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Sep 3

Detecting and Mitigating Treatment Leakage in Text-Based Causal Inference: Distillation and Sensitivity Analysis

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

JerzakLabs Jerzak Labs
·
Dec 30, 2025

Every Picture Tells a Dangerous Story: Memory-Augmented Multi-Agent Jailbreak Attacks on VLMs

The rapid evolution of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) has catalyzed unprecedented capabilities in artificial intelligence; however, this continuous modal expansion has inadvertently exposed a vastly broadened and unconstrained adversarial attack surface. Current multimodal jailbreak strategies primarily focus on surface-level pixel perturbations and typographic attacks or harmful images; however, they fail to engage with the complex semantic structures intrinsic to visual data. This leaves the vast semantic attack surface of original, natural images largely unscrutinized. Driven by the need to expose these deep-seated semantic vulnerabilities, we introduce MemJack, a MEMory-augmented multi-agent JAilbreak attaCK framework that explicitly leverages visual semantics to orchestrate automated jailbreak attacks. MemJack employs coordinated multi-agent cooperation to dynamically map visual entities to malicious intents, generate adversarial prompts via multi-angle visual-semantic camouflage, and utilize an Iterative Nullspace Projection (INLP) geometric filter to bypass premature latent space refusals. By accumulating and transferring successful strategies through a persistent Multimodal Experience Memory, MemJack maintains highly coherent extended multi-turn jailbreak attack interactions across different images, thereby improving the attack success rate (ASR) on new images. Extensive empirical evaluations across full, unmodified COCO val2017 images demonstrate that MemJack achieves a 71.48\% ASR against Qwen3-VL-Plus, scaling to 90\% under extended budgets. Furthermore, to catalyze future defensive alignment research, we will release MemJack-Bench, a comprehensive dataset comprising over 113,000 interactive multimodal jailbreak attack trajectories, establishing a vital foundation for developing inherently robust VLMs.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 13

CRANE: Constrained Reasoning Injection for Code Agents via Nullspace Editing

Code agents must both reason over long-horizon repository state and obey strict tool-use protocols. In paired Instruct/Thinking checkpoints, these capabilities are complementary but misaligned. The Instruct model is concise and tool-disciplined, whereas the Thinking model offers stronger planning and recovery behavior but often over-deliberates and degrades agent performance. We present CRANE (Constrained Reasoning Injection for Code Agents via Nullspace Editing), a training-free parameter-editing method that treats the Thinking-Instruct delta as a directional pool of candidate reasoning edits for the Instruct backbone. CRANE combines magnitude thresholding to denoise the delta, a Conservative Taylor Gate to retain edits that are jointly beneficial for reasoning transfer and tool-use preservation, and Graduated Sigmoidal Projection to suppress format-critical update directions. By merging paired Instruct and Thinking checkpoints, CRANE delivers strong gains over either individual model while preserving Instruct-level efficiency: on Roo-Eval it achieves pass1 of 66.2% (+19.5%) for Qwen3-30B-A3B and 81.5% (+8.7%) for Qwen3-Next-80B-A3B; on SWE-bench-Verified it resolves up to 14 additional instances at both scales (122/500 and 180/500); and on Terminal-Bench v2 it improves pass1/pass5 by up to 2.3%/7.8%, reaching 7.6%/17.9% and 14.8%/30.3%, respectively, consistently outperforming alternative merging strategies across all three benchmarks.

  • 4 authors
·
May 12

LightAIR: Lightweight Action Inversion and Riemannian Rectification for Text-based Person Anomaly Search

Traditional Text-based Person Search (TPS) is typically limited to matching static appearance attributes, severely neglecting dynamic action information. The Text-based Person Anomaly Search (TPAS) task bridges this gap, requiring models to locate micro-level specific abnormal behaviors while matching macro-level appearance of pedestrians. However, current TPAS methods face fundamental limitations: external explicit pose estimators are fragile in unconstrained surveillance scenarios, and implicit learning encounters visual decoupling failure under pixel-level entanglement, causing dominant appearance information to easily swallow and contaminate subtle action features. Furthermore, performing contrastive optimization on hard negative samples (``same appearance, different actions'') in conventional Euclidean spaces induces severe shortcut learning. To address these, we propose the Lightweight Action Inversion and Riemannian rectification network (LightAIR). First, it introduces textual semantic priors as anchors via a lightweight action inversion operator to extract pure action features, thereby overcoming visual-inherent coupling. Subsequently, it employs orthogonal null-space projection to constrain appearance features within the orthogonal complement space of action features, guaranteeing strict forward decoupling. Finally, we designed a gradient rectification module that computes the Riemannian gradient to constrain the backpropagation trajectory, forcing the gradient flow to update strictly along the tangent space that preserves decoupling properties, thereby cutting off harmful shortcuts. Extensive experiments on the widely used TPAS and TIPR datasets demonstrate that LightAIR significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Codes are available at https://github.com/rainy-london/LightAIR

  • 9 authors
·
Aug 9

Forgetting That Sticks: Quantization-Permanent Unlearning via Circuit Attribution

Standard unlearning evaluations measure behavioral suppression in full precision, immediately after training, despite every deployed language model being quantized first. Recent work has shown that 4-bit post-training quantization can reverse machine unlearning; we show this is not a tuning artefact but a systematic dual failure: gradient-based methods that achieve meaningful forgetting lose it under compression, while methods that survive quantization barely change the model. Both failures trace to the same root cause: across all baselines, per-parameter updates lie 47-828x below the NF4 quantization bin width; updates diffused across billions of parameters cannot clear quantization bin boundaries, a consequence we formalize as a sparsity-permanence tradeoff. We present MANSU (Mechanistic-Aligned Null-Space Unlearning), which resolves both modes by combining causal circuit attribution to isolate the minimal forget-set subgraph, circuit-restricted null-space projection with a diagonal-Fisher retain bound, and a per-parameter magnitude floor guaranteeing quantization survival by construction. We additionally introduce Circuit Attribution Divergence (CAD), a mechanistic verification metric distinguishing structural erasure from behavioral suppression, a distinction existing metrics cannot make. Across multiple model families and hazard benchmarks, MANSU is the first method to jointly satisfy all four properties with margin on each (meaningful forgetting, retain preservation, non-positive PTQ gap, and structural erasure), while gradient-based baselines recover up to +0.05 accuracy under compression.

Lexsi Lexsi Labs
·
May 13 2

KUDA: Knowledge Unlearning by Deviating Representation for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) acquire a large amount of knowledge through pre-training on vast and diverse corpora. While this endows LLMs with strong capabilities in generation and reasoning, it amplifies risks associated with sensitive, copyrighted, or harmful content in training data. LLM unlearning, which aims to remove specific knowledge encoded within models, is a promising technique to reduce these risks. However, existing LLM unlearning methods often force LLMs to generate random or incoherent answers due to their inability to alter the encoded knowledge precisely. To achieve effective unlearning at the knowledge level of LLMs, we propose Knowledge Unlearning by Deviating representAtion (KUDA). We first utilize causal tracing to locate specific layers for target knowledge storage. We then design a new unlearning objective that induces the model's representations to deviate from its original position in the phase of knowledge removal, thus disrupting the ability to associate with the target knowledge. To resolve the optimization conflicts between forgetting and retention, we employ a relaxation null-space projection mechanism to mitigate the disruption to the representation space of retaining knowledge. Extensive experiments on representative benchmarks, WMDP and MUSE, demonstrate that KUDA outperforms most existing baselines by effectively balancing knowledge removal and model utility retention.

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 23

Fair-GPTQ: Bias-Aware Quantization for Large Language Models

High memory demands of generative language models have drawn attention to quantization, which reduces computational cost, memory usage, and latency by mapping model weights to lower-precision integers. Approaches such as GPTQ effectively minimize input-weight product errors during quantization; however, recent empirical studies show that they can increase biased outputs and degrade performance on fairness benchmarks, and it remains unclear which specific weights cause this issue. In this work, we draw new links between quantization and model fairness by adding explicit group-fairness constraints to the quantization objective and introduce Fair-GPTQ, the first quantization method explicitly designed to reduce unfairness in large language models. The added constraints guide the learning of the rounding operation toward less-biased text generation for protected groups. Specifically, we focus on stereotype generation involving occupational bias and discriminatory language spanning gender, race, and religion. Fair-GPTQ has minimal impact on performance, preserving at least 90% of baseline accuracy on zero-shot benchmarks, reduces unfairness relative to a half-precision model, and retains the memory and speed benefits of 4-bit quantization. We also compare the performance of Fair-GPTQ with existing debiasing methods and find that it achieves performance on par with the iterative null-space projection debiasing approach on racial-stereotype benchmarks. Overall, the results validate our theoretical solution to the quantization problem with a group-bias term, highlight its applicability for reducing group bias at quantization time in generative models, and demonstrate that our approach can further be used to analyze channel- and weight-level contributions to fairness during quantization.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 18, 2025

Brainstacks: Cross-Domain Cognitive Capabilities via Frozen MoE-LoRA Stacks for Continual LLM Learning

We present Brainstacks, a modular architecture for continual multi-domain fine-tuning of large language models that packages domain expertise as frozen adapter stacks composing additively on a shared frozen base at inference. Five interlocking components: (1) MoE-LoRA with Shazeer-style noisy top-2 routing across all seven transformer projections under QLoRA 4-bit quantization with rsLoRA scaling; (2) an inner loop performing residual boosting by freezing trained stacks and adding new ones; (3) an outer loop training sequential domain-specific stacks with curriculum-ordered dependencies; (4) null-space projection via randomized SVD constraining new stacks to subspaces orthogonal to prior directions, achieving zero forgetting in isolation; (5) an outcome-based sigmoid meta-router trained on empirically discovered domain-combination targets that selectively weights stacks, enabling cross-domain composition. Two boundary experiments: (6) PSN pretraining on a randomly initialized model; (7) per-domain RL (DPO/GRPO) validating compatibility with post-SFT alignment. Validated on TinyLlama-1.1B (4 domains, 9 stacks) and Gemma 3 12B IT (5 domains, 10 stacks), MoE-LoRA achieves 2.5x faster convergence than parameter-matched single LoRA, residual boosting breaks through the single-stack ceiling, and the routed system recovers generation quality destroyed by ungated stack accumulation. The central finding: the outcome-based router discovers that domain stacks encode transferable cognitive primitives (instruction-following clarity, numerical reasoning, procedural logic, chain-of-thought structure) rather than domain-specific knowledge, with medical prompts routing to chat+math stacks in 97% of cases despite zero medical data in those stacks.

BrainsBuild BrainsBuild
·
Apr 1 4

Demystifying Catastrophic Forgetting in Two-Stage Incremental Object Detector

Catastrophic forgetting is a critical chanllenge for incremental object detection (IOD). Most existing methods treat the detector monolithically, relying on instance replay or knowledge distillation without analyzing component-specific forgetting. Through dissection of Faster R-CNN, we reveal a key insight: Catastrophic forgetting is predominantly localized to the RoI Head classifier, while regressors retain robustness across incremental stages. This finding challenges conventional assumptions, motivating us to develop a framework termed NSGP-RePRE. Regional Prototype Replay (RePRE) mitigates classifier forgetting via replay of two types of prototypes: coarse prototypes represent class-wise semantic centers of RoI features, while fine-grained prototypes model intra-class variations. Null Space Gradient Projection (NSGP) is further introduced to eliminate prototype-feature misalignment by updating the feature extractor in directions orthogonal to subspace of old inputs via gradient projection, aligning RePRE with incremental learning dynamics. Our simple yet effective design allows NSGP-RePRE to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the Pascal VOC and MS COCO datasets under various settings. Our work not only advances IOD methodology but also provide pivotal insights for catastrophic forgetting mitigation in IOD. Code is available at https://github.com/fanrena/NSGP-RePRE{https://github.com/fanrena/NSGP-RePRE} .

  • 7 authors
·
Feb 8, 2025

MoNo: Multiscale Optimal Transport Neural Operator for Solving PDEs on General Geometries

Transformer-based neural operators have achieved substantial progress in solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) by projecting spatial observations into compact latent tokens and learning physical interactions in latent spaces. However, we reveal that existing learnable projection mechanisms cannot ensure stable and balanced assignments from observation points to latent tokens, causing some latent tokens to be over-assigned while others remain underutilized. This limitation further restricts the design of hierarchical architectures, as assignment imbalance is continuously inherited and amplified across latent spaces, eventually causing severe token collapse in deeper spaces. To address these issues, we propose MoNo (Multiscale Optimal Transport Neural Operator), a progressive multiscale neural operator that efficiently solves PDEs on general geometries through stable latent-space construction. At its core is CoTAP (Cross-scale Optimal Transport Assignment and Projection), a novel latent-space construction method that formulates cross-space assignment between adjacent spaces as an entropy-regularized optimal transport problem, thereby constructing balanced bidirectional projections and stable latent spaces. CoTAP also ensures stable information transfer across multiple latent spaces, further enabling multiscale architectures on general geometries, which in turn support more efficient learning of long-range physical interactions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MoNo outperforms existing state-of-the-art neural operators in both prediction performance and computational efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/ZijiangY1116/MoNo.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 9

Selection Function of Clusters in Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data from Cross-Matching with South Pole Telescope Detections

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

  • 55 authors
·
Feb 18, 2025

DreamSat: Towards a General 3D Model for Novel View Synthesis of Space Objects

Novel view synthesis (NVS) enables to generate new images of a scene or convert a set of 2D images into a comprehensive 3D model. In the context of Space Domain Awareness, since space is becoming increasingly congested, NVS can accurately map space objects and debris, improving the safety and efficiency of space operations. Similarly, in Rendezvous and Proximity Operations missions, 3D models can provide details about a target object's shape, size, and orientation, allowing for better planning and prediction of the target's behavior. In this work, we explore the generalization abilities of these reconstruction techniques, aiming to avoid the necessity of retraining for each new scene, by presenting a novel approach to 3D spacecraft reconstruction from single-view images, DreamSat, by fine-tuning the Zero123 XL, a state-of-the-art single-view reconstruction model, on a high-quality dataset of 190 high-quality spacecraft models and integrating it into the DreamGaussian framework. We demonstrate consistent improvements in reconstruction quality across multiple metrics, including Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) score (+0.33%), Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) (+2.53%), Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) (+2.38%), and Learned Perceptual Image Patch Similarity (LPIPS) (+0.16%) on a test set of 30 previously unseen spacecraft images. Our method addresses the lack of domain-specific 3D reconstruction tools in the space industry by leveraging state-of-the-art diffusion models and 3D Gaussian splatting techniques. This approach maintains the efficiency of the DreamGaussian framework while enhancing the accuracy and detail of spacecraft reconstructions. The code for this work can be accessed on GitHub (https://github.com/ARCLab-MIT/space-nvs).

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024

Solar System Experiments in the Search for Dark Energy and Dark Matter

We reassess the realistic discovery reach of Solar-System experiments for dark energy (DE) and dark matter (DM), making explicit the bridge from cosmology-level linear responses to local, screened residuals. In scalar-tensor frameworks with a universal conformal coupling A(phi) and chameleon/Vainshtein screening, we map cosmological responses {mu(z,k),Sigma(z,k)} inferred by DESI and Euclid to thin-shell or Vainshtein residuals in deep Solar potentials Phi_N. We emphasize a two-branch strategy. In a detection-first branch, a verified local anomaly -- an Einstein equivalence principle (EEP) violation, a Shapiro-delay signal with |gamma-1|simfewtimes 10^{-6}, an AU-scale Yukawa tail, or a ultralight DM (ULDM) line in clocks/atom interferometers in space (AIS) -- triggers a joint refit of cosmology and Solar-System data under a common microphysical parameterization {V(phi),A(phi)}. In a guardrail branch, Solar-System tests enforce constraints (EEP; PPN parameters gamma,beta; and dot G/G) and close unscreened or weakly screened corners indicated by cosmology. We forecast, per conjunction, |gamma-1|lesssim (2-5)times 10^{-6} (Ka-/X-band or optical Shapiro), eta_{EEP}sim (1--10)times 10^{-17} (drag-free AIS), |dot G/G|sim(3-5)times10^{-15},yr^{-1} (sub-mm-class LLR), a uniform ~2x tightening of AU-scale Yukawa/DM-density bounds, and (3-10)times improved ULDM-coupling reach from clocks. For a conformal benchmark, mu_{ lin,0}=0.10 implies chisimeq mu_{lin,0/2} and a Sun thin shell Delta R/Rlesssim (1/3chi)|gamma-1|/2=2.4times 10^{-3} at |gamma-1|=5times 10^{-6}; Vainshtein screening at 1 AU yields |gamma-1|lesssim 10^{-11}, naturally below near-term reach. We recommend a cost-effective guardrail+discovery portfolio with explicit triggers for escalation to dedicated missions.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 6, 2025

Model-agnostic search for the quasinormal modes of gravitational wave echoes

Post-merger gravitational wave echoes provide a unique opportunity to probe the near-horizon structure of astrophysical black holes, that may be modified due to non-perturbative quantum gravity phenomena. However, since the waveform is subject to large theoretical uncertainties, it is necessary to develop model-agnostic search methods for detecting echoes from observational data. A promising strategy is to identify the characteristic quasinormal modes (QNMs) associated with echoes, {\it in frequency space}, which complements existing searches of quasiperiodic pulses in time. In this study, we build upon our previous work targeting these modes by incorporating relative phase information to optimize the Bayesian search algorithm. Using a new phase-marginalized likelihood, the performance can be significantly improved for well-resolved QNMs. This enables an efficient model-agnostic search for QNMs of different shapes by using a simple search template. To demonstrate the robustness of the search algorithm, we construct four complementary benchmarks for the echo waveform that span a diverse range of different theoretical possibilities for the near-horizon structure. We then validate our Bayesian search algorithms by injecting the benchmark models into different realizations of Gaussian noise. Using two types of phase-marginalized likelihoods, we find that the search algorithm can efficiently detect the corresponding QNMs. Therefore, our search strategy provides a concrete Bayesian and model-agnostic approach to "quantum black hole seismology".

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 2, 2023

Vietoris--Rips Shadow for Euclidean Graph Reconstruction

The shadow of an abstract simplicial complex K with vertices in R^N is a subset of R^N defined as the union of the convex hulls of simplices of K. The Vietoris--Rips complex of a metric space (S,d) at scale β is an abstract simplicial complex whose each k-simplex corresponds to (k+1) points of S within diameter β. In case Ssubsetmathbb R^2 and d(a,b)=|a-b| the standard Euclidean metric, the natural shadow projection of the Vietoris--Rips complex is already proved by Chambers et al. to induce isomorphisms on π_0 and π_1. We extend the result beyond the standard Euclidean distance on Ssubsetmathbb R^N to a family of path-based metrics, d^varepsilon_{S}. From the pairwise Euclidean distances of points in S, we introduce a family (parametrized by varepsilon) of path-based Vietoris--Rips complexes R^varepsilon_β(S) for a scale β>0. If SsubsetR^2 is Hausdorff-close to a planar Euclidean graph G, we provide quantitative bounds on scales β,varepsilon for the shadow projection map of the Vietoris--Rips complex of (S,d^varepsilon_S) at scale β to induce π_1-isomorphism. This paper first studies the homotopy-type recovery of Gsubsetmathbb R^N using the abstract Vietoris--Rips complex of a Hausdorff-close sample S under the d^varepsilon_S metric. Then, our result on the π_1-isomorphism induced by the shadow projection lends itself to providing also a geometrically close embedding for the reconstruction. Based on the length of the shortest loop and large-scale distortion of the embedding of G, we quantify the choice of a suitable sample density varepsilon and a scale β at which the shadow of R^varepsilon_β(S) is homotopy-equivalent and Hausdorff-close to G.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 2, 2025

Flat-sky Angular Power Spectra Revisited

We revisit the flat-sky approximation for evaluating the angular power spectra of projected random fields by retaining information about the correlations along the line of sight. With broad, overlapping radial window functions, these line-of-sight correlations are suppressed and are ignored in the Limber approximation. However, retaining the correlations is important for narrow window functions or unequal-time spectra but introduces significant computational difficulties due to the highly oscillatory nature of the integrands involved. We deal with the integral over line-of-sight wave-modes in the flat-sky approximation analytically, using the FFTlog expansion of the 3D power spectrum. This results in an efficient computational method, which is a substantial improvement compared to any full-sky approaches. We apply our results to galaxy clustering (with and without redshift-space distortions), CMB lensing and galaxy lensing observables. For clustering, we find excellent agreement with the full-sky results on large (percent-level agreement) and intermediate or small (subpercent agreement) scales, dramatically out-performing the Limber approximation for both wide and narrow window functions, and in equal- and unequal-time cases. In the case of lensing, we show on the full sky that the angular power spectrum of the convergence can be very well approximated by projecting the 3D Laplacian (rather than the correct angular Laplacian) of the gravitational potential, even on large scales. Combining this approximation with our flat-sky techniques provides an efficient and accurate evaluation of the CMB lensing angular power spectrum on all scales.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 25, 2023

Null-text Inversion for Editing Real Images using Guided Diffusion Models

Recent text-guided diffusion models provide powerful image generation capabilities. Currently, a massive effort is given to enable the modification of these images using text only as means to offer intuitive and versatile editing. To edit a real image using these state-of-the-art tools, one must first invert the image with a meaningful text prompt into the pretrained model's domain. In this paper, we introduce an accurate inversion technique and thus facilitate an intuitive text-based modification of the image. Our proposed inversion consists of two novel key components: (i) Pivotal inversion for diffusion models. While current methods aim at mapping random noise samples to a single input image, we use a single pivotal noise vector for each timestamp and optimize around it. We demonstrate that a direct inversion is inadequate on its own, but does provide a good anchor for our optimization. (ii) NULL-text optimization, where we only modify the unconditional textual embedding that is used for classifier-free guidance, rather than the input text embedding. This allows for keeping both the model weights and the conditional embedding intact and hence enables applying prompt-based editing while avoiding the cumbersome tuning of the model's weights. Our Null-text inversion, based on the publicly available Stable Diffusion model, is extensively evaluated on a variety of images and prompt editing, showing high-fidelity editing of real images.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 17, 2022

Second Season QUIET Observations: Measurements of the CMB Polarization Power Spectrum at 95 GHz

The Q/U Imaging ExperimenT (QUIET) has observed the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 43 and 95GHz. The 43-GHz results have been published in QUIET Collaboration et al. (2011), and here we report the measurement of CMB polarization power spectra using the 95-GHz data. This data set comprises 5337 hours of observations recorded by an array of 84 polarized coherent receivers with a total array sensitivity of 87 uK sqrt(s). Four low-foreground fields were observed, covering a total of ~1000 square degrees with an effective angular resolution of 12.8', allowing for constraints on primordial gravitational waves and high-signal-to-noise measurements of the E-modes across three acoustic peaks. The data reduction was performed using two independent analysis pipelines, one based on a pseudo-Cl (PCL) cross-correlation approach, and the other on a maximum-likelihood (ML) approach. All data selection criteria and filters were modified until a predefined set of null tests had been satisfied before inspecting any non-null power spectrum. The results derived by the two pipelines are in good agreement. We characterize the EE, EB and BB power spectra between l=25 and 975 and find that the EE spectrum is consistent with LCDM, while the BB power spectrum is consistent with zero. Based on these measurements, we constrain the tensor-to-scalar ratio to r=1.1+0.9-0.8 (r<2.8 at 95% C.L.) as derived by the ML pipeline, and r=1.2+0.9-0.8 (r<2.7 at 95% C.L.) as derived by the PCL pipeline. In one of the fields, we find a correlation with the dust component of the Planck Sky Model, though the corresponding excess power is small compared to statistical errors. Finally, we derive limits on all known systematic errors, and demonstrate that these correspond to a tensor-to-scalar ratio smaller than r=0.01, the lowest level yet reported in the literature.

  • 51 authors
·
Jan 29, 2013

Effectively Modeling Time Series with Simple Discrete State Spaces

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 16, 2023

Solving High-Dimensional PDEs with Latent Spectral Models

Deep models have achieved impressive progress in solving partial differential equations (PDEs). A burgeoning paradigm is learning neural operators to approximate the input-output mappings of PDEs. While previous deep models have explored the multiscale architectures and various operator designs, they are limited to learning the operators as a whole in the coordinate space. In real physical science problems, PDEs are complex coupled equations with numerical solvers relying on discretization into high-dimensional coordinate space, which cannot be precisely approximated by a single operator nor efficiently learned due to the curse of dimensionality. We present Latent Spectral Models (LSM) toward an efficient and precise solver for high-dimensional PDEs. Going beyond the coordinate space, LSM enables an attention-based hierarchical projection network to reduce the high-dimensional data into a compact latent space in linear time. Inspired by classical spectral methods in numerical analysis, we design a neural spectral block to solve PDEs in the latent space that approximates complex input-output mappings via learning multiple basis operators, enjoying nice theoretical guarantees for convergence and approximation. Experimentally, LSM achieves consistent state-of-the-art and yields a relative gain of 11.5% averaged on seven benchmarks covering both solid and fluid physics. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Latent-Spectral-Models.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 29, 2023

Hadronic light-by-light contribution to (g-2)_μ from lattice QCD with SU(3) flavor symmetry

We perform a lattice QCD calculation of the hadronic light-by-light contribution to (g-2)_μ at the SU(3) flavor-symmetric point m_π=m_Ksimeq 420,MeV. The representation used is based on coordinate-space perturbation theory, with all QED elements of the relevant Feynman diagrams implemented in continuum, infinite Euclidean space. As a consequence, the effect of using finite lattices to evaluate the QCD four-point function of the electromagnetic current is exponentially suppressed. Thanks to the SU(3)-flavor symmetry, only two topologies of diagrams contribute, the fully connected and the leading disconnected. We show the equivalence in the continuum limit of two methods of computing the connected contribution, and introduce a sparse-grid technique for computing the disconnected contribution. Thanks to our previous calculation of the pion transition form factor, we are able to correct for the residual finite-size effects and extend the tail of the integrand. We test our understanding of finite-size effects by using gauge ensembles differing only by their volume. After a continuum extrapolation based on four lattice spacings, we obtain a_μ^{rm hlbl} = (65.4pm 4.9 pm 6.6)times 10^{-11}, where the first error results from the uncertainties on the individual gauge ensembles and the second is the systematic error of the continuum extrapolation. Finally, we estimate how this value will change as the light-quark masses are lowered to their physical values.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 12, 2020

A Constraint on Primordial B-Modes from the First Flight of the SPIDER Balloon-Borne Telescope

We present the first linear polarization measurements from the 2015 long-duration balloon flight of SPIDER, an experiment designed to map the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) on degree angular scales. Results from these measurements include maps and angular power spectra from observations of 4.8% of the sky at 95 and 150 GHz, along with the results of internal consistency tests on these data. While the polarized CMB anisotropy from primordial density perturbations is the dominant signal in this region of sky, Galactic dust emission is also detected with high significance; Galactic synchrotron emission is found to be negligible in the SPIDER bands. We employ two independent foreground-removal techniques in order to explore the sensitivity of the cosmological result to the assumptions made by each. The primary method uses a dust template derived from Planck data to subtract the Galactic dust signal. A second approach, employing a joint analysis of SPIDER and Planck data in the harmonic domain, assumes a modified-blackbody model for the spectral energy distribution of the dust with no constraint on its spatial morphology. Using a likelihood that jointly samples the template amplitude and r parameter space, we derive 95% upper limits on the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio from Feldman-Cousins and Bayesian constructions, finding r<0.11 and r<0.19, respectively. Roughly half the uncertainty in r derives from noise associated with the template subtraction. New data at 280 GHz from SPIDER's second flight will complement the Planck polarization maps, providing powerful measurements of the polarized Galactic dust emission.

  • 71 authors
·
Mar 23, 2021

An improved source-subtracted and destriped 408 MHz all-sky map

The all-sky 408 MHz map of Haslam et al. is one the most important total-power radio surveys. It has been widely used to study diffuse synchrotron radiation from our Galaxy and as a template to remove foregrounds in cosmic microwave background data. However, there are a number of issues associated with it that must be dealt with, including large-scale striations and contamination from extragalactic radio sources. We have re-evaluated and re-processed the rawest data available to produce a new and improved 408 MHz all-sky map. We first quantify the positional accuracy (approx 7 arcmin) and effective beam (56.0pm1.0 arcmin) of the four individual surveys from which it was assembled. Large-scale striations associated with 1/f noise in the scan direction are reduced to a level ll 1 K using a Fourier-based filtering technique. The most important improvement results from the removal of extragalactic sources. We have used an iterative combination of two techniques -- two-dimensional Gaussian fitting and minimum curvature spline surface inpainting -- to remove the brightest sources (gtrsim 2 Jy), which provides a significant improvement over previous versions of the map. We quantify the impact with power spectra and a template fitting analysis of foregrounds to the WMAP data. The new map is publicly available and is recommended as the template of choice for large-scale diffuse Galactic synchrotron emission. We also provide a higher resolution map with small-scale fluctuations added, assuming a power-law angular power spectrum down to the pixel scale (1.7 arcmin). This should prove useful in simulations used for studying the feasibility of detecting HI fluctuations from the Epoch of Reionization.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 9, 2015

Sphere Retraction Normalizations

Residual connections are the de facto mechanism for training deep neural networks stably. Geodesic Normalization (GeoNorm) recasts them on a Riemannian manifold, orthogonalizing each layer output against the current hidden state and applying the resulting update through the Riemannian exponential map. Every hidden state thus keeps a constant ell_{2}-norm, confining the residual stream to a hypersphere. The exponential map, however, is only one member of a broad family of retraction maps. We show that on the hypersphere this entire family collapses to a single scalar design choice. What distinguishes one retraction from another is only how the magnitude of an update is converted into a rotation angle within the plane spanned by the hidden state and the update. This view places Euclidean residual connections and GeoNorm in one framework. Instantiating it with the metric projection retraction and the Cayley retraction yields Proj-SpheretNorm and Cay-SpheretNorm, which are exactly norm-preserving yet require only algebraic operations. Both prove to be members of a one-parameter family of angular retractions, p-SpheretNorm, whose rotation angle saturates rather than growing without bound. The two methods above are recovered exactly at p = 1 and p = 2, while the identity map and GeoNorm arise only as limits at either end. On nanoGPT, all three methods outperform existing lightweight deep connection schemes, and the best validation loss is attained at finite p, indicating that the exponential map is not the preferred retraction for spherical residual streams but merely one end of a spectrum.

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 1

SingularTrajectory: Universal Trajectory Predictor Using Diffusion Model

There are five types of trajectory prediction tasks: deterministic, stochastic, domain adaptation, momentary observation, and few-shot. These associated tasks are defined by various factors, such as the length of input paths, data split and pre-processing methods. Interestingly, even though they commonly take sequential coordinates of observations as input and infer future paths in the same coordinates as output, designing specialized architectures for each task is still necessary. For the other task, generality issues can lead to sub-optimal performances. In this paper, we propose SingularTrajectory, a diffusion-based universal trajectory prediction framework to reduce the performance gap across the five tasks. The core of SingularTrajectory is to unify a variety of human dynamics representations on the associated tasks. To do this, we first build a Singular space to project all types of motion patterns from each task into one embedding space. We next propose an adaptive anchor working in the Singular space. Unlike traditional fixed anchor methods that sometimes yield unacceptable paths, our adaptive anchor enables correct anchors, which are put into a wrong location, based on a traversability map. Finally, we adopt a diffusion-based predictor to further enhance the prototype paths using a cascaded denoising process. Our unified framework ensures the generality across various benchmark settings such as input modality, and trajectory lengths. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that SingularTrajectory substantially outperforms existing models, highlighting its effectiveness in estimating general dynamics of human movements. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/SingularTrajectory .

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 27, 2024 1

Neural Processes Maintain Calibrated Biomass Estimates Across Spatiotemporal Gaps and Disturbance

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 10

Probing the shape of the Milky Way dark matter halo with hypervelocity stars: a new method

We propose a new method to determine the shape of the gravitational potential of the dark matter (DM) halo of the Milky Way (MW) with the galactocentric tangential velocities of a sample of hypervelocity stars (HVSs). We compute the trajectories of different samples of HVSs in a MW where the baryon distribution is axisymmetric and the DM potential either is spherical or is spheroidal or triaxial with radial-dependent axis ratios. We determine the shape of the DM potential with the distribution of the latitudinal velocity |v_{vartheta}| in axisymmetric Galactic potentials, or with the distribution of |v_{vartheta}| and of a function bar v_{varphi} of the azimuthal velocity in non-axisymmetric Galactic potentials. We recover the correct shape of the DM potential by comparing the distribution of |v_{vartheta}| and bar v_{varphi} against the corresponding distributions of mock samples of HVSs that traveled in DM halos of different shapes. We use the largest possible sample of sim 800 HVSs of 4~M_odot ejected with the Hills mechanism at a rate sim 10^{-4} yr^{-1}, currently outgoing, and located at more than 10 kpc from the Galactic center. In our ideal case of galactocentric velocities with null uncertainties and no observational limitations, our method recovers the correct shape of the DM potential with a success rate Sgtrsim 89% in axisymmetric Galactic potentials, and S > 96% in the explored non-axisymmetric cases. The unsuccessful cases yield axis ratios of the DM potential that are off by pm 0.1. The success rate decreases with decreasing sample size: for example, for a spherical DM halo, S drops from sim 98% to sim 38% when the sample size decreases from sim 800 to sim 40 HVSs. A robust determination of the shape of the DM potential thus requires the measure of the galactocentric velocity of a few hundred genuine HVSs.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 18, 2021

Symmetries and Asymptotically Flat Space

The construction of a theory of quantum gravity is an outstanding problem that can benefit from better understanding the laws of nature that are expected to hold in regimes currently inaccessible to experiment. Such fundamental laws can be found by considering the classical counterparts of a quantum theory. For example, conservation laws in a quantum theory often stem from conservation laws of the corresponding classical theory. In order to construct such laws, this thesis is concerned with the interplay between symmetries and conservation laws of classical field theories and their application to asymptotically flat spacetimes. This work begins with an explanation of symmetries in field theories with a focus on variational symmetries and their associated conservation laws. Boundary conditions for general relativity are then formulated on three-dimensional asymptotically flat spacetimes at null infinity using the method of conformal completion. Conserved quantities related to asymptotic symmetry transformations are derived and their properties are studied. This is done in a manifestly coordinate independent manner. In a separate step a coordinate system is introduced, such that the results can be compared to existing literature. Next, asymptotically flat spacetimes which contain both future as well as past null infinity are considered. Asymptotic symmetries occurring at these disjoint regions of three-dimensional asymptotically flat spacetimes are linked and the corresponding conserved quantities are matched. Finally, it is shown how asymptotic symmetries lead to the notion of distinct Minkowski spaces that can be differentiated by conserved quantities.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 16, 2020

Size and Shape Constraints of (486958) Arrokoth from Stellar Occultations

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by SOFIA with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 Aug 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 pm 0.0005 hours. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

  • 133 authors
·
Dec 31, 2019

Weighted least-squares approximation with determinantal point processes and generalized volume sampling

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 21, 2023

Light-Front Quantization and AdS/QCD: An Overview

We give an overview of the light-front holographic approach to strongly coupled QCD, whereby a confining gauge theory, quantized on the light front, is mapped to a higher-dimensional anti de Sitter (AdS) space. The framework is guided by the AdS/CFT correspondence incorporating a gravitational background asymptotic to AdS space which encodes the salient properties of QCD, such as the ultraviolet conformal limit at the AdS boundary at z to 0, as well as modifications of the geometry in the large z infrared region to describe confinement and linear Regge behavior. There are two equivalent procedures for deriving the AdS/QCD equations of motion: one can start from the Hamiltonian equation of motion in physical space time by studying the off-shell dynamics of the bound state wavefunctions as a function of the invariant mass of the constituents. To a first semiclassical approximation, where quantum loops and quark masses are not included, this leads to a light-front Hamiltonian equation which describes the bound state dynamics of light hadrons in terms of an invariant impact variable ζ which measures the separation of the partons within the hadron at equal light-front time. Alternatively, one can start from the gravity side by studying the propagation of hadronic modes in a fixed effective gravitational background. Both approaches are equivalent in the semiclassical approximation. This allows us to identify the holographic variable z in AdS space with the impact variable ζ. Light-front holography thus allows a precise mapping of transition amplitudes from AdS to physical space-time. The internal structure of hadrons is explicitly introduced and the angular momentum of the constituents plays a key role.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 5, 2011

Gimbal360: Differentiable Auto-Leveling for Canonicalized 360^circ Panoramic Image Completion

Diffusion models excel at 2D outpainting, but extending them to 360^circ panoramic completion from unposed perspective images is challenging due to the geometric and topological mismatch between perspective projections and spherical panoramas. We present Gimbal360, a principled framework that explicitly bridges perspective observations and spherical panoramas. We introduce a Canonical Viewing Space that regularizes projective geometry and provides a consistent intermediate representation between the two domains. To anchor in-the-wild inputs to this space, we propose a Differentiable Auto-Leveling module that stabilizes feature orientation without requiring camera parameters at inference. Panoramic generation also introduces a topological challenge. Standard generative architectures assume a bounded Euclidean image plane, while Equirectangular Projection (ERP) panoramas exhibit intrinsic S^1 periodicity. Euclidean operations therefore break boundary continuity. We address this mismatch by enforcing topological equivariance in the latent space to preserve seamless periodic structure. To support this formulation, we introduce Horizon360, a curated large-scale dataset of gravity-aligned panoramic environments. Extensive experiments show that explicitly standardizing geometric and topological priors enables Gimbal360 to achieve state-of-the-art performance in structurally consistent 360^circ scene completion.

Orange-Team Orange Team
·
Mar 23

A New Dataset and Performance Benchmark for Real-time Spacecraft Segmentation in Onboard Flight Computers

Spacecraft deployed in outer space are routinely subjected to various forms of damage due to exposure to hazardous environments. In addition, there are significant risks to the subsequent process of in-space repairs through human extravehicular activity or robotic manipulation, incurring substantial operational costs. Recent developments in image segmentation could enable the development of reliable and cost-effective autonomous inspection systems. While these models often require large amounts of training data to achieve satisfactory results, publicly available annotated spacecraft segmentation data are very scarce. Here, we present a new dataset of nearly 64k annotated spacecraft images that was created using real spacecraft models, superimposed on a mixture of real and synthetic backgrounds generated using NASA's TTALOS pipeline. To mimic camera distortions and noise in real-world image acquisition, we also added different types of noise and distortion to the images. Finally, we finetuned YOLOv8 and YOLOv11 segmentation models to generate performance benchmarks for the dataset under well-defined hardware and inference time constraints to mimic real-world image segmentation challenges for real-time onboard applications in space on NASA's inspector spacecraft. The resulting models, when tested under these constraints, achieved a Dice score of 0.92, Hausdorff distance of 0.69, and an inference time of about 0.5 second. The dataset and models for performance benchmark are available at https://github.com/RiceD2KLab/SWiM.

  • 9 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025

A Neural Space-Time Representation for Text-to-Image Personalization

A key aspect of text-to-image personalization methods is the manner in which the target concept is represented within the generative process. This choice greatly affects the visual fidelity, downstream editability, and disk space needed to store the learned concept. In this paper, we explore a new text-conditioning space that is dependent on both the denoising process timestep (time) and the denoising U-Net layers (space) and showcase its compelling properties. A single concept in the space-time representation is composed of hundreds of vectors, one for each combination of time and space, making this space challenging to optimize directly. Instead, we propose to implicitly represent a concept in this space by optimizing a small neural mapper that receives the current time and space parameters and outputs the matching token embedding. In doing so, the entire personalized concept is represented by the parameters of the learned mapper, resulting in a compact, yet expressive, representation. Similarly to other personalization methods, the output of our neural mapper resides in the input space of the text encoder. We observe that one can significantly improve the convergence and visual fidelity of the concept by introducing a textual bypass, where our neural mapper additionally outputs a residual that is added to the output of the text encoder. Finally, we show how one can impose an importance-based ordering over our implicit representation, providing users control over the reconstruction and editability of the learned concept using a single trained model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach over a range of concepts and prompts, showing our method's ability to generate high-quality and controllable compositions without fine-tuning any parameters of the generative model itself.

  • 4 authors
·
May 24, 2023

Kernel-, mean- and noise-marginalised Gaussian processes for exoplanet transits and H_0 inference

Using a fully Bayesian approach, Gaussian Process regression is extended to include marginalisation over the kernel choice and kernel hyperparameters. In addition, Bayesian model comparison via the evidence enables direct kernel comparison. The calculation of the joint posterior was implemented with a transdimensional sampler which simultaneously samples over the discrete kernel choice and their hyperparameters by embedding these in a higher-dimensional space, from which samples are taken using nested sampling. Kernel recovery and mean function inference were explored on synthetic data from exoplanet transit light curve simulations. Subsequently, the method was extended to marginalisation over mean functions and noise models and applied to the inference of the present-day Hubble parameter, H_0, from real measurements of the Hubble parameter as a function of redshift, derived from the cosmologically model-independent cosmic chronometer and ΛCDM-dependent baryon acoustic oscillation observations. The inferred H_0 values from the cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are H_0= 66 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, H_0= 67 pm 10, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1} and H_0= 69 pm 6, km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}, respectively. The kernel posterior of the cosmic chronometers dataset prefers a non-stationary linear kernel. Finally, the datasets are shown to be not in tension with ln R=12.17pm 0.02.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 11, 2024

Search for dark matter subhalos among unassociated Fermi-LAT sources in presence of dataset shift

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 18, 2025