Daily Papers

Millimeter-wave (mmWave) radar pointcloud offers attractive potential for 3D sensing, thanks to its robustness in challenging conditions such as smoke and low illumination. However, existing methods failed to simultaneously address the three main challenges in mmWave radar pointcloud reconstruction: specular information lost, low angular resolution, and strong interference and noise. In this paper, we propose DREAM-PCD, a novel framework that combines signal processing and deep learning methods into three well-designed components to tackle all three challenges: Non-Coherent Accumulation for dense points, Synthetic Aperture Accumulation for improved angular resolution, and Real-Denoise Multiframe network for noise and interference removal. Moreover, the causal multiframe and "real-denoise" mechanisms in DREAM-PCD significantly enhance the generalization performance. We also introduce RadarEyes, the largest mmWave indoor dataset with over 1,000,000 frames, featuring a unique design incorporating two orthogonal single-chip radars, lidar, and camera, enriching dataset diversity and applications. Experimental results demonstrate that DREAM-PCD surpasses existing methods in reconstruction quality, and exhibits superior generalization and real-time capabilities, enabling high-quality real-time reconstruction of radar pointcloud under various parameters and scenarios. We believe that DREAM-PCD, along with the RadarEyes dataset, will significantly advance mmWave radar perception in future real-world applications.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Causality -- referring to temporal, uni-directional cause-effect relationships between components -- underlies many complex generative processes, including videos, language, and robot trajectories. Current causal diffusion models entangle temporal reasoning with iterative denoising, applying causal attention across all layers, at every denoising step, and over the entire context. In this paper, we show that the causal reasoning in these models is separable from the multi-step denoising process. Through systematic probing of autoregressive video diffusers, we uncover two key regularities: (1) early layers produce highly similar features across denoising steps, indicating redundant computation along the diffusion trajectory; and (2) deeper layers exhibit sparse cross-frame attention and primarily perform intra-frame rendering. Motivated by these findings, we introduce Separable Causal Diffusion (SCD), a new architecture that explicitly decouples once-per-frame temporal reasoning, via a causal transformer encoder, from multi-step frame-wise rendering, via a lightweight diffusion decoder. Extensive experiments on both pretraining and post-training tasks across synthetic and real benchmarks show that SCD significantly improves throughput and per-frame latency while matching or surpassing the generation quality of strong causal diffusion baselines.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Autoregressive video generation aims at real-time, open-ended synthesis. Yet, cinematic storytelling is not merely the endless extension of a single scene; it requires progressing through evolving events, viewpoint shifts, and discrete shot boundaries. Existing autoregressive models often struggle in this setting. Trained primarily for short-horizon continuation, they treat long sequences as extended single shots, inevitably suffering from motion stagnation and semantic drift during long rollouts. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalCine, an interactive autoregressive framework that transforms multi-shot video generation into an online directing process. CausalCine generates causally across shot changes, accepts dynamic prompts on the fly, and reuses context without regenerating previous shots. To achieve this, we first train a causal base model on native multi-shot sequences to learn complex shot transitions prior to acceleration. We then propose Content-Aware Memory Routing (CAMR), which dynamically retrieves historical KV entries according to attention-based relevance scores rather than temporal proximity, preserving cross-shot coherence under bounded active memory. Finally, we distill the causal base model into a few-step generator for real-time interactive generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalCine significantly outperforms autoregressive baselines and approaches the capability of bidirectional models while unlocking the streaming interactivity of causal generation. Demo available at https://yihao-meng.github.io/CausalCine/

The goal of video summarization is to automatically shorten videos such that it conveys the overall story without losing relevant information. In many application scenarios, improper video summarization can have a large impact. For example in forensics, the quality of the generated video summary will affect an investigator's judgment while in journalism it might yield undesired bias. Because of this, modeling explainability is a key concern. One of the best ways to address the explainability challenge is to uncover the causal relations that steer the process and lead to the result. Current machine learning-based video summarization algorithms learn optimal parameters but do not uncover causal relationships. Hence, they suffer from a relative lack of explainability. In this work, a Causal Explainer, dubbed Causalainer, is proposed to address this issue. Multiple meaningful random variables and their joint distributions are introduced to characterize the behaviors of key components in the problem of video summarization. In addition, helper distributions are introduced to enhance the effectiveness of model training. In visual-textual input scenarios, the extra input can decrease the model performance. A causal semantics extractor is designed to tackle this issue by effectively distilling the mutual information from the visual and textual inputs. Experimental results on commonly used benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance while being more explainable.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. But generating temporal consistent long videos is still challenging. A majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate long videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on last frames of previous clip. However, existing approaches all involve bidirectional computations, which restricts the receptive context of each autoregression step, and results in the model lacking long-term dependencies. Inspired from the huge success of large language models (LLMs) and following GPT (generative pre-trained transformer), we bring causal (i.e., unidirectional) generation into VDMs, and use past frames as prompt to generate future frames. For Causal Generation, we introduce causal temporal attention into VDM, which forces each generated frame to depend on its previous frames. For Frame as Prompt, we inject the conditional frames by concatenating them with noisy frames (frames to be generated) along the temporal axis. Consequently, we present Video Diffusion GPT (ViD-GPT). Based on the two key designs, in each autoregression step, it is able to acquire long-term context from prompting frames concatenated by all previously generated frames. Additionally, we bring the kv-cache mechanism to VDMs, which eliminates the redundant computation from overlapped frames, significantly boosting the inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our ViD-GPT achieves state-of-the-art performance both quantitatively and qualitatively on long video generation. Code will be available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/Causal-VideoGen.

True intelligence hinges on the ability to uncover and leverage hidden causal relations. Despite significant progress in AI and computer vision (CV), there remains a lack of benchmarks for assessing models' abilities to infer latent causality from complex visual data. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{Causal3D}, a novel and comprehensive benchmark that integrates structured data (tables) with corresponding visual representations (images) to evaluate causal reasoning. Designed within a systematic framework, Causal3D comprises 19 3D-scene datasets capturing diverse causal relations, views, and backgrounds, enabling evaluations across scenes of varying complexity. We assess multiple state-of-the-art methods, including classical causal discovery, causal representation learning, and large/vision-language models (LLMs/VLMs). Our experiments show that as causal structures grow more complex without prior knowledge, performance declines significantly, highlighting the challenges even advanced methods face in complex causal scenarios. Causal3D serves as a vital resource for advancing causal reasoning in CV and fostering trustworthy AI in critical domains.

Diffusion models (DMs) have achieved remarkable success in image and video generation. However, they still struggle with (1) physical alignment and (2) out-of-distribution (OOD) instruction following. We argue that these issues stem from the models' failure to learn causal directions and to disentangle causal factors for novel recombination. We introduce the Causal Scene Graph (CSG) and the Physical Alignment Probe (PAP) dataset to enable diagnostic interventions. This analysis yields three key insights. First, DMs struggle with multi-hop reasoning for elements not explicitly determined in the prompt. Second, the prompt embedding contains disentangled representations for texture and physics. Third, visual causal structure is disproportionately established during the initial, computationally limited denoising steps. Based on these findings, we introduce LINA (Learning INterventions Adaptively), a novel framework that learns to predict prompt-specific interventions, which employs (1) targeted guidance in the prompt and visual latent spaces, and (2) a reallocated, causality-aware denoising schedule. Our approach enforces both physical alignment and OOD instruction following in image and video DMs, achieving state-of-the-art performance on challenging causal generation tasks and the Winoground dataset. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/LINA.

Interactive autoregressive video generation demands both low-latency rollouts and precise online control. Few-step distillation accelerates generation by reducing denoising steps, while online control imposes a causal constraint: frames and blocks should depend on history and controls available during generation. Existing video distribution matching distillation (DMD) pipelines, however, often supervise causal few-step students using bidirectional teachers that score complete clips. The score for a target can therefore depend on future frames and controls that were unavailable when the student generated it, misaligning teacher supervision with the student's causal information set. We introduce Context-Matched Distillation (CMD), a causal DMD framework that aligns teacher supervision with the information available when each target is generated. CMD replaces bidirectional full-clip scoring with a causal teacher that evaluates each target without access to future frames or controls. The same causal teacher initializes the few-step student, establishing a consistent causal formulation across teacher training, student distillation, and inference. Beyond aligning the temporal information boundary, Prefix Scoring matches supervision to the student's realized rollout context by evaluating each target under the cached student-generated prefix that produced it. Prefix Corruption further stabilizes training by perturbing unreliable prefixes produced early in training while preserving this target-context alignment. With a simple causal formulation, CMD naturally extends to frame-wise and chunk-wise generation, long video distillation, and camera-conditioned distillation. Experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art aggregate performance among autoregressive methods on both short- and long-video benchmarks, together with substantially improved adherence to time-varying camera controls.

Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims to uncover the data-generating process and identify the underlying causal variables and relations, whose evaluation remains inherently challenging due to the requirement of known ground-truth causal variables and causal structure. Existing evaluations often rely on either simplistic synthetic datasets or downstream performance on real-world tasks, generally suffering a dilemma between realism and evaluative precision. In this paper, we introduce a new benchmark for CRL using high-fidelity simulated visual data that retains both realistic visual complexity and, more importantly, access to ground-truth causal generating processes. The dataset comprises around 200 thousand images and 3 million video frames across 24 sub-scenes in four domains: static image generation, dynamic physical simulations, robotic manipulations, and traffic situation analysis. These scenarios range from static to dynamic settings, simple to complex structures, and single to multi-agent interactions, offering a comprehensive testbed that hopefully bridges the gap between rigorous evaluation and real-world applicability. In addition, we provide flexible access to the underlying causal structures, allowing users to modify or configure them to align with the required assumptions in CRL, such as available domain labels, temporal dependencies, or intervention histories. Leveraging this benchmark, we evaluated representative CRL methods across diverse paradigms and offered empirical insights to assist practitioners and newcomers in choosing or extending appropriate CRL frameworks to properly address specific types of real problems that can benefit from the CRL perspective. Welcome to visit our: Project page:https://causal-verse.github.io/, Dataset:https://huggingface.co/CausalVerse.

Autoregressive video diffusion models hold promise for world simulation but are vulnerable to exposure bias arising from the train-test mismatch. While recent works address this via post-training, they typically rely on a bidirectional teacher model or online discriminator. To achieve an end-to-end solution, we introduce Resampling Forcing, a teacher-free framework that enables training autoregressive video models from scratch and at scale. Central to our approach is a self-resampling scheme that simulates inference-time model errors on history frames during training. Conditioned on these degraded histories, a sparse causal mask enforces temporal causality while enabling parallel training with frame-level diffusion loss. To facilitate efficient long-horizon generation, we further introduce history routing, a parameter-free mechanism that dynamically retrieves the top-k most relevant history frames for each query. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves performance comparable to distillation-based baselines while exhibiting superior temporal consistency on longer videos owing to native-length training.

We introduce Causal Diffusion as the autoregressive (AR) counterpart of Diffusion models. It is a next-token(s) forecasting framework that is friendly to both discrete and continuous modalities and compatible with existing next-token prediction models like LLaMA and GPT. While recent works attempt to combine diffusion with AR models, we show that introducing sequential factorization to a diffusion model can substantially improve its performance and enables a smooth transition between AR and diffusion generation modes. Hence, we propose CausalFusion - a decoder-only transformer that dual-factorizes data across sequential tokens and diffusion noise levels, leading to state-of-the-art results on the ImageNet generation benchmark while also enjoying the AR advantage of generating an arbitrary number of tokens for in-context reasoning. We further demonstrate CausalFusion's multimodal capabilities through a joint image generation and captioning model, and showcase CausalFusion's ability for zero-shot in-context image manipulations. We hope that this work could provide the community with a fresh perspective on training multimodal models over discrete and continuous data.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess. We develop methods for evaluating collections of n{2} bivariate causal statements over a set of n variables. In the setting of acyclic linear statements, any such collection can be extended to a unique multivariate causal model, but we argue that this induced model is implausible if it imposes substantial additional confounding to explain observed correlations. We introduce a compatibility score that quantifies this notion of plausibility, notably without relying on the faithfulness assumption. Additionally, we define an incompatibility score for purely graphical bivariate causal statements, based on global consistency constraints that are derived from acyclicity and faithfulness assumptions. We give theoretical and empirical evidence that both scores can successfully distinguish correct from incorrect causal statements in generic settings. Moreover, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our methods by analyzing causal claims made by large language models. Our work aims to provide a foundation for assessing the reliability of causal information derived from human experts or artificial intelligence in settings where alternative forms of validation are unavailable.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines. Over the past decades, numerous algorithms have been developed to tackle this challenge through workflows tailored to the specific causal mechanisms underlying each type of dataset, demonstrating effectiveness across a wide range of applications. However, as the volume and heterogeneity of real-world data continue to grow, this dataset-specific approach inevitably leads to a fragmented, test-driven paradigm that struggles to scale to the demands of modern scientific discovery. To address this, we formulate the Causal Discovery Foundation Model (CDFM) as a unified, general-purpose framework for zero-shot structural inference. To ensure reliable generalization across unknown domains, we first investigate the theoretical boundaries of causal identifiability, revealing the indispensable role of causal prior mechanisms in this process. Building on these insights, we formulate a principled variational framework that treats unknown causal mechanisms as latent variables and mathematically decomposes the intractable marginal likelihood into distinct, tractable learning modules. The variational decomposition provides a conceptual design principle for the architecture design of CDFM, while comprehensive causal knowledge guides the large-scale synthesis of our pretraining data. By pretraining on a massive, highly diverse space of synthetic structural causal models, CDFM successfully internalizes complex statistical asymmetries. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CDFM consistently outperforms traditional algorithms, driving a paradigm shift toward a general-purpose causal discovery foundation model.

Cause-and-effect reasoning in video is a significant challenge for Vision-Language Models (VLMs), as it requires going beyond surface-level perception to a deeper understanding of causal mechanisms. However, existing benchmarks rarely provide the fine-grained, grounded evidence needed to rigorously evaluate this capability. To address this gap, we introduce CaST-Bench, a benchmark for Causal Chain-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Video Reasoning. CaST-Bench presents complex causal questions that require models to identify and localize a chain of multiple spatio-temporal evidences. Through a human-AI collaborative pipeline, we construct a high-quality dataset of 2,066 questions over 1,015 videos, with causal chains annotated by temporal segments and bounding-box tracks. Furthermore, we design a comprehensive evaluation suite with novel metrics that assess not only answer correctness but also the capability for visual evidence grounded reasoning. This grounding is crucial for improving accuracy by mitigating spurious correlations and for enhancing user trust by making models more transparent. Our experiments show that current VLMs struggle with causal questions, largely due to their limited ability to construct precise and grounded causal chains. This highlights an important direction for improving future VLMs.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Causality testing, the act of determining cause and effect from measurements, is widely used in physics, climatology, neuroscience, econometrics and other disciplines. As a result, a large number of causality testing methods based on various principles have been developed. Causal relationships in complex systems are typically accompanied by entropic exchanges which are encoded in patterns of dynamical measurements. A data compression algorithm which can extract these encoded patterns could be used for inferring these relations. This motivates us to propose, for the first time, a generic causality testing framework based on data compression. The framework unifies existing causality testing methods and enables us to innovate a novel Compression-Complexity Causality measure. This measure is rigorously tested on simulated and real-world time series and is found to overcome the limitations of Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, especially for noisy and non-synchronous measurements. Additionally, it gives insight on the `kind' of causal influence between input time series by the notions of positive and negative causality.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. To extend the generation length and facilitate real-world applications, a majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on the last frame(s) of the previous clip. However, existing autoregressive VDMs are highly inefficient and redundant: The model must re-compute all the conditional frames that are overlapped between adjacent clips. This issue is exacerbated when the conditional frames are extended autoregressively to provide the model with long-term context. In such cases, the computational demands increase significantly (i.e., with a quadratic complexity w.r.t. the autoregression step). In this paper, we propose Ca2-VDM, an efficient autoregressive VDM with Causal generation and Cache sharing. For causal generation, it introduces unidirectional feature computation, which ensures that the cache of conditional frames can be precomputed in previous autoregression steps and reused in every subsequent step, eliminating redundant computations. For cache sharing, it shares the cache across all denoising steps to avoid the huge cache storage cost. Extensive experiments demonstrated that our Ca2-VDM achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative video generation results and significantly improves the generation speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/CausalCache-VDM

Current multimodal models aim to transcend the limitations of single-modality representations by unifying understanding and generation, often using text-to-image (T2I) tasks to calibrate semantic consistency. However, their reliance on static, single-image generation in training and evaluation leads to overfitting to static pattern matching and semantic fusion, while fundamentally hindering their ability to model dynamic processes that unfold over time. To address these constraints, we propose Envision-a causal event progression benchmark for chained text-to-multi-image generation. Grounded in world knowledge and structured by spatiotemporal causality, it reorganizes existing evaluation dimensions and includes 1,000 four-stage prompts spanning six scientific and humanities domains. To transition evaluation from single images to sequential frames and assess whether models truly internalize world knowledge while adhering to causal-temporal constraints, we introduce Envision-Score, a holistic metric integrating multi-dimensional consistency, physicality, and aesthetics. Comprehensive evaluation of 15 models (10 specialized T2I models, 5 unified models) uncovers: specialized T2I models demonstrate proficiency in aesthetic rendering yet lack intrinsic world knowledge. Unified multimodal models bridge this gap, consistently outperforming specialized counterparts in causal narrative coherence. However, even these unified architectures remain subordinate to closed-source models and struggle to overcome the core challenge of spatiotemporal consistency. This demonstrates that a focus on causally-isolated single images impedes multi-frame reasoning and generation, promoting static pattern matching over dynamic world modeling-ultimately limiting world knowledge internalization, generation.

Real-time interactive video generation requires low-latency, streaming, and controllable rollout. Existing autoregressive (AR) diffusion distillation methods have achieved strong results in the chunk-wise 4-step regime by distilling bidirectional base models into few-step AR students, but they remain limited by coarse response granularity and non-negligible sampling latency. In this paper, we study a more aggressive setting: frame-wise autoregression with only 1--2 sampling steps. In this regime, we identify the initialization of a few-step AR student as the key bottleneck: existing strategies are either target-misaligned, incapable of few-step generation, or too costly to scale. We propose Causal Forcing++, a principled and scalable pipeline that uses causal consistency distillation (causal CD) for few-step AR initialization. The core idea is that causal CD learns the same AR-conditional flow map as causal ODE distillation, but obtains supervision from a single online teacher ODE step between adjacent timesteps, avoiding the need to precompute and store full PF-ODE trajectories. This makes the initialization both more efficient and easier to optimize. The resulting pipeline, \ours, surpasses the SOTA 4-step chunk-wise Causal Forcing under the \textbf{frame-wise 2-step setting} by 0.1 in VBench Total, 0.3 in VBench Quality, and 0.335 in VisionReward, while reducing first-frame latency by 50\% and Stage 2 training cost by sim4times. We further extend the pipeline to action-conditioned world model generation in the spirit of Genie3. Project Page: https://github.com/thu-ml/Causal-Forcing and https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM .

Existing 3D scene generation methods often struggle to model the complex logical dependencies and physical constraints between objects, limiting their ability to adapt to dynamic and realistic environments. We propose CausalStruct, a novel framework that embeds causal reasoning into 3D scene generation. Utilizing large language models (LLMs), We construct causal graphs where nodes represent objects and attributes, while edges encode causal dependencies and physical constraints. CausalStruct iteratively refines the scene layout by enforcing causal order to determine the placement order of objects and applies causal intervention to adjust the spatial configuration according to physics-driven constraints, ensuring consistency with textual descriptions and real-world dynamics. The refined scene causal graph informs subsequent optimization steps, employing a Proportional-Integral-Derivative(PID) controller to iteratively tune object scales and positions. Our method uses text or images to guide object placement and layout in 3D scenes, with 3D Gaussian Splatting and Score Distillation Sampling improving shape accuracy and rendering stability. Extensive experiments show that CausalStruct generates 3D scenes with enhanced logical coherence, realistic spatial interactions, and robust adaptability.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence reveal the limits of purely predictive systems and call for a shift toward causal and collaborative reasoning. Drawing inspiration from the revolution of Grothendieck in mathematics, we introduce the relativity of causal knowledge, which posits structural causal models (SCMs) are inherently imperfect, subjective representations embedded within networks of relationships. By leveraging category theory, we arrange SCMs into a functor category and show that their observational and interventional probability measures naturally form convex structures. This result allows us to encode non-intervened SCMs with convex spaces of probability measures. Next, using sheaf theory, we construct the network sheaf and cosheaf of causal knowledge. These structures enable the transfer of causal knowledge across the network while incorporating interventional consistency and the perspective of the subjects, ultimately leading to the formal, mathematical definition of relative causal knowledge.

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.

Human understanding of video dynamics is typically grounded in a structured mental representation of entities, actions, and temporal relations, rather than relying solely on immediate deductive reasoning. In contrast, existing Video-LLMs largely depend on unstructured video reasoning, where critical visual evidence is embedded in verbose textual descriptions and temporal causality is often weakly modeled. This leads to inefficient processes and fragile causal inference. To bridge this cognitive gap, we propose constructing a compact representation of salient events and their causal relationships, which we name Structured Event Facts, prior to the reasoning stage. This structured prior serves as an explicit constraint to promote concise and causally grounded reasoning, while also making intermediate evidence easier to verify. To effectively train models on such structured facts, we introduce CausalFact-60K and a four-stage training pipeline comprising facts alignment, format warm-start, thinking warm-start, and reinforcement learning-based post-training. During RL stage, we find that this framework introduces competing objectives, as structural completeness and causal fidelity must be balanced against reasoning length, making it difficult to optimize. We address this challenge by formulating the optimization as a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) problem and explicitly optimizing toward the Pareto-Frontier to balance these trade-offs. As a result, we introduce Factum-4B, which yields more reliable reasoning and delivers stronger performance on challenging video understanding tasks requiring fine-grained temporal inference.

Causal video generators must predict from the past, but they need not learn only from it. In streaming autoregressive video diffusion, each emitted segment becomes a commitment that future segments must preserve. Standard training, however, only asks each causal state to explain the present. This creates what we call a representation-level planning gap: states that fit the current segment may discard identity, layout, and motion information needed for a consistent future. We introduce Video-Mirai, a training-only method that closes this gap without changing causal inference: the generator rolls out causally, a frozen foresight encoder reads the completed rollout non-causally, and a lightweight predictor distills the resulting stopped-gradient targets into causal states. Future frames supervise representations, never generator inputs. At inference, the encoder and predictor are discarded, leaving the original architecture, per-step FLOPs, and KV-cache behavior unchanged. Video-Mirai improves a strong Causal-Forcing baseline on 5-second VBench from 83.8 to 84.6 in terms of Total Score. On 30-second rollouts beyond the training horizon, subject consistency improves from 84.9 to 88.5 and background consistency from 90.2 to 91.9. Ablations identify future-conditioned targets as the key ingredient, and probes show that future frames become more decodable from current features. Causality should constrain inference, not representation supervision. Our study highlights that visual autoregressive models need foresight. Project page: https://y0uroy.github.io/Video-Mirai.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

The recent rapid advancement of Text-to-Video (T2V) generation technologies are engaging the trained models with more world model ability, making the existing benchmarks increasingly insufficient to evaluate state-of-the-art T2V models. First, current evaluation dimensions, such as per-frame aesthetic quality and temporal consistency, are no longer able to differentiate state-of-the-art T2V models. Second, event-level temporal causality-an essential property that differentiates videos from other modalities-remains largely unexplored. Third, existing benchmarks lack a systematic assessment of world knowledge, which are essential capabilities for building world models. To address these issues, we introduce VideoVerse, a comprehensive benchmark focusing on evaluating whether the current T2V model could understand complex temporal causality and world knowledge to synthesize videos. We collect representative videos across diverse domains and extract their event-level descriptions with inherent temporal causality, which are then rewritten into text-to-video prompts by independent annotators. For each prompt, we design ten evaluation dimensions covering dynamic and static properties, resulting in 300 prompts, 815 events, and 793 evaluation questions. Consequently, a human preference-aligned QA-based evaluation pipeline is developed by using modern vision-language models to systematically benchmark leading open- and closed-source T2V systems, revealing the current gap between T2V models and desired world modeling abilities.

Humans can look at a static scene and instantly predict what happens next -- will moving this object cause a collision? We call this ability Causal Spatial Reasoning. However, current multimodal large language models (MLLMs) cannot do this, as they remain largely restricted to static spatial perception, struggling to answer "what-if" questions in a 3D scene. We introduce CausalSpatial, a diagnostic benchmark evaluating whether models can anticipate consequences of object motions across four tasks: Collision, Compatibility, Occlusion, and Trajectory. Results expose a severe gap: humans score 84% while GPT-5 achieves only 54%. Why do MLLMs fail? Our analysis uncovers a fundamental deficiency: models over-rely on textual chain-of-thought reasoning that drifts from visual evidence, producing fluent but spatially ungrounded hallucinations. To address this, we propose the Causal Object World model (COW), a framework that externalizes the simulation process by generating videos of hypothetical dynamics. With explicit visual cues of causality, COW enables models to ground their reasoning in physical reality rather than linguistic priors. We make the dataset and code publicly available here: https://github.com/CausalSpatial/CausalSpatial

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Foundation models have brought changes to the landscape of machine learning, demonstrating sparks of human-level intelligence across a diverse array of tasks. However, a gap persists in complex tasks such as causal inference, primarily due to challenges associated with intricate reasoning steps and high numerical precision requirements. In this work, we take a first step towards building causally-aware foundation models for treatment effect estimations. We propose a novel, theoretically justified method called Causal Inference with Attention (CInA), which utilizes multiple unlabeled datasets to perform self-supervised causal learning, and subsequently enables zero-shot causal inference on unseen tasks with new data. This is based on our theoretical results that demonstrate the primal-dual connection between optimal covariate balancing and self-attention, facilitating zero-shot causal inference through the final layer of a trained transformer-type architecture. We demonstrate empirically that CInA effectively generalizes to out-of-distribution datasets and various real-world datasets, matching or even surpassing traditional per-dataset methodologies. These results provide compelling evidence that our method has the potential to serve as a stepping stone for the development of causal foundation models.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Causal discovery aims to recover directed causal relations from observational and interventional data, providing a basis for mechanistic understanding and reliable decision-making. Causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) seek to amortize this problem by mapping a dataset directly to a causal graph in a single forward pass, avoiding per-dataset testing, search, or optimization. However, existing CDFMs remain limited, often failing to consistently match strong classical methods, and we find that a key bottleneck is how causal pretraining tasks are constructed. Based on this observation, we propose TabCausal, a data-driven CDFM trained with broad causal pretraining over diverse graph priors, structural mechanisms, noise models, dimensions, sample sizes, and intervention regimes. A dynamic task construction strategy composes these causal environments into varied discovery tasks, enabling more transferable structural learning from observational and mixed-interventional data. On large-scale synthetic benchmarks, TabCausal achieves better macro-averaged performance than a diverse set of causal discovery baselines. To further bridge abstract synthetic generators and realistic causal reasoning scenarios, we introduce a protocol-guided and LLM-audited semantic causal environment benchmark, where domain-grounded SCMs generate interpretable observational and interventional datasets for out-of-distribution analysis. Across both synthetic and semantic environments, TabCausal demonstrates robust structure recovery, especially under interventional evidence, highlighting broad causal pretraining as a key ingredient for transferable amortized causal discovery.

Understanding and reasoning about the physical world is the foundation of intelligent behavior, yet state-of-the-art vision-language models (VLMs) still fail at causal physical reasoning, often producing plausible but incorrect answers. To address this gap, we introduce CausalPhys, a benchmark of over 3,000 carefully curated video- and image-based questions spanning four domains: Perception, Anticipation, Intervention, and Goal Orientation. Each question is paired with an expert-annotated causal graph capturing object-attribute-event dependencies, enabling interpretable and fine-grained evaluation of causal understanding. Building on this, we formulate a causal-graph-grounded metric that quantitatively measures how well a model's chain-of-thought reasoning aligns with the correct causal relations, moving beyond answer-only accuracy and enabling systematic diagnosis of VLMs' causal reasoning failures. Using this metric, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of leading VLMs, revealing systematic gaps in capturing causal dependencies and underscoring the need for causality-aware learning. To address these limitations, we further propose Causal Rationale-informed Fine-Tuning (CRFT), which explicitly aligns VLM reasoning with causal structures. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CRFT substantially enhances both reasoning accuracy and interpretability across multiple model backbones. By unifying dataset curation, causal evaluation, and causality-informed learning, CausalPhys establishes a strong foundation for advancing modern VLMs toward causally grounded physical reasoning.

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this causal discovery learning task have shown considerable skill, notably the specific time-series adaptations of the popular conditional independence-based learning framework. However, uncertainty estimation is challenging for conditional independence-based methods. Here, we introduce a novel bootstrap approach designed for time series causal discovery that preserves the temporal dependencies and lag structure. It can be combined with a range of time series causal discovery methods and provides a measure of confidence for the links of the time series graphs. Furthermore, next to confidence estimation, an aggregation, also called bagging, of the bootstrapped graphs by majority voting results in bagged causal discovery methods. In this work, we combine this approach with the state-of-the-art conditional-independence-based algorithm PCMCI+. With extensive numerical experiments we empirically demonstrate that, in addition to providing confidence measures for links, Bagged-PCMCI+ improves in precision and recall as compared to its base algorithm PCMCI+, at the cost of higher computational demands. These statistical performance improvements are especially pronounced in the more challenging settings (short time sample size, large number of variables, high autocorrelation). Our bootstrap approach can also be combined with other time series causal discovery algorithms and can be of considerable use in many real-world applications.

Temporal causal representation learning methods assume that causal mechanisms switch instantaneously between discrete domains, yet real-world systems often exhibit continuous mechanism transitions. For example, a vehicle's dynamics evolve gradually through a turning maneuver, and human gait shifts smoothly from walking to running. We formalize this setting by modeling transitional mechanisms as convex combinations of finitely many atomic mechanisms, governed by time-varying mixing coefficients. Our theoretical contributions establish that both the latent causal variables and the continuous mixing trajectory are jointly identifiable. We further propose TRACE, a Mixture-of-Experts framework where each expert learns one atomic mechanism during training, enabling recovery of mechanism trajectories at test time. This formulation generalizes to intermediate mechanism states never observed during training. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that TRACE recovers mixing trajectories with up to 0.99 correlation, substantially outperforming discrete-switching baselines.

Accurately forecasting the impact of macroeconomic events is critical for investors and policymakers. Salient events like monetary policy decisions and employment reports often trigger market movements by shaping expectations of economic growth and risk, thereby establishing causal relationships between events and market behavior. Existing forecasting methods typically focus either on textual analysis or time-series modeling, but fail to capture the multi-modal nature of financial markets and the causal relationship between events and price movements. To address these gaps, we propose CAMEF (Causal-Augmented Multi-Modality Event-Driven Financial Forecasting), a multi-modality framework that effectively integrates textual and time-series data with a causal learning mechanism and an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation technique for causal-enhanced financial forecasting. Our contributions include: (1) a multi-modal framework that captures causal relationships between policy texts and historical price data; (2) a new financial dataset with six types of macroeconomic releases from 2008 to April 2024, and high-frequency real trading data for five key U.S. financial assets; and (3) an LLM-based counterfactual event augmentation strategy. We compare CAMEF to state-of-the-art transformer-based time-series and multi-modal baselines, and perform ablation studies to validate the effectiveness of the causal learning mechanism and event types.

Despite the impressive performance of vision-language models (VLMs) on downstream tasks, their ability to understand and reason about causal relationships in visual inputs remains unclear. Robust causal reasoning is fundamental to solving complex high-level reasoning tasks, yet existing benchmarks often include a mixture of reasoning questions, and VLMs can frequently exploit object recognition and activity identification as shortcuts to arrive at the correct answers, making it challenging to truly assess their causal reasoning abilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce VQA-Causal and VCR-Causal, two new benchmarks specifically designed to isolate and rigorously evaluate VLMs' causal reasoning abilities. Our findings reveal that while VLMs excel in object and activity recognition, they perform poorly on causal reasoning tasks, often only marginally surpassing random guessing. Further analysis suggests that this limitation stems from a severe lack of causal expressions in widely used training datasets, where causal relationships are rarely explicitly conveyed. We additionally explore fine-tuning strategies with hard negative cases, showing that targeted fine-tuning can improve model's causal reasoning while maintaining generalization and downstream performance. Our study highlights a key gap in current VLMs and lays the groundwork for future work on causal understanding.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Despite the progress of foundation models, knowledge-based reasoning remains a persistent challenge due to their limited capacity for knowledge recall and inference. Existing methods primarily focus on encouraging these models to plan and solve problems or extensively sample reasoning chains independently. However, these methods often overlook conceptual errors and inferential fallacies, inevitably leading to a series of notorious issues such as misleading conclusions, cognitive biases, and reduced decision quality. While explicit modeling of causality is argued to hold promise in addressing these issues, contemporary research efforts have thus far fallen short in achieving causality-based foundation models. Drawing inspiration from the orchestration of diverse specialized agents collaborating to tackle intricate tasks, we propose a framework named Causal-Consistency Chain-of-Thought (CaCo-CoT) that harnesses multi-agent collaboration to bolster the faithfulness and causality of foundation models, involving a set of reasoners and evaluators. These agents collaboratively work within a reasoning-and-consensus paradigm to improve faithfulness. The reasoners are tasked with generating reasoning chains for knowledge-intensive problems by mimicking human causal reasoning. Meanwhile, the evaluator scrutinizes the causal consistency of a reasoner's reasoning chain from a non-causal and a counterfactual perspective. Our framework demonstrates significant superiority over state-of-the-art methods through extensive and comprehensive evaluations across text-based and multi-modal knowledge reasoning tasks (e.g., science question answering and commonsense reasoning).

Autoregressive video generation has emerged as a powerful paradigm for World Action Models (WAMs). However, existing approaches suffer from slow training convergence and limited converged accuracy, particularly at high frame rates, as the training supervision is confined to the current chunk without explicit signals about future dynamics; they also suffer from slow inference due to iterative video denoising. In this paper, we present Next Forcing, a multi-chunk prediction (MCP) framework for causal world modeling that enables faster training, higher accuracy, and accelerated inference. Inspired by multi-token prediction in large language models, Next Forcing introduces an MCP training objective that augments the main model with lightweight auxiliary MCP modules to simultaneously denoise video chunks at multiple future temporal horizons (next^1, next^2, next^3 chunks). These MCP modules form a causal chain across prediction depths, where intermediate features fused from multiple layers of the main model are leveraged to predict future dynamics, allowing near-future predictions to inform farther-future ones and providing dense multi-scale temporal supervision back to the main model. During training, the MCP modules significantly accelerate convergence and improve converged accuracy, especially at high frame rates: at 50 fps, Next Forcing achieves a 93.1% relative improvement over LingBot-VA at 5k training steps and 2.3x faster convergence, and establishes new state-of-the-art results on the RoboTwin benchmark (94.1/93.5% on Clean/Random). At inference, the MCP modules can be retained to predict the next video chunk in parallel with the current one, achieving 2x inference acceleration. Next Forcing also demonstrates significant improvements on PhyWorld, a benchmark evaluating adherence to physical laws in video generation, and over 50% FVD reduction on general video pretraining.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

Recent advances in motion diffusion models have substantially improved the realism of human motion synthesis. However, existing approaches either rely on full-sequence diffusion models with bidirectional generation, which limits temporal causality and real-time applicability, or autoregressive models that suffer from instability and cumulative errors. In this work, we present Causal Motion Diffusion Models (CMDM), a unified framework for autoregressive motion generation based on a causal diffusion transformer that operates in a semantically aligned latent space. CMDM builds upon a Motion-Language-Aligned Causal VAE (MAC-VAE), which encodes motion sequences into temporally causal latent representations. On top of this latent representation, an autoregressive diffusion transformer is trained using causal diffusion forcing to perform temporally ordered denoising across motion frames. To achieve fast inference, we introduce a frame-wise sampling schedule with causal uncertainty, where each subsequent frame is predicted from partially denoised previous frames. The resulting framework supports high-quality text-to-motion generation, streaming synthesis, and long-horizon motion generation at interactive rates. Experiments on HumanML3D and SnapMoGen demonstrate that CMDM outperforms existing diffusion and autoregressive models in both semantic fidelity and temporal smoothness, while substantially reducing inference latency.

Evaluating the video understanding capabilities of Video-Language Models (VLMs) remains a significant challenge. We propose a long-context video understanding benchmark, Causal2Needles, that assesses two crucial abilities insufficiently evaluated by existing benchmarks: (1) the ability to extract information from two separate locations in a long video and understand them jointly, and (2) the ability to model the world in terms of cause and effect in human behaviors. Specifically, Causal2Needles introduces 2-needle questions, which require extracting information from both the cause and effect human-behavior events in a long video and the associated narration text. To prevent textual bias, these questions comprise two complementary formats: one asking to identify the video clip containing the answer, and one asking for the textual description of an unrelated visual detail from that video clip. Our experiments reveal that models excelling in pre-existing benchmarks struggle with 2-needle visual grounding, and the model performance is negatively correlated with the distance between the two needles. These findings highlight critical limitations in current VLMs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased exceptional ability in causal reasoning from textual information. However, will these causalities remain straightforward for Vision Large Language Models (VLLMs) when only visual hints are provided? Motivated by this, we propose a novel Multimodal Causal Reasoning benchmark, namely MuCR, to challenge VLLMs to infer semantic cause-and-effect relationship when solely relying on visual cues such as action, appearance, clothing, and environment. Specifically, we introduce a prompt-driven image synthesis approach to create siamese images with embedded semantic causality and visual cues, which can effectively evaluate VLLMs' causal reasoning capabilities. Additionally, we develop tailored metrics from multiple perspectives, including image-level match, phrase-level understanding, and sentence-level explanation, to comprehensively assess VLLMs' comprehension abilities. Our extensive experiments reveal that the current state-of-the-art VLLMs are not as skilled at multimodal causal reasoning as we might have hoped. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive analysis to understand these models' shortcomings from different views and suggest directions for future research. We hope MuCR can serve as a valuable resource and foundational benchmark in multimodal causal reasoning research. The project is available at: https://github.com/Zhiyuan-Li-John/MuCR

The causalimages R package enables causal inference with image and image sequence data, providing new tools for integrating novel data sources like satellite and bio-medical imagery into the study of cause and effect. One set of functions enables image-based causal inference analyses. For example, one key function decomposes treatment effect heterogeneity by images using an interpretable Bayesian framework. This allows for determining which types of images or image sequences are most responsive to interventions. A second modeling function allows researchers to control for confounding using images. The package also allows investigators to produce embeddings that serve as vector summaries of the image or video content. Finally, infrastructural functions are also provided, such as tools for writing large-scale image and image sequence data as sequentialized byte strings for more rapid image analysis. causalimages therefore opens new capabilities for causal inference in R, letting researchers use informative imagery in substantive analyses in a fast and accessible manner.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

Most existing debiasing methods for multimodal models, including causal intervention and inference methods, utilize approximate heuristics to represent the biases, such as shallow features from early stages of training or unimodal features for multimodal tasks like VQA, etc., which may not be accurate. In this paper, we study bias arising from confounders in a causal graph for multimodal data and examine a novel approach that leverages causally-motivated information minimization to learn the confounder representations. Robust predictive features contain diverse information that helps a model generalize to out-of-distribution data. Hence, minimizing the information content of features obtained from a pretrained biased model helps learn the simplest predictive features that capture the underlying data distribution. We treat these features as confounder representations and use them via methods motivated by causal theory to remove bias from models. We find that the learned confounder representations indeed capture dataset biases, and the proposed debiasing methods improve out-of-distribution (OOD) performance on multiple multimodal datasets without sacrificing in-distribution performance. Additionally, we introduce a novel metric to quantify the sufficiency of spurious features in models' predictions that further demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed methods. Our code is available at: https://github.com/Vaidehi99/CausalInfoMin

Real-world tasks consist of multiple inter-dependent subtasks (e.g., a dirty pan needs to be washed before it can be used for cooking). In this work, we aim to model the causal dependencies between such subtasks from instructional videos describing the task. This is a challenging problem since complete information about the world is often inaccessible from videos, which demands robust learning mechanisms to understand the causal structure of events. We present Multimodal Subtask Graph Generation (MSG2), an approach that constructs a Subtask Graph defining the dependency between a task's subtasks relevant to a task from noisy web videos. Graphs generated by our multimodal approach are closer to human-annotated graphs compared to prior approaches. MSG2 further performs the downstream task of next subtask prediction 85% and 30% more accurately than recent video transformer models in the ProceL and CrossTask datasets, respectively.

In causal bandit problems, the action set consists of interventions on variables of a causal graph. Several researchers have recently studied such bandit problems and pointed out their practical applications. However, all existing works rely on a restrictive and impractical assumption that the learner is given full knowledge of the causal graph structure upfront. In this paper, we develop novel causal bandit algorithms without knowing the causal graph. Our algorithms work well for causal trees, causal forests and a general class of causal graphs. The regret guarantees of our algorithms greatly improve upon those of standard multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms under mild conditions. Lastly, we prove our mild conditions are necessary: without them one cannot do better than standard MAB algorithms.

Multivariate time series data typically comprises two distinct modalities: variable semantics and sampled numerical observations. Traditional time series models treat variables as anonymous statistical signals, overlooking the rich semantic information embedded in variable names and data descriptions. However, these textual descriptors often encode critical domain knowledge that is essential for robust and interpretable modeling. Here we present TimeMKG, a multimodal causal reasoning framework that elevates time series modeling from low-level signal processing to knowledge informed inference. TimeMKG employs large language models to interpret variable semantics and constructs structured Multivariate Knowledge Graphs that capture inter-variable relationships. A dual-modality encoder separately models the semantic prompts, generated from knowledge graph triplets, and the statistical patterns from historical time series. Cross-modality attention aligns and fuses these representations at the variable level, injecting causal priors into downstream tasks such as forecasting and classification, providing explicit and interpretable priors to guide model reasoning. The experiment in diverse datasets demonstrates that incorporating variable-level knowledge significantly improves both predictive performance and generalization.

Causal graphs provide a high-level language for making mechanisms transparent. Recent work uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to recover causal graphs of external-world processes. Instead, in this paper, we use causal graphs to model LLM inference itself, providing stakeholders with a transparent view of how the model perceives and organizes high-level concepts to produce a prediction. We propose a four-phase method for constructing such graphs. Given a target LLM and a set of textual examples, our method discovers class-discriminative, human-interpretable concepts and maps each input to LLM-perceived concept states. We then introduce an MCMC-inspired counterfactual augmentation procedure that expands the sparse observational data through chains of counterfactuals. This enables stable causal discovery with σ-CG, yielding informative, interpretable graphs. We apply our method to three LLMs across disease diagnosis, sentiment analysis, and LLM-as-a-judge classification tasks. We evaluate the learned graphs for predictive fidelity and structural stability, and the MCMC-inspired augmentation for convergence and downstream utility. Our results show that the discovered causal graphs capture meaningful dependencies consistent with LLMs' reasoning. Together, this paper provides a foundation for concept-level explainability of LLMs.

Recent video diffusion foundation models have achieved remarkable progress in high-quality video generation, yet turning them into real-time interactive video world models remains challenging. Interactive world models require controllable, causal, and low-latency rollout, which in practice demands a full pipeline spanning data construction, controllable fine-tuning, autoregressive training, few-step distillation, and streaming inference. In this work, we present minWM, a full-stack open-source framework for building real-time interactive video world models. minWM provides an end-to-end pipeline that converts existing bidirectional T2V/TI2V video foundation models into camera-controllable few-step autoregressive world models. Specifically, minWM first fine-tunes a bidirectional video diffusion model with camera control, and then applies the Causal Forcing / Causal Forcing++ pipeline, including AR diffusion training, causal ODE or causal consistency distillation, and asymmetric DMD, to distill it into a few-step autoregressive generator for low-latency rollout. The framework is modular and architecture-extensible: we instantiate it on representative open backbones, including Wan2.1-T2V-1.3B and HY1.5-TI2V-8B, covering both cross-attention-based condition injection and MMDiT-style architectures. minWM also supports adapting existing video world models, such as HY-WorldPlay, to new data distributions, training recipes, and latency targets. Beyond releasing runnable scripts, checkpoints, documentation, and inference code, we provide practical ablations on camera trajectory quality, controllability training steps, and minimal batch-size requirements. We hope minWM serves as a reproducible and extensible recipe for building and adapting real-time interactive video world models. Project Page: [https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM](https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM)

For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.

To achieve real-time interactive video generation, current methods distill pretrained bidirectional video diffusion models into few-step autoregressive (AR) models, facing an architectural gap when full attention is replaced by causal attention. However, existing approaches do not bridge this gap theoretically. They initialize the AR student via ODE distillation, which requires frame-level injectivity, where each noisy frame must map to a unique clean frame under the PF-ODE of an AR teacher. Distilling an AR student from a bidirectional teacher violates this condition, preventing recovery of the teacher's flow map and instead inducing a conditional-expectation solution, which degrades performance. To address this issue, we propose Causal Forcing that uses an AR teacher for ODE initialization, thereby bridging the architectural gap. Empirical results show that our method outperforms all baselines across all metrics, surpassing the SOTA Self Forcing by 19.3\% in Dynamic Degree, 8.7\% in VisionReward, and 16.7\% in Instruction Following. Project page and the code: https://thu-ml.github.io/CausalForcing.github.io/{https://thu-ml.github.io/CausalForcing.github.io/}

Recent advances in foundation models, especially in large multi-modal models and conversational agents, have ignited interest in the potential of generally capable embodied agents. Such agents will require the ability to perform new tasks in many different real-world environments. However, current foundation models fail to accurately model physical interactions and are therefore insufficient for Embodied AI. The study of causality lends itself to the construction of veridical world models, which are crucial for accurately predicting the outcomes of possible interactions. This paper focuses on the prospects of building foundation world models for the upcoming generation of embodied agents and presents a novel viewpoint on the significance of causality within these. We posit that integrating causal considerations is vital to facilitating meaningful physical interactions with the world. Finally, we demystify misconceptions about causality in this context and present our outlook for future research.

Despite recent advances in video understanding, the capabilities of Large Video Language Models (LVLMs) to perform video-based causal reasoning remains underexplored, largely due to the absence of relevant and dedicated benchmarks for evaluating causal reasoning in visually grounded and goal-driven settings. To fill this gap, we introduce a novel benchmark named Video-based long-form Causal Reasoning (VCRBench). We create VCRBench using procedural videos of simple everyday activities, where the steps are deliberately shuffled with each clip capturing a key causal event, to test whether LVLMs can identify, reason about, and correctly sequence the events needed to accomplish a specific goal. Moreover, the benchmark is carefully designed to prevent LVLMs from exploiting linguistic shortcuts, as seen in multiple-choice or binary QA formats, while also avoiding the challenges associated with evaluating open-ended QA. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art LVLMs on VCRBench suggests that these models struggle with video-based long-form causal reasoning, primarily due to their difficulty in modeling long-range causal dependencies directly from visual observations. As a simple step toward enabling such capabilities, we propose Recognition-Reasoning Decomposition (RRD), a modular approach that breaks video-based causal reasoning into two sub-tasks of video recognition and causal reasoning. Our experiments on VCRBench show that RRD significantly boosts accuracy on VCRBench, with gains of up to 25.2%. Finally, our thorough analysis reveals interesting insights, for instance, that LVLMs primarily rely on language knowledge for complex video-based long-form causal reasoning tasks.

We introduce a framework for generating highly multimodal datasets with explicitly calculable mutual information between modalities. This enables the construction of benchmark datasets that provide a novel testbed for systematic studies of mutual information estimators and multimodal self-supervised learning techniques. Our framework constructs realistic datasets with known mutual information using a flow-based generative model and a structured causal framework for generating correlated latent variables.

We develop a method for generating causal post-hoc explanations of black-box classifiers based on a learned low-dimensional representation of the data. The explanation is causal in the sense that changing learned latent factors produces a change in the classifier output statistics. To construct these explanations, we design a learning framework that leverages a generative model and information-theoretic measures of causal influence. Our objective function encourages both the generative model to faithfully represent the data distribution and the latent factors to have a large causal influence on the classifier output. Our method learns both global and local explanations, is compatible with any classifier that admits class probabilities and a gradient, and does not require labeled attributes or knowledge of causal structure. Using carefully controlled test cases, we provide intuition that illuminates the function of our objective. We then demonstrate the practical utility of our method on image recognition tasks.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

We present a conditional text generation framework that posits sentential expressions of possible causes and effects. This framework depends on two novel resources we develop in the course of this work: a very large-scale collection of English sentences expressing causal patterns CausalBank; and a refinement over previous work on constructing large lexical causal knowledge graphs Cause Effect Graph. Further, we extend prior work in lexically-constrained decoding to support disjunctive positive constraints. Human assessment confirms that our approach gives high-quality and diverse outputs. Finally, we use CausalBank to perform continued training of an encoder supporting a recent state-of-the-art model for causal reasoning, leading to a 3-point improvement on the COPA challenge set, with no change in model architecture.

The traditional i.i.d.-based learning paradigm faces inherent challenges in addressing causal relationships, which has become increasingly evident with the rise of applications in causal representation learning. Our understanding of causality naturally requires a perspective as the creator rather than observer, as the ``what...if'' questions only hold within the possible world we conceive. The traditional perspective limits capturing dynamic causal outcomes and leads to compensatory efforts such as the reliance on hidden confounders. This paper lays the groundwork for the new perspective, which enables the relation-first modeling paradigm for causality. Also, it introduces the Relation-Indexed Representation Learning (RIRL) as a practical implementation, supported by experiments that validate its efficacy.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

We introduce a new approach to functional causal modeling from observational data, called Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNN). CGNN leverages the power of neural networks to learn a generative model of the joint distribution of the observed variables, by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between generated and observed data. An approximate learning criterion is proposed to scale the computational cost of the approach to linear complexity in the number of observations. The performance of CGNN is studied throughout three experiments. Firstly, CGNN is applied to cause-effect inference, where the task is to identify the best causal hypothesis out of Xrightarrow Y and Yrightarrow X. Secondly, CGNN is applied to the problem of identifying v-structures and conditional independences. Thirdly, CGNN is applied to multivariate functional causal modeling: given a skeleton describing the direct dependences in a set of random variables X = [X_1, ldots, X_d], CGNN orients the edges in the skeleton to uncover the directed acyclic causal graph describing the causal structure of the random variables. On all three tasks, CGNN is extensively assessed on both artificial and real-world data, comparing favorably to the state-of-the-art. Finally, CGNN is extended to handle the case of confounders, where latent variables are involved in the overall causal model.

Understanding how the predictions of deep learning models are formed during the training process is crucial to improve model performance and fix model defects, especially when we need to investigate nontrivial training strategies such as active learning, and track the root cause of unexpected training results such as performance degeneration. In this work, we propose a time-travelling visual solution DeepVisualInsight (DVI), aiming to manifest the spatio-temporal causality while training a deep learning image classifier. The spatio-temporal causality demonstrates how the gradient-descent algorithm and various training data sampling techniques can influence and reshape the layout of learnt input representation and the classification boundaries in consecutive epochs. Such causality allows us to observe and analyze the whole learning process in the visible low dimensional space. Technically, we propose four spatial and temporal properties and design our visualization solution to satisfy them. These properties preserve the most important information when inverse-)projecting input samples between the visible low-dimensional and the invisible high-dimensional space, for causal analyses. Our extensive experiments show that, comparing to baseline approaches, we achieve the best visualization performance regarding the spatial/temporal properties and visualization efficiency. Moreover, our case study shows that our visual solution can well reflect the characteristics of various training scenarios, showing good potential of DVI as a debugging tool for analyzing deep learning training processes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently shown great promise in planning and reasoning applications. These tasks demand robust systems, which arguably require a causal understanding of the environment. While LLMs can acquire and reflect common sense causal knowledge from their pretraining data, this information is often incomplete, incorrect, or inapplicable to a specific environment. In contrast, causal representation learning (CRL) focuses on identifying the underlying causal structure within a given environment. We propose a framework that integrates CRLs with LLMs to enable causally-aware reasoning and planning. This framework learns a causal world model, with causal variables linked to natural language expressions. This mapping provides LLMs with a flexible interface to process and generate descriptions of actions and states in text form. Effectively, the causal world model acts as a simulator that the LLM can query and interact with. We evaluate the framework on causal inference and planning tasks across temporal scales and environmental complexities. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, with the causally-aware method outperforming LLM-based reasoners, especially for longer planning horizons.

Real-time portrait animation is essential for interactive applications such as virtual assistants and live avatars, requiring high visual fidelity, temporal coherence, ultra-low latency, and responsive control from dynamic inputs like reference images and driving signals. While diffusion-based models achieve strong quality, their non-causal nature hinders streaming deployment. Causal autoregressive video generation approaches enable efficient frame-by-frame generation but suffer from error accumulation, motion discontinuities at chunk boundaries, and degraded long-term consistency. In this work, we present a novel streaming framework named Knot Forcing for real-time portrait animation that addresses these challenges through three key designs: (1) a chunk-wise generation strategy with global identity preservation via cached KV states of the reference image and local temporal modeling using sliding window attention; (2) a temporal knot module that overlaps adjacent chunks and propagates spatio-temporal cues via image-to-video conditioning to smooth inter-chunk motion transitions; and (3) A "running ahead" mechanism that dynamically updates the reference frame's temporal coordinate during inference, keeping its semantic context ahead of the current rollout frame to support long-term coherence. Knot Forcing enables high-fidelity, temporally consistent, and interactive portrait animation over infinite sequences, achieving real-time performance with strong visual stability on consumer-grade GPUs.

Prior image-text matching methods have shown remarkable performance on many benchmark datasets, but most of them overlook the bias in the dataset, which exists in intra-modal and inter-modal, and tend to learn the spurious correlations that extremely degrade the generalization ability of the model. Furthermore, these methods often incorporate biased external knowledge from large-scale datasets as prior knowledge into image-text matching model, which is inevitable to force model further learn biased associations. To address above limitations, this paper firstly utilizes Structural Causal Models (SCMs) to illustrate how intra- and inter-modal confounders damage the image-text matching. Then, we employ backdoor adjustment to propose an innovative Deconfounded Causal Inference Network (DCIN) for image-text matching task. DCIN (1) decomposes the intra- and inter-modal confounders and incorporates them into the encoding stage of visual and textual features, effectively eliminating the spurious correlations during image-text matching, and (2) uses causal inference to mitigate biases of external knowledge. Consequently, the model can learn causality instead of spurious correlations caused by dataset bias. Extensive experiments on two well-known benchmark datasets, i.e., Flickr30K and MSCOCO, demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have emerged as a central focus in both industry and academia, but often suffer from biases introduced by visual and language priors, which can lead to multimodal hallucination. These biases arise from the visual encoder and the Large Language Model (LLM) backbone, affecting the attention mechanism responsible for aligning multimodal inputs. Existing decoding-based mitigation methods focus on statistical correlations and overlook the causal relationships between attention mechanisms and model output, limiting their effectiveness in addressing these biases. To tackle this issue, we propose a causal inference framework termed CausalMM that applies structural causal modeling to MLLMs, treating modality priors as a confounder between attention mechanisms and output. Specifically, by employing backdoor adjustment and counterfactual reasoning at both the visual and language attention levels, our method mitigates the negative effects of modality priors and enhances the alignment of MLLM's inputs and outputs, with a maximum score improvement of 65.3% on 6 VLind-Bench indicators and 164 points on MME Benchmark compared to conventional methods. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach while being a plug-and-play solution. Our code is available at: https://github.com/The-Martyr/CausalMM

Autoregressive video diffusion with causal diffusion transformers has emerged as a major paradigm for real-time streaming video generation and action-conditioned interactive world models. In this work, we extend rCM, an advanced diffusion distillation framework, to autoregressive video diffusion. The core philosophy of rCM lies in the complementarity between forward and reverse divergences, represented by consistency models (CMs) and distribution matching distillation (DMD), respectively, in diffusion distillation. This philosophy naturally carries over to the autoregressive setting, where teacher-forcing (TF) provides an offline, forward-divergence causal training paradigm, while self-forcing (SF) corresponds to an on-policy, reverse-divergence refinement. Our contributions are: (1) through extensive experiments, we show that teacher-forcing CM is currently the best complement to self-forcing DMD as an initialization strategy (2) we present the first implementation of teacher-forcing-based continuous-time CMs (e.g., sCM/MeanFlow) for autoregressive video diffusion, enabled by our custom-mask FlashAttention-2 JVP kernel, achieving 10times faster convergence compared to discrete-time CMs (dCMs) (3) we introduce Causal-rCM, a leading, unified, and scalable algorithm-infrastructure open recipe for diffusion distillation and causal training (4) we achieve state-of-the-art streaming video generation performance in both frame-wise and chunk-wise settings, using only synthetic data for training. Notably, our distilled 2-step causal Wan2.1-1.3B model achieves a VBench-T2V score of 84.63 with only 1 or 2 sampling steps. We further apply Causal-rCM to Cosmos 3, an advanced omnimodal world foundation model for physical AI with action-conditioned generation capability, enabling an interactive world model.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model electricity prices without explicit causal interpretation or counterfactual reasoning capabilities. We introduce Augmented Time Series Causal Models (ATSCM) for energy markets, extending counterfactual reasoning frameworks to multivariate temporal data with learned causal structure. Our approach models energy systems through interpretable factors (weather, generation mix, demand patterns), rich grid dynamics, and observable market variables. We integrate neural causal discovery to learn time-varying causal graphs without requiring ground truth DAGs. Applied to real-world electricity price data, ATSCM enables novel counterfactual queries such as "What would prices be under different renewable generation scenarios?".

Causal analysis plays a foundational role in scientific discovery and reliable decision-making, yet it remains largely inaccessible to domain experts due to its conceptual and algorithmic complexity. This disconnect between causal methodology and practical usability presents a dual challenge: domain experts are unable to leverage recent advances in causal learning, while causal researchers lack broad, real-world deployment to test and refine their methods. To address this, we introduce Causal-Copilot, an autonomous agent that operationalizes expert-level causal analysis within a large language model framework. Causal-Copilot automates the full pipeline of causal analysis for both tabular and time-series data -- including causal discovery, causal inference, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimization, result interpretation, and generation of actionable insights. It supports interactive refinement through natural language, lowering the barrier for non-specialists while preserving methodological rigor. By integrating over 20 state-of-the-art causal analysis techniques, our system fosters a virtuous cycle -- expanding access to advanced causal methods for domain experts while generating rich, real-world applications that inform and advance causal theory. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that Causal-Copilot achieves superior performance compared to existing baselines, offering a reliable, scalable, and extensible solution that bridges the gap between theoretical sophistication and real-world applicability in causal analysis. A live interactive demo of Causal-Copilot is available at https://causalcopilot.com/.

Text-to-Image Diffusion Models such as Stable-Diffusion and Imagen have achieved unprecedented quality of photorealism with state-of-the-art FID scores on MS-COCO and other generation benchmarks. Given a caption, image generation requires fine-grained knowledge about attributes such as object structure, style, and viewpoint amongst others. Where does this information reside in text-to-image generative models? In our paper, we tackle this question and understand how knowledge corresponding to distinct visual attributes is stored in large-scale text-to-image diffusion models. We adapt Causal Mediation Analysis for text-to-image models and trace knowledge about distinct visual attributes to various (causal) components in the (i) UNet and (ii) text-encoder of the diffusion model. In particular, we show that unlike generative large-language models, knowledge about different attributes is not localized in isolated components, but is instead distributed amongst a set of components in the conditional UNet. These sets of components are often distinct for different visual attributes. Remarkably, we find that the CLIP text-encoder in public text-to-image models such as Stable-Diffusion contains only one causal state across different visual attributes, and this is the first self-attention layer corresponding to the last subject token of the attribute in the caption. This is in stark contrast to the causal states in other language models which are often the mid-MLP layers. Based on this observation of only one causal state in the text-encoder, we introduce a fast, data-free model editing method Diff-QuickFix which can effectively edit concepts in text-to-image models. DiffQuickFix can edit (ablate) concepts in under a second with a closed-form update, providing a significant 1000x speedup and comparable editing performance to existing fine-tuning based editing methods.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as integrated data-science agents, combining abstract reasoning with advanced tool use. Yet the relevant benchmark landscape largely divides into symbolic causal reasoning benchmarks without realistic data analysis or data analysis benchmarks without a principled causal data-generating structure. Furthermore, existing causal evaluation datasets are often restricted to curated examples from existing sources, with diversity coming from limited templatized variations rather than from systematic generation of novel synthetic causal structures. We introduce CausalDS, a benchmark for evaluating causal reasoning in agentic data-science workflows. Each benchmark instance is a scene consisting of a sampled structural causal model (SCM) with generated observational data and an accompanying synthetic natural-language story grounded in a realistic domain. We optionally ground the composition of the benchmark components in empirical distributions obtained from real-world datasets, thus retaining empirical structure while reducing the "causal parrot" risk through completely synthetic generation. From each scene, we then derive tasks spanning all three of Pearl's rungs, with typical data-science prediction tasks appearing as Rung 1. Most tasks include a data science coding component, where the model typically needs to use several tools to arrive at the final answer due to the frequent presence of imperfect observations, which are generated by an observation model. Additionally, recognizing when a question admits no warranted answer and abstaining is treated as a first-class scored outcome. The benchmark thus jointly evaluates symbolic causal reasoning, data science, uncertainty quantification, abstention, and tool use/coding.

Research community has witnessed substantial growth in the detection of mental health issues and their associated reasons from analysis of social media. We introduce a new dataset for Causal Analysis of Mental health issues in Social media posts (CAMS). Our contributions for causal analysis are two-fold: causal interpretation and causal categorization. We introduce an annotation schema for this task of causal analysis. We demonstrate the efficacy of our schema on two different datasets: (i) crawling and annotating 3155 Reddit posts and (ii) re-annotating the publicly available SDCNL dataset of 1896 instances for interpretable causal analysis. We further combine these into the CAMS dataset and make this resource publicly available along with associated source code: https://github.com/drmuskangarg/CAMS. We present experimental results of models learned from CAMS dataset and demonstrate that a classic Logistic Regression model outperforms the next best (CNN-LSTM) model by 4.9\% accuracy.

We introduce CausaLab, a scalable environment for evaluating interactive causal discovery by LLM agents. Unlike prior evaluations, CausaLab evaluates both whether an agent can solve a problem using causal evidence and whether its answer is grounded in a faithful recovered causal mechanism. Each episode places an agent in a synthetic laboratory: it receives prior measurement records, intervenes on a manipulator crystal, and predicts the resonance frequency of a held-out reactor crystal governed by the same mechanism. The hidden data-generating process is a randomly sampled structural causal model (SCM), so success requires recovering both a causal graph and structural equations rather than recalling prior knowledge. Experiments show a persistent gap between prediction and mechanism recovery: in the purely observational 6-node setting, GPT-5.2-high reaches 92% task accuracy but only 0.471 all-edge F_1. Mixed observation-intervention strategies improve structural fidelity, while pure intervention remains difficult even for strong agents. We identify premature stopping as a major weakness and show that consistency verification mitigates it. CausaLab therefore separates predictive success from causal understanding and exposes current LLM agents' limits as experimental causal reasoners.

Causal thinking enables humans to understand not just what is seen, but why it happens. To replicate this capability in modern AI systems, we introduce the task of visual causal discovery. It requires models to infer cause-and-effect relations among visual entities across diverse scenarios instead of merely perceiving their presence. To this end, we first construct the Visual Causal Graph dataset (VCG-32K), a large-scale collection of over 32,000 images annotated with entity-level causal graphs, and further develop CauSight, a novel vision-language model to perform visual causal discovery through causally aware reasoning. Our training recipe integrates three components: (1) training data curation from VCG-32K, (2) Tree-of-Causal-Thought (ToCT) for synthesizing reasoning trajectories, and (3) reinforcement learning with a designed causal reward to refine the reasoning policy. Experiments show that CauSight outperforms GPT-4.1 on visual causal discovery, achieving over a threefold performance boost (21% absolute gain). Our code, model, and dataset are fully open-sourced at project page: https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauSight.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on large-scale multivariate datasets, most TSFMs are typically pre-trained on univariate time series. This limitation renders them oblivious to crucial information from diverse covariates in real-world forecasting tasks. To further enhance the performance of TSFMs, we propose a general covariate-aware adaptation (CoRA) framework for TSFMs. It leverages pre-trained backbones of foundation models while effectively incorporating exogenous covariates from various modalities, including time series, language, and images, to improve the quality of predictions. Technically, CoRA maintains the equivalence of initialization and parameter consistency during adaptation. With preserved backbones of foundation models as frozen feature extractors, the outcome embeddings from foundation models are empirically demonstrated more informative than raw data. Further, CoRA employs a novel Granger Causality Embedding (GCE) to automatically evaluate covariates regarding their causal predictability with respect to the target variate. We incorporate these weighted embeddings with a zero-initialized condition-injection mechanism, avoiding catastrophic forgetting of pre-trained foundation models and gradually integrates exogenous information. Extensive experiments show that CoRA of TSFMs surpasses state-of-the-art covariate-aware deep forecasters with full or few-shot training samples, achieving 31.1% MSE reduction on covariate-aware forecasting. Compared to other adaptation methods, CoRA exhibits strong compatibility with various advanced TSFMs and extends the scope of covariates to other modalities, presenting a practical paradigm for the application of TSFMs.

Model-based methods have recently shown promising for offline reinforcement learning (RL), aiming to learn good policies from historical data without interacting with the environment. Previous model-based offline RL methods learn fully connected nets as world-models that map the states and actions to the next-step states. However, it is sensible that a world-model should adhere to the underlying causal effect such that it will support learning an effective policy generalizing well in unseen states. In this paper, We first provide theoretical results that causal world-models can outperform plain world-models for offline RL by incorporating the causal structure into the generalization error bound. We then propose a practical algorithm, oFfline mOdel-based reinforcement learning with CaUsal Structure (FOCUS), to illustrate the feasibility of learning and leveraging causal structure in offline RL. Experimental results on two benchmarks show that FOCUS reconstructs the underlying causal structure accurately and robustly. Consequently, it performs better than the plain model-based offline RL algorithms and other causal model-based RL algorithms.

Causal Inference plays an significant role in explaining the decisions taken by statistical models and artificial intelligence models. Of late, this field started attracting the attention of researchers and practitioners alike. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of 37 papers published during 1992-2023 and concerning the application of causal inference to banking, finance, and insurance. The papers are categorized according to the following families of domains: (i) Banking, (ii) Finance and its subdomains such as corporate finance, governance finance including financial risk and financial policy, financial economics, and Behavioral finance, and (iii) Insurance. Further, the paper covers the primary ingredients of causal inference namely, statistical methods such as Bayesian Causal Network, Granger Causality and jargon used thereof such as counterfactuals. The review also recommends some important directions for future research. In conclusion, we observed that the application of causal inference in the banking and insurance sectors is still in its infancy, and thus more research is possible to turn it into a viable method.

Causal reasoning is a cornerstone of how humans interpret the world. To model and reason about causality, causal graphs offer a concise yet effective solution. Given the impressive advancements in language models, a crucial question arises: can they really understand causal graphs? To this end, we pioneer an investigation into language models' understanding of causal graphs. Specifically, we develop a framework to define causal graph understanding, by assessing language models' behaviors through four practical criteria derived from diverse disciplines (e.g., philosophy and psychology). We then develop CLEAR, a novel benchmark that defines three complexity levels and encompasses 20 causal graph-based tasks across these levels. Finally, based on our framework and benchmark, we conduct extensive experiments on six leading language models and summarize five empirical findings. Our results indicate that while language models demonstrate a preliminary understanding of causal graphs, significant potential for improvement remains. Our project website is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CLEAR.

Curating a large scale medical imaging dataset for machine learning applications is both time consuming and expensive. Balancing the workload between model development, data collection and annotations is difficult for machine learning practitioners, especially under time constraints. Causal analysis is often used in medicine and economics to gain insights about the effects of actions and policies. In this paper we explore the effect of dataset interventions on the output of image classification models. Through a causal approach we investigate the effects of the quantity and type of data we need to incorporate in a dataset to achieve better performance for specific subtasks. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the potential of causal analysis as a tool for resource optimization for developing medical imaging ML applications. We explore this concept with a synthetic dataset and an exemplary use-case for Diabetic Retinopathy image analysis.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong performance on offline video understanding, but most are limited to offline inference or have weak online reasoning, making multi-turn interaction over continuously arriving video streams difficult. Existing streaming methods typically use an interleaved perception-generation paradigm, which prevents concurrent perception and generation and leads to early memory decay as streams grow, hurting long-range dependency modeling. We propose Think While Watching, a memory-anchored streaming video reasoning framework that preserves continuous segment-level memory during multi-turn interaction. We build a three-stage, multi-round chain-of-thought dataset and adopt a stage-matched training strategy, while enforcing strict causality through a segment-level streaming causal mask and streaming positional encoding. During inference, we introduce an efficient pipeline that overlaps watching and thinking and adaptively selects the best attention backend. Under both single-round and multi-round streaming input protocols, our method achieves strong results. Built on Qwen3-VL, it improves single-round accuracy by 2.6% on StreamingBench and by 3.79% on OVO-Bench. In the multi-round setting, it maintains performance while reducing output tokens by 56%. Code is available at: https://github.com/wl666hhh/Think_While_Watching/

Conventional causal discovery methods rely on centralized data, which is inconsistent with the decentralized nature of data in many real-world situations. This discrepancy has motivated the development of federated causal discovery (FCD) approaches. However, existing FCD methods may be limited by their potentially restrictive assumptions of identifiable functional causal models or homogeneous data distributions, narrowing their applicability in diverse scenarios. In this paper, we propose a novel FCD method attempting to accommodate arbitrary causal models and heterogeneous data. We first utilize a surrogate variable corresponding to the client index to account for the data heterogeneity across different clients. We then develop a federated conditional independence test (FCIT) for causal skeleton discovery and establish a federated independent change principle (FICP) to determine causal directions. These approaches involve constructing summary statistics as a proxy of the raw data to protect data privacy. Owing to the nonparametric properties, FCIT and FICP make no assumption about particular functional forms, thereby facilitating the handling of arbitrary causal models. We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic and real datasets to show the efficacy of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/lokali/FedCDH.git.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit logically inconsistent hallucinations that appear coherent yet violate reasoning principles, with recent research suggesting an inverse relationship between causal reasoning capabilities and such hallucinations. However, existing reasoning approaches in LLMs, such as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) and its graph-based variants, operate at the linguistic token level rather than modeling the underlying causal relationships between variables, lacking the ability to represent conditional independencies or satisfy causal identification assumptions. To bridge this gap, we introduce causal-DAG construction and reasoning (CDCR-SFT), a supervised fine-tuning framework that trains LLMs to explicitly construct variable-level directed acyclic graph (DAG) and then perform reasoning over it. Moreover, we present a dataset comprising 25,368 samples (CausalDR), where each sample includes an input question, explicit causal DAG, graph-based reasoning trace, and validated answer. Experiments on four LLMs across eight tasks show that CDCR-SFT improves the causal reasoning capability with the state-of-the-art 95.33% accuracy on CLADDER (surpassing human performance of 94.8% for the first time) and reduces the hallucination on HaluEval with 10% improvements. It demonstrates that explicit causal structure modeling in LLMs can effectively mitigate logical inconsistencies in LLM outputs. Code is available at https://github.com/MrLYG/CDCR-SFT.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

We introduce MAGI, a hybrid video generation framework that combines masked modeling for intra-frame generation with causal modeling for next-frame generation. Our key innovation, Complete Teacher Forcing (CTF), conditions masked frames on complete observation frames rather than masked ones (namely Masked Teacher Forcing, MTF), enabling a smooth transition from token-level (patch-level) to frame-level autoregressive generation. CTF significantly outperforms MTF, achieving a +23% improvement in FVD scores on first-frame conditioned video prediction. To address issues like exposure bias, we employ targeted training strategies, setting a new benchmark in autoregressive video generation. Experiments show that MAGI can generate long, coherent video sequences exceeding 100 frames, even when trained on as few as 16 frames, highlighting its potential for scalable, high-quality video generation.

Recent advances in world models and video generation have given rise to an emerging reasoning paradigm that leverages video generative models to simulate, predict, and reason about real-world dynamics. We redefine this paradigm as Thinking in Video, where video is not merely an output artifact but a medium for constructing, extending, and verifying causal thought. However, this promise remains unverified: convincing rollouts may reflect memorized appearances rather than causal understanding, while existing metrics separate perceptual fidelity from semantic logic. To evaluate whether video generators support such reasoning, we introduce the Causal-Generative Dual-Judge (CGDJ), auditing World Model Consistency from two perspectives. Explicit Causal Perception tests whether a generator reads a video scenario as a reasoning problem through spatio-temporal flattened visual question answering, while Implicit Generative Perception-Prediction Gap evaluates whether it renders the causal consequence as a consistent future video. Applying CGDJ to representative open- and closed-source generators reveals a clear Perception-Prediction Gap: open-source models produce plausible dynamics despite near-zero explicit causal perception, whereas advanced closed-source systems show stronger but still limited alignment between reasoning and generation. Further analysis exposes audio-visual misalignment, where models verbalize correct causal logic more reliably than they render it, challenging the "world simulator" narrative.

In recent years, discriminative self-supervised methods have made significant strides in advancing various visual tasks. The central idea of learning a data encoder that is robust to data distortions/augmentations is straightforward yet highly effective. Although many studies have demonstrated the empirical success of various learning methods, the resulting learned representations can exhibit instability and hinder downstream performance. In this study, we analyze discriminative self-supervised methods from a causal perspective to explain these unstable behaviors and propose solutions to overcome them. Our approach draws inspiration from prior works that empirically demonstrate the ability of discriminative self-supervised methods to demix ground truth causal sources to some extent. Unlike previous work on causality-empowered representation learning, we do not apply our solutions during the training process but rather during the inference process to improve time efficiency. Through experiments on both controlled image datasets and realistic image datasets, we show that our proposed solutions, which involve tempering a linear transformation with controlled synthetic data, are effective in addressing these issues.

Efficiently capturing the long-range patterns in sequential data sources salient to a given task -- such as classification and generative modeling -- poses a fundamental challenge. Popular approaches in the space tradeoff between the memory burden of brute-force enumeration and comparison, as in transformers, the computational burden of complicated sequential dependencies, as in recurrent neural networks, or the parameter burden of convolutional networks with many or large filters. We instead take inspiration from wavelet-based multiresolution analysis to define a new building block for sequence modeling, which we call a MultiresLayer. The key component of our model is the multiresolution convolution, capturing multiscale trends in the input sequence. Our MultiresConv can be implemented with shared filters across a dilated causal convolution tree. Thus it garners the computational advantages of convolutional networks and the principled theoretical motivation of wavelet decompositions. Our MultiresLayer is straightforward to implement, requires significantly fewer parameters, and maintains at most a O(Nlog N) memory footprint for a length N sequence. Yet, by stacking such layers, our model yields state-of-the-art performance on a number of sequence classification and autoregressive density estimation tasks using CIFAR-10, ListOps, and PTB-XL datasets.

Recent Video Large Language Models (Video-LLMs) have shown strong multimodal reasoning capabilities, yet remain challenged by video understanding tasks that require consistent temporal ordering and causal coherence. Many parameter-efficient Video-LLMs rely on unconstrained bidirectional projectors to model inter-frame interactions, which can blur temporal ordering by allowing later frames to influence earlier representations, without explicit architectural mechanisms to respect the directional nature of video reasoning. To address this limitation, we propose V-CORE, a parameter-efficient framework that introduces explicit temporal ordering constraints for video understanding. V-CORE consists of two key components: (1) Learnable Spatial Aggregation (LSA), which adaptively selects salient spatial tokens to reduce redundancy, and (2) a Causality-Aware Temporal Projector (CATP), which enforces structured unidirectional information flow via block-causal attention and a terminal dynamic summary token acting as a causal sink. This design preserves intra-frame spatial interactions while ensuring that temporal information is aggregated in a strictly ordered manner. With 4-bit QLoRA and a frozen LLM backbone, V-CORE can be trained efficiently on a single consumer GPU. Experiments show that V-CORE achieves strong performance on the challenging NExT-QA benchmark, reaching 61.2% accuracy, and remains competitive across MSVD-QA, MSRVTT-QA, and TGIF-QA, with gains concentrated in temporal and causal reasoning subcategories (+3.5% and +5.2% respectively), directly validating the importance of explicit temporal ordering constraints.

We introduce BCAT, a PDE foundation model designed for autoregressive prediction of solutions to two dimensional fluid dynamics problems. Our approach uses a block causal transformer architecture to model next frame predictions, leveraging previous frames as contextual priors rather than relying solely on sub-frames or pixel-based inputs commonly used in image generation methods. This block causal framework more effectively captures the spatial dependencies inherent in nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics and physical phenomena. In an ablation study, next frame prediction demonstrated a 3.5x accuracy improvement over next token prediction. BCAT is trained on a diverse range of fluid dynamics datasets, including incompressible and compressible Navier-Stokes equations across various geometries and parameter regimes, as well as the shallow-water equations. The model's performance was evaluated on 6 distinct downstream prediction tasks and tested on about 8K trajectories to measure robustness on a variety of fluid dynamics simulations. BCAT achieved an average relative error of 1.18% across all evaluation tasks, outperforming prior approaches on standard benchmarks. With fine-tuning on a turbulence dataset, we show that the method adapts to new settings with more than 40% better accuracy over prior methods.

We introduce Arrow, a foundation model for zero-shot causal discovery on observational tabular data. Arrow factorizes a directed acyclic graph into an undirected skeleton and a topological order, guaranteeing acyclicity by construction. Given a new dataset, it uses a transformer-based architecture to contextualize variables within and across observations, then predicts skeleton edge probabilities and node order scores that together define a graph. Arrow is trained in a supervised fashion on synthetic datasets with ground-truth graphs, using an end-to-end differentiable directed edge composite likelihood induced by the skeleton-order factorization. The training distribution spans diverse graph families, functional forms, noise models, and dataset shapes. Across in- and out-of-distribution synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets, Arrow matches or outperforms existing causal discovery methods at substantially lower inference cost than competitive alternatives. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining on diverse synthetic data can yield zero-shot causal discovery models that are fast, accurate, and reusable on new datasets.

Causal relation extraction (CRE) is central to biomedical text mining, but current resources often conflate causal relations with broader associations, restrict annotation to sentence-level examples, or focus mainly on explicit causal cues. This limits their usefulness for evaluating whether models can recover causal claims as they are actually expressed in biomedical text. We introduce PubMedCausal, a span-level annotated corpus for biomedical CRE built from PubMed abstracts. The corpus contains 30,000 paragraph-level rows, including 3,945 causal rows and 6,491 adjudicated cause--effect pairs. Each causal relation is annotated with full-text cause and effect spans, causality type, and sententiality, enabling evaluation of both causal detection and full-span causal extraction. We benchmark discriminative encoders and open-source generative models across detection and extraction settings. For causal detection, biomedical encoders are strongest, with PubMedBERT reaching an F_1 score of 0.7391. For span-level extraction, the best generative baseline is DeepSeek-R1-32B with few-shot prompting, reaching a Cosine Pair F_1 of 0.6765. We further test transfer learning by evaluating PubMedCausal-trained encoders on external causal relation datasets, showing that the resource supports cross-dataset evaluation. Our results show that biomedical CRE remains difficult under class imbalance, long causal spans, implicit causality, inter-sentential relations, and prompt sensitivity. Code and Data can be found here: https://github.com/josiahpaul07/PubMedCausal_Exp

Despite decades of progress, a truly input-size agnostic visual encoder-a fundamental characteristic of human vision-has remained elusive. We address this limitation by proposing MambaEye, a novel, causal sequential encoder that leverages the low complexity and causal-process based pure Mamba2 backbone. Unlike previous Mamba-based vision encoders that often employ bidirectional processing, our strictly unidirectional approach preserves the inherent causality of State Space Models, enabling the model to generate a prediction at any point in its input sequence. A core innovation is our use of relative move embedding, which encodes the spatial shift between consecutive patches, providing a strong inductive bias for translation invariance and making the model inherently adaptable to arbitrary image resolutions and scanning patterns. To achieve this, we introduce a novel diffusion-inspired loss function that provides dense, step-wise supervision, training the model to build confidence as it gathers more visual evidence. We demonstrate that MambaEye exhibits robust performance across a wide range of image resolutions, especially at higher resolutions such as 1536^2 on the ImageNet-1K classification task. This feat is achieved while maintaining linear time and memory complexity relative to the number of patches.

A central goal of science is to produce valid explanations of complex systems: high-level causal accounts that faithfully reflect the behavior of lower-level mechanisms. Yet no consensus exists on how to measure whether a proposed high-level explanation is actually valid. We introduce a benchmark of ten complex systems spanning both discrete and continuous state spaces, as well as static and dynamical regimes, each equipped with consensual ground-truth causal explanations and invalid contrastive conditions. Within a unified causal abstraction framework, we systematically evaluate over thirty candidate metrics drawn from observational, functional, information-theoretic, and causal families. Our results show that only the latter reliably discriminates valid from invalid abstractions, and only when incorporating faithfulness testing over unmapped variables. Building on these findings, we introduce the Causal Abstraction Error (CAE), a continuous validity metric with an explicit faithfulness test, which passes all discrimination tests across every system and can converge with as few as 30 sampled interventions. We offer it as a general-purpose metric for the discovery and validation of high-level explanations.

Generating motion-controlled videos--where user-specified actions drive physically plausible scene dynamics under freely chosen viewpoints--demands two capabilities: (1) disentangled motion control, allowing users to separately control the object motion and adjust camera viewpoint; and (2) motion causality, ensuring that user-driven actions trigger coherent reactions from other objects rather than merely displacing pixels. Existing methods fall short on both fronts: they entangle camera and object motion into a single tracking signal and treat motion as kinematic displacement without modeling causal relationships between object motion. We introduce MoRight, a unified framework that addresses both limitations through disentangled motion modeling. Object motion is specified in a canonical static-view and transferred to an arbitrary target camera viewpoint via temporal cross-view attention, enabling disentangled camera and object control. We further decompose motion into active (user-driven) and passive (consequence) components, training the model to learn motion causality from data. At inference, users can either supply active motion and MoRight predicts consequences (forward reasoning), or specify desired passive outcomes and MoRight recovers plausible driving actions (inverse reasoning), all while freely adjusting the camera viewpoint. Experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in generation quality, motion controllability, and interaction awareness.

Causal representation learning has showed a variety of settings in which we can disentangle latent variables with identifiability guarantees (up to some reasonable equivalence class). Common to all of these approaches is the assumption that (1) the latent variables are represented as d-dimensional vectors, and (2) that the observations are the output of some injective generative function of these latent variables. While these assumptions appear benign, we show that when the observations are of multiple objects, the generative function is no longer injective and disentanglement fails in practice. We can address this failure by combining recent developments in object-centric learning and causal representation learning. By modifying the Slot Attention architecture arXiv:2006.15055, we develop an object-centric architecture that leverages weak supervision from sparse perturbations to disentangle each object's properties. This approach is more data-efficient in the sense that it requires significantly fewer perturbations than a comparable approach that encodes to a Euclidean space and we show that this approach successfully disentangles the properties of a set of objects in a series of simple image-based disentanglement experiments.

Recent advances in video generation have been dominated by diffusion and flow-matching models, which produce high-quality results but remain computationally intensive and difficult to scale. In this work, we introduce VideoAR, the first large-scale Visual Autoregressive (VAR) framework for video generation that combines multi-scale next-frame prediction with autoregressive modeling. VideoAR disentangles spatial and temporal dependencies by integrating intra-frame VAR modeling with causal next-frame prediction, supported by a 3D multi-scale tokenizer that efficiently encodes spatio-temporal dynamics. To improve long-term consistency, we propose Multi-scale Temporal RoPE, Cross-Frame Error Correction, and Random Frame Mask, which collectively mitigate error propagation and stabilize temporal coherence. Our multi-stage pretraining pipeline progressively aligns spatial and temporal learning across increasing resolutions and durations. Empirically, VideoAR achieves new state-of-the-art results among autoregressive models, improving FVD on UCF-101 from 99.5 to 88.6 while reducing inference steps by over 10x, and reaching a VBench score of 81.74-competitive with diffusion-based models an order of magnitude larger. These results demonstrate that VideoAR narrows the performance gap between autoregressive and diffusion paradigms, offering a scalable, efficient, and temporally consistent foundation for future video generation research.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable ability in various language tasks, especially with their emergent in-context learning capability. Extending LLMs to incorporate visual inputs, large vision-language models (LVLMs) have shown impressive performance in tasks such as recognition and visual question answering (VQA). Despite increasing interest in the utility of LLMs in causal reasoning tasks such as causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning, there has been relatively little work showcasing the abilities of LVLMs on visual causal reasoning tasks. We take this opportunity to formally introduce a comprehensive causal reasoning benchmark for multi-modal in-context learning from LVLMs. Our CausalVLBench encompasses three representative tasks: causal structure inference, intervention target prediction, and counterfactual prediction. We evaluate the ability of state-of-the-art open-source LVLMs on our causal reasoning tasks across three causal representation learning datasets and demonstrate their fundamental strengths and weaknesses. We hope that our benchmark elucidates the drawbacks of existing vision-language models and motivates new directions and paradigms in improving the visual causal reasoning abilities of LVLMs.

Practitioners inferring causality from observational data usually rely on a single method and treat its output as causal truth. Recent tools select an optimal method for a dataset, and recent ensembles aggregate multiple causal-discovery algorithms into one graph, but little work pools evidence across different mathematical traditions, including non-causal ones. We present Multi-Method Causal Evidence Synthesis (MCES), a framework that ranks which candidate drivers in an observational system are most likely relevant to a set of outcomes, and with what strength of evidence. MCES runs eleven methods across eight mathematical traditions on observational panel data and pools their outputs into a Convergent Evidence Score (CES), a linear opinion pool. CES quantifies convergence of evidence across analytical lenses: the degree to which methods with different assumptions point to the same driver-outcome relationship. It does not claim causal identification in the interventionist sense; it supports hypothesis prioritization, not a transferable probability of causation. MCES first applies Structural-Behavioral Decomposition to remove definitional (algebraic) relationships, then runs all methods, normalizes outputs to [0,1], and pools them. We distinguish MCES from method selection, structural ensembles, prediction ensembles, and literature synthesis. Using synthetic data with embedded ground truth, the Sachs protein-signaling benchmark, six Bayesian-network structure benchmarks, and two further synthetic domains, we show MCES ranks true edges near the top (Precision@5 = 1.0, Precision@10 = 0.96 on the primary scenario), with a low empirical rate of null pairs reaching Moderate-or-higher convergence. Our central point is not that the pool beats every individual method, but that no single method is uniformly best across the evaluated scenarios, so MCES offers a method-agnostic default.

Can multi-agent communication pressure extract discrete, compositional representations of invisible physical properties from frozen video features? We show that agents communicating through a Gumbel-Softmax bottleneck with iterated learning develop positionally disentangled protocols for latent properties (elasticity, friction, mass ratio) without property labels or supervision on message structure. With 4 agents, 100% of 80 seeds converge to near-perfect compositionality (PosDis=0.999, holdout 98.3%). Controls confirm multi-agent structure -- not bandwidth or temporal coverage -- drives this effect. Causal intervention shows surgical property disruption (~15% drop on targeted property, <3% on others). A controlled backbone comparison reveals that the perceptual prior determines what is communicable: DINOv2 dominates on spatially-visible ramp physics (98.3% vs 95.1%), while V-JEPA 2 dominates on dynamics-only collision physics (87.4% vs 77.7%, d=2.74). Scale-matched (d=3.37) and frame-matched (d=6.53) controls attribute this gap entirely to video-native pretraining. The frozen protocol supports action-conditioned planning (91.5%) with counterfactual velocity reasoning (r=0.780). Validation on Physics 101 real camera footage confirms 85.6% mass-comparison accuracy on unseen objects, temporal dynamics contributing +11.2% beyond static appearance, agent-scaling compositionality replicating at 90% for 4 agents, and causal intervention extending to real video (d=1.87, p=0.022).

Causal representation learning seeks to extract high-level latent factors from low-level sensory data. Most existing methods rely on observational data and structural assumptions (e.g., conditional independence) to identify the latent factors. However, interventional data is prevalent across applications. Can interventional data facilitate causal representation learning? We explore this question in this paper. The key observation is that interventional data often carries geometric signatures of the latent factors' support (i.e. what values each latent can possibly take). For example, when the latent factors are causally connected, interventions can break the dependency between the intervened latents' support and their ancestors'. Leveraging this fact, we prove that the latent causal factors can be identified up to permutation and scaling given data from perfect do interventions. Moreover, we can achieve block affine identification, namely the estimated latent factors are only entangled with a few other latents if we have access to data from imperfect interventions. These results highlight the unique power of interventional data in causal representation learning; they can enable provable identification of latent factors without any assumptions about their distributions or dependency structure.

State-of-the-art whole-body pose estimators often lack robustness, producing anatomically implausible predictions in challenging scenes. We posit this failure stems from spurious correlations learned from visual context, a problem we formalize using a Structural Causal Model (SCM). The SCM identifies visual context as a confounder that creates a non-causal backdoor path, corrupting the model's reasoning. We introduce the Causal Intervention Graph Pose (CIGPose) framework to address this by approximating the true causal effect between visual evidence and pose. The core of CIGPose is a novel Causal Intervention Module: it first identifies confounded keypoint representations via predictive uncertainty and then replaces them with learned, context-invariant canonical embeddings. These deconfounded embeddings are processed by a hierarchical graph neural network that reasons over the human skeleton at both local and global semantic levels to enforce anatomical plausibility. Extensive experiments show CIGPose achieves a new state-of-the-art on COCO-WholeBody. Notably, our CIGPose-x model achieves 67.0\% AP, surpassing prior methods that rely on extra training data. With the additional UBody dataset, CIGPose-x is further boosted to 67.5\% AP, demonstrating superior robustness and data efficiency. The codes and models are publicly available at https://github.com/53mins/CIGPose.