Predicting Turn-Taking Outcomes in Multi-Party Conversation: Interpretable Modelling of Speech and Gaze Dynamics with Interpersonal Closeness

Smooth speaker transitions are fundamental to effective conversation and rely on an interlocutor's ability to predict when to enter the conversation. This ability depends on accurately interpreting and expressing the verbal and non-verbal cues that signal when a speaker wishes to take or relinquish the floor. The process becomes even more complex in noisy, natural, multi-party settings, with multiple interlocutors available. This study models how gaze and speech, together with perceived interpersonal closeness, signal conversational floor changes in free four-person dialogue. Using the GaMMA corpus, we trained logistic regression models using interpretable, behaviourally motivated features extracted before each turn-taking event to classify floor-transfer outcomes as gaps or overlaps. Predictors included gaze features such as transition motifs and behavioural contrasts, entropy, gaze-based addressee identity, and mutual gaze, alongside speech features derived from speaker loudness, as well as perceived interpersonal closeness (IOS) between speakers. Results show that gaze features capture predictive structure, and that combining them with loudness improves performance (ROC AUC = 0.76 +- 0.04). Loudness reflected speaker control, while gaze dispersion and addressing indexed listener readiness and competitive entry. Performance remained robust across noise conditions, indicating that gaze provides a complementary, noise-resilient cue to turn-taking dynamics.