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Nov 4

CADENCE: Closing the Reasoning Gap via Coverage-Adaptive On-Policy Distillation

On-policy knowledge distillation transfers reasoning from large teachers to compact students, but existing approaches suffer three compounding failure modes: (i) cold-start collapse, where a fresh student assigns near-zero mass to teacher-preferred tokens; (ii) state-agnostic divergence scheduling, where time-only forward/reverse-KL interpolation ignores the student's coverage state; and (iii) binary reward sparsity, where pass/fail signals discard information from partially correct traces. We present CADENCE, a unified framework with a targeted fix for each. Its DRIFT mechanism schedules a per-token convex mixture of forward-KL and reverse-KL surrogate objectives on student-sampled trajectories (per-token surrogates, not sequence-level KL gradient estimators). Six components extend it: (A) COVA, a coverage-adaptive β schedule accelerating the forward-to-reverse transition; (B) FTB, a forking-token boost concentrating gradient at high-entropy positions via a globally-normalized entropy reference; (C) CCD, a dense reward adding numerical-proximity partial credit for incorrect-but-close traces; (D) LAP, brevity-preferential correct-rollout reinforcement; (E) EMR, an entropy-matching calibration regularizer; (F) BSD, a bootstrapped self-distillation phase. On GSM8K and MATH-500 (corrected 512-token protocol, 5 seeds, reported std), CADENCE distills a 0.5B student from a 1.5B teacher to 69.8 pm 0.5% GSM8K pass@1 (from 48.7% pretrained; 63.2% of the teacher gap closed) and to 72.1 pm 0.4% with a 3B teacher (76.2% closed), beating the strongest matched-compute label-using baseline (DRIFT+binary reward) by +4.4 pm 0.7 points. All experiments run on a single Apple Mac Studio (M-series, 64GB unified memory), showing principled distillation reaches strong reasoning quality without datacenter-scale hardware.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 17 2

Cadence: Error-Bounded Lossy Compression of Demand Time Series with a Time-Series Foundation Model

We present Cadence, an error-bounded lossy compressor for numeric time series pairing a 330M-parameter time-series foundation model (Google TimesFM-3) with an adaptive arithmetic coder, guaranteeing |x_t-x_t|leτ on every sample. One negative result constrains the design space: for lossless coding a foundation model is worth nothing, because bits saved are logarithmic in predictor accuracy, Δb=log_2(MAE_{old}/MAE_{new}). So the 1.51times advantage TimesFM-3 holds over a 32-tap linear predictor buys 0.60 bits of 20.28, a median gain of +0.03%. Error-bounded coding escapes this at one point: once a forecast lands inside the band the residual index is zero and the sample nearly free. Cadence contributes: (1) an adaptive range coder with context-modelled binarization, beating xz/zstd on real indices by 9.7% (15/15) and reversing a finding from a general-purpose back end; (2) a determinism result -- predictions are not bit-identical across batch sizes, and no PyTorch configuration repairs this, forcing group size and execution device into the container format; and (3) domain localization on corpora postdating any plausible training cutoff. On 49 EIA-930 balancing-authority demand series (2026) Cadence gains 13.3% over the best of six classical predictors, and 28.3% on 50 MTA ridership series (2026): 21.4% median over 297 series-tolerance pairs, winning all 297. Against downsampling, what time-series databases deploy for retention, its guaranteed worst-case error is 28--56times tighter at equal size. End-to-end, once the context bootstrap is paid for, gains run from 6.8% at six months of hourly data to 15.1% asymptotically. Attempting to falsify the domain claim on SDRBench, theory predicts failure and delivers: -0.8% median, 0 of 27 pairs gaining. Three further negative results and eight retracted claims are reported in full.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 4 4

NELIOTA: The wide-field, high-cadence lunar monitoring system at the prime focus of the Kryoneri telescope

We present the technical specifications and first results of the ESA-funded, lunar monitoring project "NELIOTA" (NEO Lunar Impacts and Optical TrAnsients) at the National Observatory of Athens, which aims to determine the size-frequency distribution of small Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) via detection of impact flashes on the surface of the Moon. For the purposes of this project a twin camera instrument was specially designed and installed at the 1.2 m Kryoneri telescope utilizing the fast-frame capabilities of scientific Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor detectors (sCMOS). The system provides a wide field-of-view (17.0' times 14.4') and simultaneous observations in two photometric bands (R and I), reaching limiting magnitudes of 18.7 mag in 10 sec in both bands at a 2.5 signal-to-noise level. This makes it a unique instrument that can be used for the detection of NEO impacts on the Moon, as well as for any astronomy projects that demand high-cadence multicolor observations. The wide field-of-view ensures that a large portion of the Moon is observed, while the simultaneous, high-cadence, monitoring in two photometric bands makes possible, for the first time, the determination of the temperatures of the impacts on the Moon's surface and the validation of the impact flashes from a single site. Considering the varying background level on the Moon's surface we demonstrate that the NELIOTA system can detect NEO impact flashes at a 2.5 signal-to-noise level of ~12.4 mag in the I-band and R-band for observations made at low lunar phases ~0.1. We report 31 NEO impact flashes detected during the first year of the NELIOTA campaign. The faintest flash was at 11.24 mag in the R-band (about two magnitudes fainter than ever observed before) at lunar phase 0.32. Our observations suggest a detection rate of 1.96 times 10^{-7} events km^{-2} h^{-1}.

  • 16 authors
·
Sep 2, 2018