at end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with the
community infrastructures financed by
the project
Percentage of direct
beneficiaries of community
infrastructures that are
globally satisfied with the
infrastructures
Once

Survey

Survey at end of project

SEAS
|Beneficiaries satisfied with the
community infrastructures financed by
the project
Percentage of direct
beneficiaries of community
infrastructures that are
globally satisfied with the
infrastructures
Once

Survey

Survey at end of project

SEAS
|
|People provided with access to improved
sanitation services|The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation|Quarterly
|Project
administrativ
e data
|Routine monitoring
|SEAS
|


Input:
**The World Bank**
Integrated Cash Transfer and Human Capital Project (P166220)

|facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|People provided with access to
improved sanitation services - Female
(RMS requirement)
The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation
facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People provided with access to
improved sanitation services - Female
(RMS requirement)
The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation
facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People provided with access to
improved sanitation services - Female
(RMS requirement)
The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation
facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People provided with access to
improved sanitation services - Female
(RMS requirement)
The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation
facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People provided with access to
improved sanitation services - Female
(RMS requirement)
The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation
facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|People provided with access to
improved sanitation services - Female
(RMS requirement)
The indicator measures the
cumulative number of
people who benefited from
improved sanitation
facilities that have been
constructed through
operations supported by the
World Bank.
Quarterly

Project
administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
Number of refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3
Quarterly

Administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
Number of refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3
Quarterly

Administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
Number of refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3
Quarterly

Administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
Number of refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3
Quarterly

Administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
Number of refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3
Quarterly

Administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
Number of refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3
Quarterly

Administrativ
e data

Routine monitoring

SEAS
|
|Refugees with access to basic services
infrastructure financed by the project
(female)
|Number of female refugees
estimated to be direct
beneficiaries of sub-projects
under Component 3|Quarterly
|Administrativ
e data
|Routine monitoring
|SEAS
|


Input:
- **Registration and eligibility check** : Second, all pre-listed households will be registered as applicants for the
PNSF program. The program will collect demographic and socio-economic data (‘ _enquête sociale_ ’) for
registered households using off-line tablets. Registered households whose score is above a PMT threshold
to be defined in the POM will be considered ineligible. Duplicate households (as determined by biometric
deduplication) will be also removed from the list of eligible households.

- **Enrollment** : Third, the community will be informed of the eligibility status of registered households. The
community identification committee will be given the option to override this decision if they present
evidence that the data underlying the PMT score is incorrect. After reaching agreement with the
community, eligible households will be enrolled.

Under component 1.2, community sessions will center around themes related to human capital development,
particularly those linked to the early years/early childhood development agenda. The content of the community

Page 35 of 44


Input:
**The World Bank**
Integrated Cash Transfer and Human Capital Project (P166220)

independent technical audit, reporting and external auditing are expected to address the risk of fraud and
corruption that are likely to have a material impact on the project outcomes.

**Implementation Support Plan** : The financial management of the project will be monitored by the World Bank in
conjunction with its overall implementation support of the project and conducted at least three times a year.

**Supporting Documentation and Record Keeping** : All supporting documentation was obtained to support the
conclusions recorded in the Financial Management Assessment.

Page 44 of 44


Input:
Risk factors contributing to vulnerability of IDP sites to armed violence **CORRELATION BETWEEN IMPACT FROM REMNANT ORDNANCE AND OTHER TYPES OF ARMED VIOLENCE** The number of incidents of armed violence reported to have impacted IDP sites doubled from four in 2018 to eight in 2019. The number of civilian casualties also doubled, from 41 to 85. This trend is continuing in 2020; during the first six months of the year, two incidents of armed violence have already directly impacted IDP sites; although no casualties have yet been reported, these incidents result in significant displacement (see below).

Of the 14 incidents of armed violence impacting IDP sites from 1 January 2018 to 30 June 2020, 10 were caused by shelling, cumulatively resulting in 68 civilian casualties, of whom 11 were killed. However, despite accounting for just two of the incidents, airstrikes have had a deadlier impact, causing 23 civilian fatalities on the sites they struck, more than double the fatalities from shelling. The two incidents in total caused 53 civilian casualties, almost as many as from the 10 shelling incidents.

A number of risk factors are likely to heighten the risk of exposure of IDP sites to armed violence, including proximity to active frontlines and sites of strategic or symbolic significance, such as:  Military sites and security infrastructure  Contested routes and junction points  Main supply routes  Critical economic or cultural infrastructure  Natural or human-made territorial demarcations Due to the dynamic nature of the conflict, escalations can be swift and unpredictable, and any such areas may witness direct or remote targeting, or may become subsumed by hostilities on the ground.

**Case Study: Al-Khaniq Camp**
Al-Khaniq camp in Marib is a key example of the risk posed by proximity to active and dynamic frontlines. The site has been impacted by armed violence twice since the start of 2018. As hostilities escalated and the frontlines shifted earlier this year, artillery shelling hit the site on 26 January. Although no casualties were reported, around 1,550 families were forced to relocate to Medghal district or Marib city.

**P r o t e c t i o n I m p l i c a t i o n s**
Incidents of armed violence impacting IDP sites present a serious risk of death and injury to inhabitants. Furthermore, they likely compound civilians' experiences of psychosocial trauma, due to the repeated exposure to conflict and subsequent destabilisation. Such incidents may also result in premature returns, or secondary, or even tertiary, displacement, which in turn places additional strain on recipient sites. When one site is impacted, other sites in the vicinity may see sudden influxes, placing pressure on resources that are already likely stretched. Having already faced severe disruption to their lives and livelihoods, any additional displacement further undermines IDPs' resilience and exposes them to further protection risks.

Civilian casualties and the vulnerability of women and children on IDP sites Civilian casualties resulting from incidents of armed violence on IDP sites Since the start of 2018, incidents of armed violence impacting IDP sites have resulted in 126 civilian casualties, of whom over a quarter (27%) were fatalities. Women and children comprised more than half of the total civilian casualty toll on IDP sites (72 persons, 57%).

Women and children on IDP sites have also suffered a comparatively higher mortality rate: since the start of 2018, over three quarters of the 34 civilian fatalities caused by incidents impacting IDP sites have been women and children. 1 in 3 (14 of 44) child casualties caused by incidents of armed violence on IDP sites were fatalities, and a 43% (12 of 28) mortality rate was seen for women. By comparison, just 8 (15%) of the 54 gender-unspecified casualties were fatalities.

**Gender-**
**unspecified**

**Women and**

**children**

**46** **8**

**46** **26**

**0** **10** **20** **30** **40** **50** **60** **70**

**Injuries** **Fatalities**

The Civilian Impact Monitoring Project is a service under the Protection Cluster for the collection, analysis and dissemination of open source data on the civilian impact from armed violence in Yemen, to inform and complement protection programming.

For more information, please visit www.civilianimpactmonitoring.org.

**3**


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Exchange Rate Effective = June 30, 2018

Currency Unit = SDR

0.710949 SDR = US$1

FISCAL YEAR
January 1 - December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AFD French Development Agency _(Agence Française de Developpement)_
CAR Central African Republic
CFAF Central African Franc ( _Franc de la Communauté Financière d’Afrique)_
CFS _Cellule Filets Sociaux_
CGD Center for Global Development
CNARR National Agency for Refugees ( _Commission Nationale d’Accueil et de_

CGD Center for Global Development
CNARR National Agency for Refugees ( _Commission Nationale d’Accueil et de_

_Réinsertion des Réfugiés et de Rapatriés)_
CPF Country Partnership Framework
CRA Regional Action Committees ( _Comités Régionaux d’Action)_
CRRF Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework

CRA Regional Action Committees ( _Comités Régionaux d’Action)_
CRRF Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework

DA Designated Account
DEELPCN Direction of Environmental Studies and Control of Pollution, and Nuisances
DFID Department for International Development
DFIL Disbursement and Financial Information Letter
DIZA Inclusive Development Program in Hosting Areas _(Développement Inclusif_

DFIL Disbursement and Financial Information Letter
DIZA Inclusive Development Program in Hosting Areas _(Développement Inclusif_


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

ICT
IDA

ICT Information and Communication Technology
IDA International Development Association

IDP Internally Displaced Person
IFR Interim Financial Report
IOM International Organization for Migration
IPM Integrated Pest Management

IOM International Organization for Migration
IPM Integrated Pest Management

IRC International Rescue Committee
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

IRC International Rescue Committee
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation

MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund
MEPD Ministry of Economy and Development Planning _(Ministère de l’Economie et_
_de la Planification du Développement)_
MIS Management Information System
NDP National Development Plan
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NSPS National Social Protection Strategy
PARCA Refugees and Host Communities Support Project _(Projet d’Appui aux Réfugiés_

_et aux Communautés d’Accueil)_

PBF Performance-Based Financing
PIM Project Implementation Manual

PARCA Refugees and Host Communities Support Project _(Projet d’Appui aux Réfugiés_

_et aux Communautés d’Accueil)_

PBF Performance-Based Financing
PIM Project Implementation Manual

PMT Proxy Means Testing
PFS Safety Nets Project _(Projet Filets Sociaux)_

PMT Proxy Means Testing
PFS Safety Nets Project _(Projet Filets Sociaux)_


Input:
**of refugees fleeing volatile situations in neighboring countries.** Over the past 25 years, Chad
has welcomed new refugees at its eastern, western, and southern borders. By end-2017, Chad was
hosting more than 403,000 refugees and in absolute terms ranked 12 [th] among host countries in the
world and 6 [th] in Africa. [7] Refugees represent more than three percent of the population, making
Chad the 5 [th] largest receiving country in the world in relative terms. Poor Chadian households also
face additional pressures from internally displaced persons (IDPs) and returnees (altogether around
300,000). Around 55 percent of refugees are female and more than half are children, who live in
impoverished conditions together with members of host communities. [8] Most refugees are situated
along the country's borders, in remote areas characterized by high poverty and structural
underinvestment.

---
[8] The term “host communities” is used here to indicate communities in proximity to the camps or refugee sites. They are not


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

**B. Sectoral and Institutional Context**

**Sectoral Context**

6. **Longstanding migration patterns across the Sahel region have been intensified by**

**forced displacement.** The Sahel has traditionally been a region with significant migration and
displacement, as many ethnic groups are scattered around the countries and along their artificially
drawn borders. These “lines in the sand” [9] are seldom an impediment to pastoralists herding their
cattle or other groups who migrate seasonally for economic reasons. Refugee inflows into Chad
are therefore juxtaposed with a complex pattern of regional migration for economic reasons; in
response to extreme weather events; or, over the past 20 years, to escape protracted conflicts in
Sudan (Darfur), South Sudan, and the Central African Republic (CAR). More recently, there has
also been a significant displacement of people in the South of Chad and in the Lake Chad area due
to the persistent instability in CAR and the Boko Haram insurgency.

7. **There are marked differences in the situation of refugees and host communities in the**


Input:
**achieving project objectives** . This assessment will be informed by continuing analytical work
and studies on targeting and accompanying measures, which will make it possible to flexibly adjust
project activities in response to changes in the refugee situation. Through its support to CNARR
in partnership with UNHCR, the project will continually monitor the adequacy of the refugee
protection framework, including progress made on the Law on Asylum, and its repercussions for
project activities. The mid-term review will be a critical moment in the life of the project to assess
these issues, undergo a quality and technical assessment of activities under components 1 and 2,
and assess the efficiency of the institutional and implementation arrangements and potential
alternative implementation options.

**C. Sustainability**

61. **The project’s sustainability rests on its ability to adequately link activities targeting**

**refugees and host communities to broader sector strategies; in other words, to include**


Input:
- **Transparency and communications.** A strong communication campaign will help ensure
that stakeholders understand that investments are made on the basis of objective,
transparent, gender-balanced, and social/environmentally sensitive criteria.

65. **It is expected that the infrastructure improvement interventions (Component 1), cash**

**transfer program, and productive measures (Component 2)** **will provide a broad range of**

**socio-economic benefits to the refugee population and host communities.** Overall, the project
will contribute to reducing some of the driving forces behind the deteriorating wellbeing of
refugees and host communities in Chad.

66. **The estimated economic rates of return of the investments in education and health**

**(sub-components 1.1 and 1.2)** **are 25 and 18 percent, respectively, which are comparable to**

**the economic rate of return of other World Bank projects in the region** . For example, the Chad
Mother and Child Health Services Strengthening Project (P148052) and the Cameroon Education
Reform Support Project (P160926) have estimated rates of return of 29 and 18 percent,
respectively.

67. **The economic and financial analysis of sub-component 2.1** **(cash transfers) is similar**


Input:
**implementing the PFS** . Fiduciary compliance for that project is deemed satisfactory, and the
unaudited interim financial reports (IFRs) for the project have been submitted on time and found
acceptable. In addition, CFS has adequate and qualified staff to handle the financial management
(FM) tasks of the proposed project, although some additional support will be required. Its current
financial management team consists of a specialist on administrative and financial transactions
and a senior accountant at the central level, as well as two assistant accountants at the regional
level. CFS is also in the process of hiring an internal auditor.

70. **For the proposed project, CFS will hire an additional accountant to be based in**

**N’djamena.** She or he will perform day-to-day accounting activities and record transactions in the
central MIS and database. In the new regional offices, assistant accountants will be hired to
perform day-to-day financial transactions.


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

project areas. The assessment will provide a more informed understanding of the project’s
potential to address gender issues. [36]

84. **Citizens’ engagement** _**.**_ Citizens and civil society organizations (CSOs) are key partners in
the planning and implementation of activities and will be involved in monitoring and assessing
implementation. This will help improving the economic, social and environmental performance of
the project, its sustainability, community ownership, and transparency and accountability during
implementation. The Project Implementation Manual will include a specific section on citizens’
engagement.

85. **Strengthening environmental and social safeguards capacity.** The Bank’s safeguards
team will undertake an assessment of the capacity of the CFS to deal with the safeguards agenda,
and if inadequacies and capacity gaps are found it will propose specific actions to address them.

**Grievance Redress Mechanisms**

---
[36] Watson et al., Refugee and Host Communities in Chad: Dynamics of Economic and Social Inclusion, May 2018. The World


Input:
86. Communities and individuals who believe that they are adversely affected by a World
Bank (WB) supported project may submit complaints to existing project-level grievance redress
mechanisms or the WB’s Grievance Redress Service (GRS). The GRS ensures that complaints
received are promptly reviewed in order to address project-related concerns. Project affected
communities and individuals may submit their complaint to the WB’s independent Inspection
Panel which determines whether harm occurred, or could occur, as a result of WB noncompliance with its policies and procedures. Complaints may be submitted at any time after
concerns have been brought directly to the World Bank's attention, and Bank Management has
been given an opportunity to respond. For information on how to submit complaints to the World
Bank’s corporate Grievance Redress Service (GRS), please visit
[http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-](http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service)
[service. For information on how to submit complaints to the World Bank Inspection Panel, please](http://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/products-and-services/grievance-redress-service)
[visit www.inspectionpanel.org.](http://www.inspectionpanel.org/)

**V.** **KEY RISKS**

87. **The overall risk of the project is** _**High**_ **.** The specific project risks as defined in the
Systematic Operations Rating Tool (SORT) are outlined in the following section.

88. **The fragile social and economic situation in Chad is the backdrop to an ongoing major**


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

|Indicator Name|DLI|Baseline
2019|End Target
2024|
|---|---|---|---|
|(Percentage)||||
|**Strengthening country systems to support refugees and host communities**|**Strengthening country systems to support refugees and host communities**|**Strengthening country systems to support refugees and host communities**|**Strengthening country systems to support refugees and host communities**|
|Beneficiaries in targeted areas included in the Unified Social
Registry (Percentage)||0.00|80.00|
|Beneficiaries in targeted areas included in the Unified Social
Registry--Female (Percentage)||0.00|52.00|
|Beneficiaries in targeted areas included in the Unified Social
Registry--Refugees (Percentage)||0.00|30.00|
|Eligible refugees with identity documents issued by CNARR
(Percentage)||10.00|70.00|
|Eligible refugees with identity documents issued by CNARR--
Female (Percentage)
||30.00|52.00|

|RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO|Col2|Col3|Col4|
|---|---|---|---|
|

**Indicator Name**
|
**DLI**
|
**Baseline**
**2019 **|
**End Target**
**2024 **|
|**Improving access to basic services**|**Improving access to basic services**|**Improving access to basic services**|**Improving access to basic services**|
|Geo-referenced health and education sector facility mapping in
targeted areas completed (Yes/No)||No|Yes|
|Communities consulted for basic services needs assessment and
targeting validation (Percentage)||0.00|90.00|
|Classrooms rehabilitated or newly built (Number)||42.00|420.00|
|Health centers rehabilitated or newly built (Number)||9.00|70.00|

Page 40


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

|Indicator Name|DLI|Baseline
2019|End Target
2024|
|---|---|---|---|
|(Percentage)||||
|CFS regional offices fully staffed and functional by year 2
(Number)
||0.00|3.00|

|Monitoring & Evaluation Plan: PDO Indicators|Col2|Col3|Col4|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Indicator Name **|**Definition/Description **|**Frequency **|**Datasource **|**Methodology for Data**
**Collection **|**Responsibility for Data**
**Collection **|
|Beneficiaries with improved access to
community infrastructure (health and
education)||Twice a year
|Baseline was
calculated on
the basis of
data
provided by
UNHCR and
WFP on the
number of
classrooms
and health
centers
newly built
or
rehabilitated
in target
areas. The
CFS is
launching a|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on
attendance to schools
and health centers
rehabilitated/built by
the
project. Information
will be collected from
schools and health
centers (enrollment
lists and patient logs) to
calculate utilization;
utilization of other
community
infrastructure will be
determined on the
basis of representative|CFS
|

Page 42


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

|Health centers rehabilitated or newly built|Col2|Twice a
year|Baseline data
collected
from UNHCR
and WFP on
number of
health
centers built
or
rehabilitated
in target
areas. The
CFS is
launching a
baseline
study which
will help to
confirm
baseline
numbers, to
be reviewed
at MTR.
CFS
Management
information
system -
CNARR -
Ministry of
Health|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on number of
health centers
rehabilitated or newly
built. Reports are then
consolidated by CFS
centrally and shared
with the Project
Steering Committee
and with the World
Bank. There will be two
reports per year in June
and December. Figures
are reported for the
period in question (6
months) and also
cumulatively.|CFS|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Students attending new or rehabilitated
schools||Quarterly
report
|Baseline data
collected
from UNHCR|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on|CFS
|

Page 50


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

|for Performance Based Financing|Col2|Col3|Health|by region on level of
utilization of the
standard forms
Performance Based
Financing introduced by
the P148052 Mother
and Child Health
Services Strengthening
Project. Information is
based on
representative surveys.|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Cash transfer beneficiaries (households)||Quarterly
|Baseline data
collected
from UNHCR
and WFP on
number
of refugees
receiving
cash
transfers  in
target areas.
The CFS is
launching a
baseline
study which
will help to
confirm
baseline
numbers, to
be reviewed
at MTR.|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on number of
households receiving
the transfer.  This
number is than
multiplied by 5 since
the average size of
families is of five
member. The reports
are then consolidated
by the CFS. Data are
non-cumulative by
cohort.
|CFS
|

Page 52


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

|Col1|Col2|Col3|CFS -
Management
Information
System|Col5|Col6|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|Cash transfer beneficiaries--Female||Quarterly
|CFS -
Management
information
system
|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on
percentage of women
number receiving
regular (4 per year)
cash transfers. Data are
non-cumulative. Target
is 52 percent of the
total.
|CFS
|
|Cash transfer beneficiaries--Refugees||Quarterly
|CFS -
Management
Information
System
|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on
percentage of women
number receiving
regular (4 per year)
cash transfers. Data by
cohort are non-
cumulative. Target is
between 30 and
50 percent of total
beneficiaries.
|CFS with support from
CNARR
|
|Cash transfers delivered within 5 days of
scheduled date||Quarterly
|CFS -
Management
Information|CFS local offices
produce simple reports
by region on how many|CFS
|

Page 53


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

human resources agency. CFS has developed, trained on, and is using a complete set of operational
manuals acceptable to the World Bank, including an Administrative and Financial Manual, a
Manual on Targeting, a Manual on Cash Transfers, a Manual on Cash for Work and an
Environmental and Social Mitigation Framework. Originally produced for the PFS, these manuals
are being newly revised for this project. CFS has a main office in Ndjamena and two regional
offices, in Logone Occidentale and Bar-el-Ghazel. It has surveyed close to 30,000 potential
beneficiaries, registered and provided cash transfers to approximately 6,200 households, and is
supporting the creation of the Unified Social Registry.

5. The CFS will open at least three additional fully staffed regional offices. Aside from a
regional coordinator, each regional office will include a financial management specialist, M&E
specialist, safeguards specialist, two technical specialists to manage components 1 and 2, and a
communications/community engagement specialist, plus support staff as needed.


Input:
10. The FM assessment has concluded that CFS’s financial management system is adequate
and in compliance with the Bank’s minimum requirements under OP/BP10.00. Overall, the current

Page 60


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

|Col1|• Rehabilitation of
works
• Safeguards support
• Implementation of
safeguards
instruments for
specific investments|• Procurement
and FM
• Education
• Health
• WASH
• Agriculture
• Rural
development
planning|Col4|Col5|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|**Other**|||||

|Table 7. Skills Mix Required|Col2|Col3|Col4|
|---|---|---|---|
|**Skills Needed **|**Number of Staff Weeks **|**Number of Trips **|**Comments**|
|**Task team Leader**|10 per year|2-3 per year|Staff based in HQ|
|**Local focal point**|30 per year|0|Staff based in the region|
|**Agricultural specialist**|2 per year|0|Staff based in country|
|**Education specialist**|2 per year|0|Staff based in-country|
|**Health Specialist**|2 per year|0|Staff based in-country|
|**Social protection**|8 per year|2 per year|Staff based in HQ|
|**Targeting specialist**|8 per year|2 per year|Staff based in HQ|
|**Financial management**|4 per year|0|Staff are based in-country|
|**Procurement**|4 per year|0|Staff based in-country|
|**Environmental**
**safeguards**|4 per year|2 per year|Staff is based in the region|
|**Social safeguards**|4 per year|2 per year|Staff is based in the region|

|Table 8. Partners|Col2|Col3|
|---|---|---|
|**Name **|**Institution/Country **|**Role**|
|**Permanent Secretary**|CNARR|Recipient|
|**Head**|UNHCR|Coordination/technical
and logistic
support/knowledge|
|**Director of planning and budget**|Ministry of Education|Technical guidance|
|**Director of planning and budget**|Ministry of Health|Technical guidance|
|**Director of Evaluation**|Ministry of Environment|Technical guidance|

Page 76


Input:
**The World Bank**
Chad - Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (P164748)

**ANNEX 2: GEO-SPATIAL ANALYSIS**

1. A major obstacle to effective targeting of development projects in many developing
countries is the lack of existing datasets. One option to overcome this obstacle is remote sensing.
For this project, preliminary work has been done to determine the host population around selected
camps using remote sensing imaging analysis. To generate population estimates, the analysis uses
world population census data and statistical modeling based on the relationship between
populations and physical socioeconomic characteristics such as land uses, dwelling units and
image pixel characteristics.

2. The figure shows the population layer within 25 km of selected camps, and the table shows
population estimates at 50 km, 25 km, 15 km, 10 km and 5 km from the camps. Since village
boundary information for Chad is not available in world population data, satellite imagery and
estimates of average village size from the most recent census will be used to approximate the
number of host villages around each camp.

**Population Layer within 25 km of Selected Camps in the East, South, and Lake Chad**

**Regions**

Source: World Bank Geospatial Operations Support Team (GOST).

Page 77


Input:
The World Bank Economic Review 573

find that within-state increases in the number of police officers reduce crime in the United States. Levitt
(1997) uses electoral cycles as an instrument for police hiring and finds significant reductions in crime
when more policemen are hired. [1] Corman and Mocan (2000) use high frequency changes in the number
of police officers and find that police reduce burglaries but have no effect on other crime categories. Di
Tella and Schargrodsky (2004) exploit the exogenous reallocation of police forces across Buenos Aires
as a result of a terrorist attack on a Jewish Center. They find a large and localized deterrent effect of
more police presence on car thefts. A similar strategy is used by Draca, Machin, and Witt (2011), who
also find evidence of deterrence effects by exploiting police reallocation in London after the terrorist
attacks of 2005. Evans and Owens (2007) use state grants to fund Community Oriented Policing
Services (COPS) as an instrument for the number of police officers. They find that higher police presence
reduces auto thefts, burglaries, robberies, and aggravated assaults. Buonanno and Mastrobuoni (2012)
exploit delays created by a centralized police hiring system in Italy to estimate the effect of police officers
on local crime, finding deterrence effects in some crime categories. Finally, Garcia, Mej�ıa, and Ortega
(2013) study the randomized introduction of a police-training program among small localities in the
four largest cities in Colombia. They find that the intervention significantly reduces crime, not by
increasing the police force but by improving its quality and engagement with the community.
Another body of literature focuses on the effects of enforcement or characteristics related to the likelihood of detection on soft crime or tax evasion. [2] For example, Bar-Ilan and Sacerdote (2001) find that
the introduction of traffic cameras and changes in fines reduced driving infractions. Dubin, Graetz, and
Wilde (1987) and Beron, Tauchen, and Witte (1992) present evidence that higher audit rates modestly
increase reported income for some groups of taxpayers. In this same area, Klepper and Nagin (1989)
find that noncompliance rates are related to the traceability, deniability, and ambiguity of the items
being declared, which are in turn related to the probability that evasion will be detected and punished;
and Kagan (1989) presents evidence that compliance is greater among people whose income is directly
reported to the IRS and who therefore have fewer opportunities to cheat.
We contribute to this literature by cleanly identifying the effect of enforcement on illegal behavior in
the context of the war on drugs and illicit crop cultivation in Colombia. The strength of our empirical
exercise relies not only on our identification strategy but also on the precision of our data on illicit crop
cultivation and enforcement activities. In particular, we observe satellite data on coca cultivation in
small 1-square-km cells and information on the exact location of aerial spraying campaigns, closely
monitored by the army and police using GPS devices that are built in the aircraft used in the aerial spraying program in Colombia. Consistent with the previous findings on the literature, our results suggest
that farmers respond to a greater likelihood of enforcement in an area by reducing illicit coca cultivation
there, but we show that the effects are too small to make the spraying program a cost-effective policy to
reduce cocaine supply.

Literature on the Efficacy of Anti-drug Interventions
Secondly, our paper is also related to the applied economics literature on the cost-effectiveness of antidrug policies. The main challenge in this area is that anti-drug interventions typically take place on a
large scale; hence, it is difficult to obtain appropriate counterfactuals. One approach, followed by Mej�ıa
and Restrepo (2012, 2013), is to construct and calibrate economic models of illegal drug markets to
understand and quantify the main forces and determinants of the cost-effectiveness of different supplyreduction strategies. They find that spraying illicit crops is costly and ineffective relative to policies
aimed at seizing drug shipments. However, both strategies are costly relative to demand reduction policies in consumer countries.

1 See also the criticism by McCrary (2002) and the reply by Levitt (2002).
2 For a thorough review of the empirical literature, see Andreoni, Erard, and Feinstein (1998).


Input:
574 Mej�ıa, Restrepo, and Rozo

Other papers in the literature have focused on estimating the impact of spraying campaigns on coca cultivation by using geographic and time variation. For example, Moreno-Sanchez et al. (2003) and Dion and
Russler (2008) use departmental data from Colombia and find a positive correlation between the levels of
spraying and the presence of coca crops. However, these results are likely to be driven by simultaneity bias
in their estimates. Recent studies have attempted to address these endogeneity concerns. For example,
Moya (2005) deals with selection on observables using matching techniques and finds that spraying does
not have a significant effect on coca crops in Colombian municipalities. Bogliacino and Naranjo (2012),
also exploit within municipality variation and find that eradication does not reduce coca production. They
estimate a system of equations in which aerial spraying and cultivation are determined simultaneously,
identified by the restrictive assumption that crime rates and the number of internal refugees are uncorrelated with coca cultivation, but do create political pressure for spraying campaigns. Reyes (2014) instruments spraying with the distance to the closest military base and finds evidence that aerial spraying
increases illicit crops. However, his results require the location of military bases to be exogenous. A different approach is implemented by Ibanez and Carlsson (2010)~, who elicit farmers’ preferences over risk and
the profitability of other crops by using hypothetical questions. Consistent with our findings and the economic model of crime, farmers in Putumayo claim they would reduce coca plantations if they faced a
higher risk of eradication. However, the implied reductions are small, as we confirm using a different
methodology. Finally, Rozo (2014) instruments spraying with the interaction of the distance between each
1-square-km cell (or coca producer) and the nearest border of a protected area and U.S. international antidrug expenditures. She exploits the fact that, by governmental mandate, protected areas cannot be sprayed
with herbicides due to environmental and social concerns and finds that aerial spraying has a negative and
significant effect on the hectares of coca cropped and their yield. In addition, she documents negative unintended consequences on the socio-economic conditions of coca-producing areas.
This paper contributes to the existing evidence by estimating the effects of aerial spraying programs
using a sharp natural experiment, which in our view provides a credible source of exogenous variation.
In addition, we use cost figures to back up a lower bound for the cost-effectiveness of these programs.
We find that despite reducing cultivation, aerial spraying is too costly to be a cost-effective anti-narcotic
strategy. In particular, demand reduction policies in the United States or interdiction campaigns provide
the same benefits in terms of supply reduction at much lower costs.

II. Natural Experiment and Data

Following the large increase in coca cultivation that took place in Colombia after 1994 and the increasing involvement of illegal armed groups in these activities, the governments of Colombia and the United
States launched Plan Colombia in September of 1999, a large anti-narcotics program aimed at reducing
the Colombian cocaine supply. Under this program, the United States government disbursed close to
$540 million dollars per year between 2000 and 2008 in subsidies to the Colombian armed forces to
fight against the production and trafficking of drugs. Additionally, the Colombian government spent
close to $810 million dollars per year during the same period in the fight against illegal drug production
and trafficking (GAO 2008). Total expenditures on the military component of Plan Colombia represented close to $1.35 billion dollars per year, corresponding to about 1.2% of the country’s annual
GDP, making it the largest anti-drug intervention in a producing country.
The strategies implemented under Plan Colombia included aerial spraying campaigns, manual eradication, control of chemical precursors used in the processing of coca leaf into cocaine, detection and
destruction of cocaine processing laboratories, and seizure of drug shipments en route to foreign countries. Aerial spraying has been by far the main anti-drug strategy in terms of financial resources invested.
On average, 128,000 hectares per year were sprayed with herbicides, of which almost half are located in
Putumayo and Narino, the two Colombian departments (states) bordering Ecuador, where our empirical~


Input:
578 Mej�ıa, Restrepo, and Rozo

The data on cultivation reveals a sharp decline from 2000 to 2004, during the first years of Plan
Colombia, from about 3 hectares per square kilometer to about 0.6. However, in 2006, and later in 2009
and 2010, cultivation increased in the exclusion region relative to the sprayed area, though only mildly.

III. Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Approach

In this section we employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to evaluate the impact of aerial spraying
on coca cultivation. We exploit the exogenous rule applied by the Colombian government since 2006 to
stop aerial spraying 10 kms around the international frontier, which became particularly binding from
2008 onward.
In our setting, the forcing variable is the distance from the centroid of each cell i to the international
frontier with Ecuador, capturing its geographic location. We normalize the forcing variable to take the
value of zero at the 10 km cutoff, and denote it by D [^] i, where D [^] i ¼ Di � 10 km. [4] Our discussion above
implies that in the remaining sample of cells, there should be a discontinuity in aerial spraying around D [^] i
¼ 0 in 2006 and from 2008 onwards, assuming that the Colombian government fulfilled its commitment
strictly during these years.
Let Sit be a dummy equal to 1 if grid i was sprayed during year t. We start by exploring whether the
diplomatic friction led to a discontinuity in aerial spraying near the 10 km band. To do so, we estimate
the model:

Sit ¼ p0t þ p1t1fD [^] i                           - 0g þ ftðD [^] i; XiÞ þ �it; (1)

for specific years, t, or pooling different years together. Here, ft is a polynomial in the forcing variable and
other geographic characteristics of the cell (including longitude and latitude), which captures the continuous variation of the likelihood of enforcement over different cells. Essentially, it represents the conditional
expectation of the policy based solely on the geographic characteristics of a cell. The coefficient on p1t
measures any policy discontinuity around the cutoff. Our discussion above implies that we expect p1t - 0
for t � 2006—in particular since 2008, when spraying was reduced virtually to zero in the exclusion area.
In addition we control for municipality fixed effects, year effects (when necessary), and report standard
errors robust against heteroskedasticity and serial correlation within cells throughout.
The main challenge in estimating equation 1 is to specify a flexible model for the conditional expectation function ftðD [^] i; XiÞ. Our first approach is to use a cubic polynomial in Di, together with quadratic
terms for latitude and longitude, aimed at capturing the variation of Sit over space. We present estimates
using this approach in columns 1 and 2 of table 1. In column 1 we estimate equation 1 on the sample of
cells with centroids within 3 km of the discontinuity, and in column 2 we further restrict the sample to
cells within 2.5 km. By restricting the sample of cells used, we rely less on the particular parametrization
of the conditional expectation function. Alternatively, in columns 3 and 4 we approximate the conditional expectation using a local quadratic regression with different choices of bandwidth and a triangular
Kernel. In column 3 we use Imbens and Kalyanaraman (2012) optimal bandwidth (labeled IK throughout), which in our setting equals b ¼ 4:7 km. [5]

4 In this exercise, we exclude from our sample all cells that had their centroid in the first 500 m around the cutoff value
since they have a significant portion of their territory in both the exclusion and the sprayed area. Thus, we only compare
cells near the 10 km cutoff lying entirely on one side or the other. We obtain similar results using the cells within 500 m
of the cutoff to estimate the conditional expectation of cultivation and the likelihood of spraying as a function of the
distance to the cutoff. In these models, we add separate dummies for cells within 0 to 500 m away from the cutoff in the
exclusion area and cells within 0 to 500 m away from the cutoff in the sprayed area.
5 Though the optimal bandwidth varies estimate by estimate, all are very close to the 4.7 km one used here. Thus, we use
this bandwidth and label it as the optimal bandwidth throughout.


Input:
discourage investment in production capacity, which eventually causes prices to rise as existing oil fields that can be tapped at relatively low marginal cost are depleted.

_Figure_ _**Error! No text of specified style in document.**_ _.2 Evolution of Research and Development Expenditure in Select_ _Integrated Oil and Service Companies_

**Figure 3.2 Evolution of Research and Development Expenditure in Select Integrated Oil and**
**Service Companies**
_(Billions of US Dollars; unless otherwise noted)_ 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Research and Development Expenditure Crude oil price, average (U.S. dollars a barrel, right scale) 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: World Bank; Bloomberg LP.; and WB staff calculation.

But the adage gained its currency before the advent of shale oil production, which can be turned on and off much faster than conventional production. The new shale oil production––made possible by new technologies such as hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling—will lead to shorter and more limited oil-price cycles. In the narrow view, however, technological innovation--both among producers and users, are results from exogenous (i.e. independent and external) forces. The data seem to suggest otherwise—that technological change is, in economic parlance, endogenous to market developments. As shown in Figures 3.2 and 3.3, periods of high oil prices tend to stimulate expenditure in research and development and subsequently innovation.

_Figure_ _**Error! No text of specified style in document.**_ _.3 Clean vs Dirty Patents_

**Figure 3.3 Clean vs Dirty Patents**

20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Dirty Patents Clean Patents Ratio: Clean vs Dirty 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2.5 2

1.5

1 0.5 0 Source: Aghion, Dechezlepretre, Hemous, Martin and Van Reenen (2012), calculations based on the PATSTAT database.

4


Input:
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Exchange Rate Effective August 1, 2016

Currency Unit = ILS (Israeli New Sheqalim)

USD1 = ILS 3.806

FISCAL YEAR
January 1            - December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AMAL      Affordable Mortgage and Loan Corporation
DA         Designated Account

DP Development Partner
EoI         Expression of Interest
ESMF       Environmental and Social Management Framework
EU European Union
FforJ        Finance for Jobs
FM         Financial Management
FMIS        Financial Management Information System
GG Good Governance
GoI Government of Israel
GRS Grievance Redress Service
GUF        Global Urban Footprint
IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
ICA         Israeli Civil Administration
ICC International Criminal Court
ICUD       Integrated Cities and Urban Development
IDA International Development Association
IRA Integrated Risk Assessment
JCU         Joint Cooperation Unit
JSC Joint Services Council
LAP-2       Second Land Administration Project
LC          Local Coordinator
LED        Local Economic Development
LG          Local Government
LGU Local Government Unit
LGSIP Local Governance and Services improvement Program
M&E        Monitoring and Evaluation
MDLF Municipal Development and Lending Fund
MDP Municipal Development Program

ii


Input:
MoLG Ministry of Local Government
MoPWH     Ministry of Public Works and Housing
MoU        Memorandum of Understanding
NDP National Development Plan
PA Palestinian Authority
PAD Project Appraisal Document
PDO Project Development Objective
PforR      Program for Results
PNGO      Palestinian NGO Project
POM        Project Operational Manual
PP          Procurement Plan
PPP         Public-Private Partnership
PGMIS      Program Management Information System
RAB        Ramallah-Al Bireh-Bitounia
RBMM      Results-Based Monitoring Manual
RFP        Request for Proposals
RPF        Resettlement Policy Framework
SDIP      Strategic Development and Investment Planning
SSWMP     Southern West Bank Solid Waste Management Project
SWMP      Solid Waste Management Project
TA Technical Assistance
ToR        Terms of Reference
TFGWB     Trust Fund for Gaza and West Bank
TS          Technical Supervisor
UR         Urbanization Review
VC Village Council
VLD        Voluntary land donation
VNDP       Village and Neighborhood Development Project
WB&G West Bank and Gaza
WB         World Bank
WBG World Bank Group

Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem
Country Director: Marina Wes
Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Practice Manager: Ayat Soliman
Task Team Leader: Noriko Oe

iii

PGMIS Program Management Information System


Input:
**WEST BANK AND GAZA**

**Integrated Cities and Urban Development Project**

**TABLE OF CONTENTS**

**Page**

I. **STRATEGIC CONTEXT .................................................................................................1**

A. Country Context ............................................................................................................ 1

B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ................................................................................. 1

C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Project Contributes .......................................... 5

II. **PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ................................................................5**

A. PDO............................................................................................................................... 5

B. Project Beneficiaries ..................................................................................................... 6

C. PDO Level Results Indicators ....................................................................................... 6

III. **PROJECT DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................................7**

A. Project Components ...................................................................................................... 7

B. Project Financing .......................................................................................................... 8

C. Lessons Learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................. 8

IV. **IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................................................9**

A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements .......................................................... 9

B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................ 11

C. Sustainability............................................................................................................... 11

V. **KEY RISKS ......................................................................................................................12**

A. Overall Risk Rating and Explanation of Key Risks.................................................... 12

VI. **APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..............................................................................................15**

A. Economic and Financial Analysis ............................................................................... 15

B. Technical ..................................................................................................................... 16

C. Financial Management ................................................................................................ 16

D. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 17

E. Social (including Safeguards) ..................................................................................... 17

F. Environment (including Safeguards) .......................................................................... 18

G. World Bank Grievance Redress .................................................................................. 19

iv