Daily Papers

As machine learning (ML) enters high-stakes domains, trustworthy uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for safety. In this paper we introduce PCS-UQ, a framework based on the Predictability, Computability, and Stability (PCS) principles for veridical data science. Starting with a candidate set of models or algorithms, PCS-UQ integrates a rigorous prediction-check to screen out unsuitable models in the set and utilizes bootstrap samples, in order to capture both inter-sample variability and algorithmic instability for the prediction-checked algorithms. We then introduce a novel multiplicative calibration scheme to enhance local adaptivity, which basically corresponds to a new score in conformal prediction. Moreover, we produce a compilation of 17 real-world regression datasets with manually-constructed subgroups. On this benchmark, PCS-UQ maintains the target coverage while outperforming or matching conformal methods equipped with oracle-selected algorithms in interval width. PCS-UQ achieves consistent subgroup coverage, outperforming these oracle-selected conformal methods. Notably, PCS-UQ stands out in achieving both competitive interval widths and consistent subgroup coverage.Across 6 classification datasets, PCS-UQ reduces prediction set sizes by 20\%. To scale the framework for deep learning, we propose computationally efficient variants that bypass expensive retraining. On three computer vision benchmarks, these variants reduce prediction set sizes by 20\% over conformal baselines. Finally, we provide theoretical proof that a modified PCS-UQ algorithm preserves valid coverage under exchangeability as a form of split conformal inference.

Large language model agents have shown strong potential in complex interactive tasks, yet their reinforcement learning (RL) is often hindered by sparse rewards, as a long multi-turn trajectory may receive only a single outcome-level signal. On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) provides dense token-level supervision from a privileged teacher, but the teacher may not be reliable at every position. Existing methods commonly rely on isolated token-level discrepancies, which can be sensitive to noise, or assign a shared step-level weight that may overlook positional variation. We propose Persistent Consistency Self-Distillation (PCSD), which derives token-level distillation weights from the local persistence of teacher-favoring signals. PCSD combines adaptive windows with exponentially decayed aggregation to capture persistent relative teacher support, applies trend-aware modulation to attenuate locally declining support, and produces continuous weights through sigmoid gating. The resulting objective is jointly optimized with GRPO, combining dense teacher guidance with sparse environmental feedback. Without inference-time skills, PCSD achieves the best ALFWorld Overall results among all baselines on both backbones, exceeding GRPO by 15.6 and 13.3 points and SDAR by 6.2 and 5.5 points, while remaining competitive on WebShop and gaining 15.8 points over GRPO on unseen ALFWorld split.