Daily Papers

Closed-loop decision-making systems (e.g., lending, screening, or recidivism risk assessment) often operate under fairness and service constraints while inducing feedback effects: decisions change who appears in the future, yielding non-stationary data and potentially amplifying disparities. We study online learning of a one-dimensional threshold policy from bandit feedback under demographic parity (DP) and, optionally, service-rate constraints. The learner observes only a scalar score each round and selects a threshold; reward and constraint residuals are revealed only for the chosen threshold. We propose Optimistic Feasible Search (OFS), a simple grid-based method that maintains confidence bounds for reward and constraint residuals for each candidate threshold. At each round, OFS selects a threshold that appears feasible under confidence bounds and, among those, maximizes optimistic reward; if no threshold appears feasible, OFS selects the threshold minimizing optimistic constraint violation. This design directly targets feasible high-utility thresholds and is particularly effective for low-dimensional, interpretable policy classes where discretization is natural. We evaluate OFS on (i) a synthetic closed-loop benchmark with stable contraction dynamics and (ii) two semi-synthetic closed-loop benchmarks grounded in German Credit and COMPAS, constructed by training a score model and feeding group-dependent acceptance decisions back into population composition. Across all environments, OFS achieves higher reward with smaller cumulative constraint violation than unconstrained and primal-dual bandit baselines, and is near-oracle relative to the best feasible fixed threshold under the same sweep procedure. Experiments are reproducible and organized with double-blind-friendly relative outputs.

When audio, video, and text disagree, accuracy alone does not show whether to acquire another source or abstain. We study these choices in a controlled three-score benchmark: a policy observes two signed scores, may request the third at a cost, and can abstain. The primary reward is mechanism-specific: abstention is correct only for one designated ambiguity mechanism and is penalized under mixed corruption. Matched controls show that a threshold policy matches always-request decisions with fewer requests; its advantage over always-answer fusion depends on the reward assigned to that ambiguity. On a partially held-out synthetic split, the threshold policy reaches 0.789 +/- 0.006 targeted decision accuracy and 0.481 +/- 0.014 utility across 83 seeds. A three-score majority reference reaches 0.626 +/- 0.008 and 0.252 +/- 0.016, but uses more information. In a matched-budget test, a train-only value selector improves utility over no-query and matched-random policies at 10% and 25% budgets, while pair uncertainty has higher utility at every budget. At 50% and 63.7% budgets, the selector lowers utility despite slightly higher non-ambiguous accuracy. If all abstentions are scored incorrect, majority outranks the threshold policy in utility. At a central temporal setting, full-trace controls match the neural models while position perturbations separate them. On held-out-actor emotion clips, eight-frame fusion has opposite-signed accuracy differences for two encoder pairs, with both actor intervals containing zero; matched-request routing gains are small and uncertain. These results separate full-modality accuracy from pre-request selection value and show that selection value depends on budget and the observed-pair ranking.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

AI-generated music detectors are commonly compared using aggregate scores on benchmarks whose training overlap, generator lineage, source provenance, and audio-transformation history are only partially observable. This paper introduces ArtifactBench, a lineage-aware evaluation suite for measuring detector behavior across generator families and versions, real-music domains, collection-cohort shift, and inference coverage. The benchmark groups source recordings and their derived variants by content identity, separates calibration from final testing, records inference failures independently from classification errors, and reports source-level performance with uncertainty in addition to aggregate metrics. We evaluate multiple publicly available detectors under a version-pinned common protocol and examine how leakage control, cohort availability, threshold policy, and model-specific missingness alter measured performance and model ranking. On the 562-track common-success test intersection, ArtifactNet obtains 0.982 AUROC and 0.918 balanced accuracy, compared with 0.761/0.776 for the public Deezer detector; SpecTTTra and CLAM fall below 0.30 AUROC under this shifted cohort. These results also expose substantial generator- and real-domain shifts that aggregate scores alone conceal.

We use a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under intermittent androgen suppression (IAS) to study a threshold-based policy for therapy design. IAS is currently one of the most widely used treatments for advanced prostate cancer. Patients undergoing IAS are submitted to cycles of treatment (in the form of androgen deprivation) and off-treatment periods in an alternating manner. One of the main challenges in IAS is to optimally design a therapy scheme, i.e., to determine when to discontinue and recommence androgen suppression. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. The threshold-based policy we propose is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. Using Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA), we derive unbiased gradient estimators of this cost metric with respect to the controllable PSA threshold values based on actual data and show how these estimators can be used to adaptively adjust controllable parameters so as to improve therapy outcomes based on the cost metric defined.

Intermittent Androgen Suppression (IAS) is a treatment strategy for delaying or even preventing time to relapse of advanced prostate cancer. IAS consists of alternating cycles of therapy (in the form of androgen suppression) and off-treatment periods. The level of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in a patient's serum is frequently monitored to determine when the patient will be taken off therapy and when therapy will resume. In spite of extensive recent clinical experience with IAS, the design of an ideal protocol for any given patient remains one of the main challenges associated with effectively implementing this therapy. We use a threshold-based policy for optimal IAS therapy design that is parameterized by lower and upper PSA threshold values and is associated with a cost metric that combines clinically relevant measures of therapy success. We apply Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis (IPA) to a Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) model of prostate cancer evolution under IAS and derive unbiased estimators of the cost metric gradient with respect to various model and therapy parameters. These estimators are subsequently used for system analysis. By evaluating sensitivity estimates with respect to several model parameters, we identify critical parameters and demonstrate that relaxing the optimality condition in favor of increased robustness to modeling errors provides an alternative objective to therapy design for at least some patients.

Computer Use Agents (CUAs) translate natural-language instructions into Graphical User Interface (GUI) actions such as clicks, keystrokes, and scrolls by relying on a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to interpret screenshots and predict grounded tool calls. However, grounding accuracy varies dramatically across VLMs, while current CUA systems typically route every action to a single fixed model regardless of difficulty. We propose Adaptive VLM Routing (AVR), a framework that inserts a lightweight semantic routing layer between the CUA orchestrator and a pool of VLMs. For each tool call, AVR estimates action difficulty from multimodal embeddings, probes a small VLM to measure confidence, and routes the action to the cheapest model whose predicted accuracy satisfies a target reliability threshold. For warm agents with memory of prior UI interactions, retrieved context further narrows the capability gap between small and large models, allowing many actions to be handled without escalation. We formalize routing as a cost--accuracy trade-off, derive a threshold-based policy for model selection, and evaluate AVR using ScreenSpot-Pro grounding data together with the OpenClaw agent routing benchmark. Across these settings, AVR projects inference cost reductions of up to 78\% while staying within 2 percentage points of an all-large-model baseline. When combined with the Visual Confused Deputy guardrail, AVR also escalates high-risk actions directly to the strongest available model, unifying efficiency and safety within a single routing framework. Materials are also provided Model, benchmark, and code: https://github.com/vllm-project/semantic-router.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

RLVR has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, existing methods typically parameterize temporal progression in the Markov Decision Process by token-by-token generation, despite the highly non-uniform information flow along autoregressive trajectories. In this paper, we propose InfoPPO, which reparameterizes temporal progression using information density rather than raw token count. This reparameterization induces a common state-dependent structure for both temporal credit propagation and policy updates. InfoPPO restores the effectiveness of non-trivial discounting in long-horizon reasoning, retaining effective-horizon contraction while avoiding excessive attenuation of terminal supervision over long token sequences. Moreover, the information-time policy-improvement analysis naturally leads to a state-dependent update constraint, which we implement through adaptive clipping. By adapting the clipping threshold at each token position to the information density of its corresponding state, this mechanism enables more targeted policy updates while preserving proximal control. Theoretically, we extend performance-difference and policy-improvement analyses to the information-time MDP, deriving a policy-improvement lower bound when policy changes are regulated by information density. We further connect the general information-time analysis to practical LLM policy optimization by relating state-wise information density to local policy movement, while also providing theoretical grounding for the adaptive update mechanism. Experiments on Qwen3 models demonstrate consistent gains over competitive baselines across five challenging competition-style mathematical reasoning benchmarks. InfoPPO also maintains stable accuracy and response length across non-trivial discount settings under which token-time PPO deteriorates.

While Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has advanced reasoning in Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), prevailing frameworks suffer from a foundational methodological flaw: by distributing identical advantages across all generated tokens, these methods inherently dilute the learning signals essential for optimizing the critical, visually-grounded steps of multimodal reasoning. To bridge this gap, we formulate Token Visual Dependency, quantifying the causal information gain of visual inputs via the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between visual-conditioned and text-only predictive distributions. Revealing that this dependency is highly sparse and semantically pivotal, we introduce Perception-Grounded Policy Optimization (PGPO), which is a novel fine-grained credit assignment framework that dynamically reshapes advantages at the token level. Through a threshold-gated, mass-conserving mechanism, PGPO actively amplifies learning signals for visually-dependent tokens while suppressing gradient noise from linguistic priors. Extensive experiments based on the Qwen2.5-VL series across seven challenging multimodal reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that PGPO boosts models by 18.7% on average. Both theoretical and empirical analyses confirm that PGPO effectively reduces gradient variance, prevents training collapse, and acts as a potent regularizer for robust, perception-grounded multimodal reasoning. Code will be released on https://github.com/Yzk1114/PGPO.

As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone. Existing CBRN evaluations differ in non-expert definitions, threat scope, baselines, scoring rubrics, and decision rules, making results difficult to compare across studies. We introduce a Threshold Exceedance Criteria (TEC) framework that decomposes an uplift study into independently executable components: determining non-expert participant eligibility, defining the CBRN threat scope for the study, and statistically estimating material uplift. We then operationalize the TEC framework in a large-scale empirical study using a design that determines two forms of uplift: generative (where a model assists plan creation from scratch) and revisionist (where a model assists refinement of an existing plan). The study produced attack plans across the CBRN domains, which we evaluated through subject-matter-expert review to estimate generative and revisionist uplift. Applying the framework, our empirical study revealed domain heterogeneity: under this controlled pre-release evaluation, model-assisted plans sometimes received expert-equivalent instructional ratings, but confirmed material uplift was limited to the radiological domain. These findings informed mitigation and deployment-governance decisions rather than characterizing deployed model behavior. We conclude with methodological lessons for future CBRN uplift evaluations, emphasizing prespecified criteria, explicit baselines, separation of generative and revisionist estimates, and careful distinction between preliminary screening signals and confirmed risk determinations.

Aligning large visual generative models with human feedback is often performed through pairwise preference optimization. While such approaches are conceptually simple, they fundamentally rely on annotated pairs, limiting scalability in settings where feedback is collected as independent scalar ratings. In this work, we revisit the KL-regularized alignment objective and show that the optimal policy implicitly compares each sample's reward to an instance-specific baseline that is generally intractable. We propose a threshold-guided alignment framework that replaces this oracle baseline with a data-driven global threshold estimated from empirical score statistics. This formulation turns alignment into a binary decision task on unpaired data, enabling effective optimization directly from scalar feedback. We also incorporate a confidence weighting term to emphasize samples whose scores deviate strongly from the threshold, improving sample efficiency. Experiments across both diffusion and masked generative paradigms, spanning three test sets and five reward models, show that our method consistently improves preference alignment over previous methods. These results position our threshold-guided framework as a simple yet principled alternative for aligning visual generative models without paired comparisons.

The study of provable adversarial robustness for deep neural networks (DNNs) has mainly focused on static supervised learning tasks such as image classification. However, DNNs have been used extensively in real-world adaptive tasks such as reinforcement learning (RL), making such systems vulnerable to adversarial attacks as well. Prior works in provable robustness in RL seek to certify the behaviour of the victim policy at every time-step against a non-adaptive adversary using methods developed for the static setting. But in the real world, an RL adversary can infer the defense strategy used by the victim agent by observing the states, actions, etc., from previous time-steps and adapt itself to produce stronger attacks in future steps. We present an efficient procedure, designed specifically to defend against an adaptive RL adversary, that can directly certify the total reward without requiring the policy to be robust at each time-step. Our main theoretical contribution is to prove an adaptive version of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma -- a key lemma for smoothing-based certificates -- where the adversarial perturbation at a particular time can be a stochastic function of current and previous observations and states as well as previous actions. Building on this result, we propose policy smoothing where the agent adds a Gaussian noise to its observation at each time-step before passing it through the policy function. Our robustness certificates guarantee that the final total reward obtained by policy smoothing remains above a certain threshold, even though the actions at intermediate time-steps may change under the attack. Our experiments on various environments like Cartpole, Pong, Freeway and Mountain Car show that our method can yield meaningful robustness guarantees in practice.

Large language models trained with reinforcement learning (RL) for mathematical reasoning face a fundamental challenge: on problems the model cannot solve at all - "cliff" prompts - the RL gradient vanishes entirely, preventing any learning signal from reaching these failure modes. We introduce Hybrid Distillation Policy Optimization (HDPO), which augments standard RL with privileged self-distillation targeting cliff prompts. On each training step, HDPO identifies prompts where all rollouts fail, generates privileged rollouts by providing the model with ground-truth information, filters for correct solutions, and distills the teacher's token-level distribution into the student. Because teacher and student share the same weights - differing only in their input - the realizability gap is provably bounded, unlike cross-model distillation. We prove that R=1 filtered privileged generation recovers the optimal KL-regularized RL policy in the hard-threshold limit. Experiments on OpenMathInstruct-2 with Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct show that HDPO consistently improves coverage metrics (pass@4 by +0.8-1.1%, pass@8 by +0.4-1.7%) while maintaining greedy accuracy, with the distillation weight lambda providing direct control over the exploration-exploitation tradeoff.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

Stepwise group-based RL is an attractive way to train long-horizon LLM agents without a learned critic: it reuses multiple sampled rollouts to estimate local advantages. Its weakness is less visible but more fundamental: every group-relative estimator assumes that the steps it compares are equivalent for credit assignment. We show that current agentic variants violate this assumption through a state-action credit mismatch. The observation-hash partition is overly fine on the state side, creating singleton groups with zero step-level signal, while a single within-group mean is too coarse on the action side, mixing state-value estimation with action-specific credit. We introduce BiPACE (Bisimulation-Guided Policy Optimization with Action Counterfactual Estimation), a drop-in advantage estimator that fixes both sides without adding a critic, auxiliary loss, or extra rollouts. BiGPO clusters steps by cosine distance in the actor's own hidden-state geometry, an empirical policy-induced proxy for bisimulation that substantially lowers the singleton rate left by observation hashing. PACE then recenters returns within each behavioral cluster using action-conditioned peer baselines; its Q-style instance estimates a local Q(s,a)-V(s) nonparametrically. On ALFWorld/Qwen2.5-7B, BiPACE_Q raises overall validation success from GiGPO's 90.8 to 97.1pm0.9 over three seeds, and crosses the 95% threshold on every seed, which GiGPO never does within the same budget. On Qwen2.5-1.5B it reaches 93.5pm1.2 versus GiGPO's 86.7, and on WebShop and TextCraft it improves over GRPO and GiGPO at both model scales. The measured BiPACE-specific overhead is 11.3% of a single training-step wall time. Yet it changes the estimator's comparison unit from surface identity to approximate behavioral equivalence plus action-side counterfactuals. The code is available at https://github.com/TianxiangZhao/BiPACE.

On-policy self-distillation (OPSD) trains a student on its own generated responses using feedback from the same model conditioned on privileged information. On mathematical reasoning, the original OPSD study finds that stylistic tokens can dominate the training signal over math-related tokens, and that pointwise clipping of the forward KL objective stabilizes training. Pointwise clipping caps each vocabulary-wise forward KL term at a fixed threshold before summing over the vocabulary. Follow-up studies have adopted this clipping, but its effect on training has not been directly examined. In matched training runs differing only in whether clipping is applied, we observe that clipped runs produce substantially more repetitions that persist to the end of the response than their unclipped counterparts. We trace this failure to the clipped objective. We prove that the clipped objective can fail to correct the student toward the teacher and can instead push clipped and unclipped token probabilities away from its teacher. Our training runs agree with this analysis: inside repetitions, the clipped student places less probability than its teacher on leaving the repetition, and more on continuing it, whereas the unclipped runs stay close to their teachers.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at factual recall yet still propagate stale or incorrect knowledge. In-context knowledge editing offers a gradient-free remedy suitable for black-box APIs, but current editors rely on static demonstration sets chosen by surface-level similarity, leading to two persistent obstacles: (i) a quantity-quality trade-off, and (ii) lack of adaptivity to task difficulty. We address these issues by dynamically selecting supporting demonstrations according to their utility for the edit. We propose Dynamic Retriever for In-Context Knowledge Editing (DR-IKE), a lightweight framework that (1) trains a BERT retriever with REINFORCE to rank demonstrations by editing reward, and (2) employs a learnable threshold to prune low-value examples, shortening the prompt when the edit is easy and expanding it when the task is hard. DR-IKE performs editing without modifying model weights, relying solely on forward passes for compatibility with black-box LLMs. On the COUNTERFACT benchmark, it improves edit success by up to 17.1%, reduces latency by 41.6%, and preserves accuracy on unrelated queries, demonstrating scalable and adaptive knowledge editing. The code is available at https://github.com/mwnafee/DR-IKE .

The massive overactuation in the human musculoskeletal system makes it challenging to train musculoskeletal models to generate human-like motion via reinforcement learning, primarily because exploration in the resulting high-dimensional and redundant action space is extremely inefficient. To address this problem, we propose the λ-hold controller, inspired by the equilibrium-point (EP) hypothesis, which has been widely supported by extensive evidence from human motor control studies. The policy's control variable is the per-muscle EP threshold length λ, from which a stretch-reflex recruitment law computes the muscle excitations automatically. Holding each λ over an interval of the gait phase also sharply reduces the frequency at which the policy must be queried. Consequently, the controller, to our knowledge for the first time, enables a muscle-actuated skeletal model to learn human-like sprinting using only a minimal reward within an hour of training. The efficient exploration through the proposed λ-hold controller is not merely an engineering trick but an approach grounded in physiology, bringing together the EP hypothesis, intermittent control, and optimal feedback control. Beyond encapsulating human-like behavior in predictive simulation, this achievement contributes to developing a learnable model of the human motor controller.

We present FORGE, a method for sim-to-real transfer of force-aware manipulation policies in the presence of significant pose uncertainty. During simulation-based policy learning, FORGE combines a force threshold mechanism with a dynamics randomization scheme to enable robust transfer of the learned policies to the real robot. At deployment, FORGE policies, conditioned on a maximum allowable force, adaptively perform contact-rich tasks while avoiding aggressive and unsafe behaviour, regardless of the controller gains. Additionally, FORGE policies predict task success, enabling efficient termination and autonomous tuning of the force threshold. We show that FORGE can be used to learn a variety of robust contact-rich policies, including the forceful insertion of snap-fit connectors. We further demonstrate the multistage assembly of a planetary gear system, which requires success across three assembly tasks: nut threading, insertion, and gear meshing. Project website can be accessed at https://noseworm.github.io/forge/.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) policies are typically evaluated as if the user had finished typing or speaking before the robot begins acting. In real deployment, however, users take several seconds to enter a request, leaving the policy idle for a substantial fraction of the interaction. We introduce Premover, a lightweight module that converts this idle window into useful precomputation. Premover keeps the VLA backbone frozen and attaches two small projection heads, one for image patches, one for language tokens, that map an intermediate layer of the backbone into a shared space. The resulting focus map is supervised by simulator-rendered target-object segmentation masks and applied as a per-patch reweighting of the next step's image tokens. A single scalar readiness threshold, trained jointly from streaming prefixes, decides when the policy should begin acting. On the LIBERO benchmark suite, Premover reduces mean wall-clock time from 34.0 to 29.4 seconds, a 13.6% reduction, while matching the full-prompt baseline's success rate (95.1% vs. 95.0%); naive premoving, by contrast, collapses to 66.4%.

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is increasingly deployed in safety-critical domains, yet methods for interpretable failure detection and attribution remain underdeveloped. We introduce a two-stage gradient-based framework that provides interpretable diagnostics for three critical failure analysis tasks: (1) detecting the true initial failure source (Patient-0); (2) validating why non-attacked agents may be flagged first due to domino effects; and (3) tracing how failures propagate through learned coordination pathways. Stage 1 performs interpretable per-agent failure detection via Taylor-remainder analysis of policy-gradient costs, declaring an initial Patient-0 candidate at the first threshold crossing. Stage 2 provides validation through geometric analysis of critic derivatives-first-order sensitivity and directional second-order curvature aggregated over causal windows to construct interpretable contagion graphs. This approach explains "downstream-first" detection anomalies by revealing pathways that amplify upstream deviations. Evaluated across 500 episodes in Simple Spread (3 and 5 agents) and 100 episodes in StarCraft II using MADDPG and HATRPO, our method achieves 88.2-99.4% Patient-0 detection accuracy while providing interpretable geometric evidence for detection decisions. By moving beyond black-box detection to interpretable gradient-level forensics, this framework offers practical tools for diagnosing cascading failures in safety-critical MARL systems.

Aiming at promoting the safe real-world deployment of Reinforcement Learning (RL), research on safe RL has made significant progress in recent years. However, most existing works in the literature still focus on the online setting where risky violations of the safety budget are likely to be incurred during training. Besides, in many real-world applications, the learned policy is required to respond to dynamically determined safety budgets (i.e., constraint threshold) in real time. In this paper, we target at the above real-time budget constraint problem under the offline setting, and propose Trajectory-based REal-time Budget Inference (TREBI) as a novel solution that approaches this problem from the perspective of trajectory distribution. Theoretically, we prove an error bound of the estimation on the episodic reward and cost under the offline setting and thus provide a performance guarantee for TREBI. Empirical results on a wide range of simulation tasks and a real-world large-scale advertising application demonstrate the capability of TREBI in solving real-time budget constraint problems under offline settings.

Now that AI-driven moderation has become pervasive in everyday life, we often hear claims that "the AI is biased". While this is often said jokingly, the light-hearted remark reflects a deeper concern. How can we be certain that an online post flagged as "inappropriate" was not simply the victim of a biased algorithm? This paper investigates this problem using a dual approach. First, I conduct a quantitative benchmark of a widely used toxicity model (unitary/toxic-bert) to measure performance disparity between text in African-American English (AAE) and Standard American English (SAE). The benchmark reveals a clear, systematic bias: on average, the model scores AAE text as 1.8 times more toxic and 8.8 times higher for "identity hate". Second, I introduce an interactive pedagogical tool that makes these abstract biases tangible. The tool's core mechanic, a user-controlled "sensitivity threshold," demonstrates that the biased score itself is not the only harm; instead, the more-concerning harm is the human-set, seemingly neutral policy that ultimately operationalises discrimination. This work provides both statistical evidence of disparate impact and a public-facing tool designed to foster critical AI literacy.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is now standard for knowledge-intensive LLM tasks, but most systems still treat every query as fresh, repeatedly re-retrieving long passages and re-reasoning from scratch, inflating tokens, latency, and cost. We present AutoPrunedRetriever, a graph-style RAG system that persists the minimal reasoning subgraph built for earlier questions and incrementally extends it for later ones. AutoPrunedRetriever stores entities and relations in a compact, ID-indexed codebook and represents questions, facts, and answers as edge sequences, enabling retrieval and prompting over symbolic structure instead of raw text. To keep the graph compact, we apply a two-layer consolidation policy (fast ANN/KNN alias detection plus selective k-means once a memory threshold is reached) and prune low-value structure, while prompts retain only overlap representatives and genuinely new evidence. We instantiate two front ends: AutoPrunedRetriever-REBEL, which uses REBEL as a triplet parser, and AutoPrunedRetriever-llm, which swaps in an LLM extractor. On GraphRAG-Benchmark (Medical and Novel), both variants achieve state-of-the-art complex reasoning accuracy, improving over HippoRAG2 by roughly 9--11 points, and remain competitive on contextual summarize and generation. On our harder STEM and TV benchmarks, AutoPrunedRetriever again ranks first, while using up to two orders of magnitude fewer tokens than graph-heavy baselines, making it a practical substrate for long-running sessions, evolving corpora, and multi-agent pipelines.

Reinforcement learning typically optimizes average reward. For generative policies, the average can hide an important distinction: two policies can achieve the same mean reward while having very different chances of producing a rare but high-reward rollout. This matters as sampling increases during training and inference, since its benefit depends on retaining probability mass on high-reward outcomes. We propose to optimize this coverage directly. Rather than considering only expected reward, we consider all of its upper tails: for each reward threshold, how likely is the policy to exceed it? This turns a continuous reward into a family of binary success events. We introduce Tail-Likelihood Reinforcement Learning (TailRL), which maximizes the log-probability of exceeding a randomly chosen reward threshold. Its gradient gives more weight to rare, high-reward rollouts and can be interpreted as a mixture of Best-of-(k) gradients. TailRL requires only a simple modification to the advantage function, making it compatible with existing reinforcement learning pipelines. Across object localization, maze navigation, GUI grounding, and code optimization, TailRL leverages rare high-reward training samples to avoid suboptimal solutions and yields models that benefit more from additional samples at inference time.

Regulatory institutions (from content moderation platforms to financial supervisors) observe, deliberate, and intervene only after a characteristic delay. We ask whether this processing lag alone can destabilize a multi-agent system that would otherwise remain stable, without exogenous shocks, coordination among agents, or malicious actors. We study this question in two stages. First, we analyze a delayed replicator equation in which autonomous agents receive a benefit from radical behavior but face punishment based on a lagged institutional alarm signal. We derive a closed-form critical delay threshold beyond which the unique interior equilibrium loses stability through a Hopf bifurcation, and prove via center manifold reduction that the bifurcation is supercritical (producing bounded oscillations, not explosive growth) for the entire sigmoid response-function family. Second, we embed N=240 agents on a network and equip them with reinforcement learning (tabular Q-learning), comparing three decision architectures in a factorial design: non-reactive agents (fixed policy), reactive agents (threshold heuristic without memory), and Q-learning agents (adaptive with cumulative value estimates). The results reveal a hierarchy opposite to the naive expectation that learning amplifies instability: non-reactive agents are immune to delay (0% runaway across all tested values), reactive agents collapse catastrophically (96% runaway by delay geq 8 steps), and Q-learning agents achieve partial resilience (66% runaway at delay = 20). The destabilizing ingredient is reactivity to delayed signals: agents that immediately exploit low-alarm windows trigger oscillatory feedback loops. Learning buffers this through implicit punishment memory encoded in Q-values

Deformable object manipulation poses challenges beyond task completion: successful execution must also maintain safe physical interaction, holding the object stably without slip or drop while avoiding excessive deformation. However, existing manipulation benchmarks are predominantly success-oriented and rarely evaluate whether a policy remains physically safe throughout execution. We present SoftVTBench, a safety-aware visuo-tactile benchmark for physically constrained deformable object manipulation. Built in Isaac Sim with finite-element-simulated deformable objects, SoftVTBench provides multi-view RGB observations, RGB tactile sensing with marker motion, proprioception, and language instructions, and defines four matched task suites over object type (deformable vs. rigid) and variation axis (object vs. spatial). It separately reports Goal Success and Safety Success; the latter additionally requires no drop and peak deformation below a calibrated object-specific threshold, measured from policy-hidden privileged Finite Element Method (FEM) states. We implement pi0.5-based baselines under this protocol. Experiments show that success-only evaluation substantially overstates policy performance, as a large fraction of goal-completing rollouts still violate physical safety. Furthermore, incorporating tactile sensing improves Safety Success (e.g., from 21.4% to 35.6% on object-centric deformable tasks) and reduces object deformation during execution, while maintaining comparable Goal Success. SoftVTBench provides a reproducible benchmark for studying visuo-tactile deformable manipulation under physical interaction constraints.

Traditional frameworks of political communication operate under linear, event-driven assumptions that treat voter persuasion as a static, transactional function. This paper introduces Dynamic Consent Engineering (DCE), a novel interdisciplinary paradigm that synthesizes Edward Bernays' foundational principles of public relations with the S-E-E-D (Snowball, Equilibrium, Elasticity, Dominance) framework of system dynamics. By expanding Bernaysian operational constraints into a four-dimensional resource matrix (incorporating algorithmic media infrastructure alongside manpower, mindpower, and capital), we mathematically formalize how democratic institutions construct, optimize, and sustain political dominance. We map Bernays' classic eight-step engineering workflow directly onto non-linear feedback loops, information time lags, and demographic carrying capacities. Through rigorous modeling of systemic feedback structures, we isolate the dynamic root causes of political elasticity, policy resistance plateaus, and threshold-triggered trust collapses. Finally, we establish a four-step diagnostic pipeline and validate the framework via historical reference mode verification, demonstrating that long-term political stability depends not on ephemeral rhetoric, but on the structural synchronization of policy execution and dynamic feedback calibration.

LLM cascades and model routing promise lower inference cost by sending easy queries to a small model and escalating hard ones to a large model, but most deployed routers use uncalibrated confidence scores and require per-workload threshold tuning. We present UCCI, a calibration-first router that maps token-level margin uncertainty to a per-query error probability via isotonic regression and selects the escalation threshold by constrained cost minimization. Under three explicit assumptions, threshold policies on the calibrated score are cost-optimal, and isotonic calibration achieves O(n^{-1/3}) sample complexity for expected calibration error (ECE). On a production named entity recognition workload of 75,000 queries served by 4B and 12B instruction-tuned LLMs on H100 GPUs, UCCI cuts inference cost by 31% (95% CI: [27%, 35%]) at micro-F1 = 0.91 while reducing ECE from 0.12 to 0.03. At the same operating point, UCCI beats entropy thresholding, split-conformal routing, and a FrugalGPT-style learned threshold. All cascade results use end-to-end routing on actual model outputs and measured H100 latency, not simulated routing from global accuracies or nominal API prices.

Experimental studies of generative AI in education mostly report average effects, yet field evidence shows that AI can narrow attainment gaps or widen them. We argue that the direction depends on the judgement burden, the expertise a learner must supply to screen AI output before learning from it, and that expert verification before release moves this burden from students to an accountable tutor. We test the argument in a two-cohort difference-in-differences design in which one half of a compulsory firstyear university economics course received AI-generated podcasts, FAQs and quiz-based study guides, produced with a source-grounded model and checked by a named graduate teaching assistant (170 students; 340 examination marks). Access was associated with a 2.34-mark advantage on a 50-mark component. The share of marks below the upper-second classification boundary fell by 24.7 percentage points relative to the counterfactual, effects were significant at every threshold from 23 to 31 marks and at none above, and roughly three-quarters of the average originated in the bottom quintile. The threshold estimate is robust to removing the lowest-scoring students from the pre-intervention cohort; the average effect is not. Interviews and feedback from 36 students indicate that the verification label gave students a reason to engage with AI-generated material without ending their scrutiny of it. Evaluations of AI learning resources that report only mean effects cannot detect whether the students the resources are meant to help are the ones who gain.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become standard for improving LLM reasoning. However, existing PPO-style trust-region mechanisms remain position-agnostic by enforcing uniform thresholds across all tokens independently. This pointwise treatment conflicts with autoregressive generation in two critical ways. First, uniform thresholds ignore autoregressive asymmetry. Early-stage deviations produce compounding sequence-level drift, causing static thresholds to under-regulate early divergence and excessively constrain late-stage exploration. Second, evaluating token-level divergence in isolation overlooks cumulative prefix drift, granting the same divergence allowance regardless of how far the conditioning history has already deviated from the rollout policy. To address this limitation, we propose CPPO (Cumulative Prefix-divergence Policy Optimization), a token-level masking rule that aligns updates with a finite-horizon policy-improvement bound via two coupled mechanisms. First, a position-weighted threshold imposes stricter limits at early positions whose effects persist longer, relaxing constraints for late-stage tokens. Second, a cumulative prefix budget tracks historical deviations, dynamically restricting further token-level deviation to prevent compounding errors along the prefix. Empirically, CPPO enhances training stability and significantly improves reasoning accuracy across various model scales.

A widely used technique for improving policies is success conditioning, in which one collects trajectories, identifies those that achieve a desired outcome, and updates the policy to imitate the actions taken along successful trajectories. This principle appears under many names -- rejection sampling with SFT, goal-conditioned RL, Decision Transformers -- yet what optimization problem it solves, if any, has remained unclear. We prove that success conditioning exactly solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement subject to a χ^2 divergence constraint whose radius is determined automatically by the data. This yields an identity: relative policy improvement, the magnitude of policy change, and a quantity we call action-influence -- measuring how random variation in action choices affects success rates -- are exactly equal at every state. Success conditioning thus emerges as a conservative improvement operator. Exact success conditioning cannot degrade performance or induce dangerous distribution shift, but when it fails, it does so observably, by hardly changing the policy at all. We apply our theory to the common practice of return thresholding, showing this can amplify improvement, but at the cost of potential misalignment with the true objective.

Large language model (LLM) judges are often used as rewards to train policies on objectives that deterministic verifiers cannot capture. However, these rewards are often collapsed to pass/fail ({0, 1}), which reports the verdict but not how well a response met each criterion. We model each pass/fail verdict as a score on an unreported scale, compared with one cutoff. A stretch of that scale moves every score proportionally toward or away from the cutoff, but never across it, so no verdict changes. A policy is therefore free to apply any stretch without changing anything the panel reports. Under a joint-Gaussian model, a third grade adds a second threshold and removes this affine stretch ambiguity. On MATH and SciBench outputs from one seven-criterion judge, all 14 constructed criterionwise stretches were invisible after binarization but visible with three grades. At n=1{,}024, a test given both population laws had at least 96.5% power at a 1.5times stress. Retaining grades closes one blind spot created by binarization, but verdicts alone remain insufficient as some changes are still indistinguishable from genuine improvement. These include arbitrary within-grade changes and fixed-covariance, loading-aligned mean shifts -- the signature of a sycophancy-shaped lift the panel reads as competence. The shared-factor reference approximation fit MATH and SciBench but not HealthBench, delineating its empirical scope. We recommend keeping at least three grades (for example, asking the judge whether each criterion is fully, partially, or not met and rewarding {0, 0.5, 1}), and externally validating gains along the remaining direction, which no finer scale removes.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

Tool-using LLM agents can violate the very policies they are deployed to enforce while appearing to complete the task successfully. In policy-permissive environments, a tool may execute any well-formed call even when the corresponding state transition is forbidden by domain policy. The result is a silent wrong state (a booking cancelled, a passenger count changed, a claim acted on without verification) that neither the tool nor the agent's self-report exposes. We study this failure mode in the τ^2-bench airline domain. On a budget agent, 78% of observed failures are silent wrong-state failures with no tool error, and the aggregate failure rate is reproducible across disjoint seeds, not sampling noise. We then evaluate a lightweight intervention: deterministic, read-only pre-execution gates that inspect the proposed call and current state before allowing a write. A four-gate suite raises full-benchmark success from 29.6% to 42.0% on gpt-4o-mini (+12.4pp; paired task-level bootstrap P=0.0012), and the lift reproduces on a disjoint 15-seed set (+12.3pp; P=0.0008). The effect is concentrated where the gates fire: on the 26/50 firing tasks, success rises by +19.2pp, while movement on the 24 non-firing tasks does not exclude zero. Two negative controls (a self-enforcing retail domain and BFCL) bound the mechanism: gates help when tools are policy-permissive and add little where tools already self-enforce. As suggestive evidence, not a central claim, the same failure mode persists at the frontier: gpt-5.2 at default reasoning still attempts policy-violating writes, and the same suite improves success from 61.2% to 71.6% (+10.4pp; P=0.020; n=5, no replication). The contribution is a bounded evaluation and reliability result: deterministic gates do not guarantee task success, but they can deterministically prevent a known class of silent policy-violating writes at the action boundary.

This paper introduces a new biologically-inspired training method named Continual Learning through Adjustment Suppression and Sparsity Promotion (CLASSP). CLASSP is based on two main principles observed in neuroscience, particularly in the context of synaptic transmission and Long-Term Potentiation (LTP). The first principle is a decay rate over the weight adjustment, which is implemented as a generalization of the AdaGrad optimization algorithm. This means that weights that have received many updates should have lower learning rates as they likely encode important information about previously seen data. However, this principle results in a diffuse distribution of updates throughout the model, as it promotes updates for weights that haven't been previously updated, while a sparse update distribution is preferred to leave weights unassigned for future tasks. Therefore, the second principle introduces a threshold on the loss gradient. This promotes sparse learning by updating a weight only if the loss gradient with respect to that weight is above a certain threshold, i.e. only updating weights with a significant impact on the current loss. Both principles reflect phenomena observed in LTP, where a threshold effect and a gradual saturation of potentiation have been observed. CLASSP is implemented in a Python/PyTorch class, making it applicable to any model. When compared with Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) using Computer Vision and sentiment analysis datasets, CLASSP demonstrates superior performance in terms of accuracy and memory footprint.

The quantum advantage threshold determines when a quantum processing unit (QPU) is more efficient with respect to classical computing hardware in terms of algorithmic complexity. The "green" quantum advantage threshold - based on a comparison of energetic efficiency between the two - is going to play a fundamental role in the comparison between quantum and classical hardware. Indeed, its characterization would enable better decisions on energy-saving strategies, e.g. for distributing the workload in hybrid quantum-classical algorithms. Here, we show that the green quantum advantage threshold crucially depends on (i) the quality of the experimental quantum gates and (ii) the entanglement generated in the QPU. Indeed, for NISQ hardware and algorithms requiring a moderate amount of entanglement, a classical tensor network emulation can be more energy-efficient at equal final state fidelity than quantum computation. We compute the green quantum advantage threshold for a few paradigmatic examples in terms of algorithms and hardware platforms, and identify algorithms with a power-law decay of singular values of bipartitions - with power-law exponent alpha lesssim 1 - as the green quantum advantage threshold in the near future.

Deep neural networks have made significant progress in the field of computer vision. Recent studies have shown that depth, width and shortcut connections of neural network architectures play a crucial role in their performance. One of the most advanced neural network architectures, DenseNet, has achieved excellent convergence rates through dense connections. However, it still has obvious shortcomings in the usage of amount of memory. In this paper, we introduce a new type of pruning tool, threshold, which refers to the principle of the threshold voltage in MOSFET. This work employs this method to connect blocks of different depths in different ways to reduce the usage of memory. It is denoted as ThresholdNet. We evaluate ThresholdNet and other different networks on datasets of CIFAR10. Experiments show that HarDNet is twice as fast as DenseNet, and on this basis, ThresholdNet is 10% faster and 10% lower error rate than HarDNet.

We introduce Feasible Learning (FL), a sample-centric learning paradigm where models are trained by solving a feasibility problem that bounds the loss for each training sample. In contrast to the ubiquitous Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework, which optimizes for average performance, FL demands satisfactory performance on every individual data point. Since any model that meets the prescribed performance threshold is a valid FL solution, the choice of optimization algorithm and its dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the properties of the resulting solutions. In particular, we study a primal-dual approach which dynamically re-weights the importance of each sample during training. To address the challenge of setting a meaningful threshold in practice, we introduce a relaxation of FL that incorporates slack variables of minimal norm. Our empirical analysis, spanning image classification, age regression, and preference optimization in large language models, demonstrates that models trained via FL can learn from data while displaying improved tail behavior compared to ERM, with only a marginal impact on average performance.

Mixed-motive multi-agent settings are rife with persistent free-riding because individual effort benefits all members equally, yet each member bears the full cost of their own contribution. Classical work by Holmström established that under pure self-interest, Nash equilibrium is universal shirking. While i* represents teams as composite actors, it lacks scalable computational mechanisms for analyzing how collective action problems emerge and resolve in coopetitive settings. This technical report extends computational foundations for strategic coopetition to team-level dynamics, building on companion work formalizing interdependence/complementarity (arXiv:2510.18802) and trust dynamics (arXiv:2510.24909). We develop loyalty-moderated utility functions with two mechanisms: loyalty benefit (welfare internalization plus intrinsic contribution satisfaction) and cost tolerance (reduced effort burden for loyal members). We integrate i* structural dependencies through dependency-weighted team cohesion, connecting member incentives to team-level positioning. The framework applies to both human teams (loyalty as psychological identification) and multi-agent systems (alignment coefficients and adjusted cost functions). Experimental validation across 3,125 configurations demonstrates robust loyalty effects (15.04x median effort differentiation). All six behavioral targets achieve thresholds: free-riding baseline (96.5%), loyalty monotonicity (100%), effort differentiation (100%), team size effect (100%), mechanism synergy (99.5%), and bounded outcomes (100%). Empirical validation using published Apache HTTP Server (1995-2023) case study achieves 60/60 points, reproducing contribution patterns across formation, growth, maturation, and governance phases. Statistical significance confirmed at p<0.001, Cohen's d=0.71.

Face biometrics are playing a key role in making modern smart city applications more secure and usable. Commonly, the recognition threshold of a face recognition system is adjusted based on the degree of security for the considered use case. The likelihood of a match can be for instance decreased by setting a high threshold in case of a payment transaction verification. Prior work in face recognition has unfortunately showed that error rates are usually higher for certain demographic groups. These disparities have hence brought into question the fairness of systems empowered with face biometrics. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which disparities among demographic groups change under different security levels. Our analysis includes ten face recognition models, three security thresholds, and six demographic groups based on gender and ethnicity. Experiments show that the higher the security of the system is, the higher the disparities in usability among demographic groups are. Compelling unfairness issues hence exist and urge countermeasures in real-world high-stakes environments requiring severe security levels.

We study KV cache eviction under a shared globally capped decode-time harness. Seven policies (LRU, H2O, SnapKV, StreamingLLM, Ada-KV, QUEST, Random) share a prompt-boundary vulnerability: without structural protection, they collapse to near-zero quality on six pure-transformer models (F1leq0.064). Reserving 10\% of cache at each boundary recovers 69--90\% of the C{=}2{,}048 reference-ceiling quality on seven LongBench models at C{=}256 (13\% retention); a ten-model panel spans 68--98\%. An attention-mass pilot (Qwen2.5-3B, N{=}30) suggests why: the position-0 sink holds {sim}75% of prefix mass, while other boundary tokens sit near {sim}0.41{times} uniform expectation, so attention scorers retain the sink but still drop structurally critical tokens. With protection, simplified score-isolation variants are TOST-equivalent to LRU at K{=}32 (Δ{=}0.02); at K{=}8, attention policies pairwise converge yet beat LRU by 0.011--0.021 F1 across C{=}256 and C{=}512. Faithful Ada-KV/QUEST add {sim}0.03--0.04 F1 on Mistral-7B and Phi-3.5 beyond simplified variants. A NIAH-32K regime-transfer pilot on Qwen3-4B (decode vs.\ prefill, C{in}{512,2048}) shows near-identical protection lifts (ratio 0.99--1.00). At 64K, protection helps but recovery is modest; faithful per-head scoring matches full-cache ceiling on Gemma-3-4B at 6.3\% retention only when the model already supports strong 64K retrieval without eviction. Overall: protection dominates; scoring differences are secondary once boundaries are guarded; per-head allocation gives a further modest gain.

Multi-agent AI systems exhibit emergent risks that no single agent produces in isolation. Existing safety frameworks rely on binary classifications of agent behavior, discarding the uncertainty inherent in proxy-based evaluation. We introduce SWARM (System-Wide Assessment of Risk in Multi-agent systems), a simulation framework that replaces binary good/bad labels with soft probabilistic labels p = P(v{=}+1) in [0,1], enabling continuous-valued payoff computation, toxicity measurement, and governance intervention. SWARM implements a modular governance engine with configurable levers (transaction taxes, circuit breakers, reputation decay, and random audits) and quantifies their effects through probabilistic metrics including expected toxicity E[1{-}p mid accepted] and quality gap E[p mid accepted] - E[p mid rejected]. Across seven scenarios with five-seed replication, strict governance reduces welfare by over 40\% without improving safety. In parallel, aggressively internalizing system externalities collapses total welfare from a baseline of +262 down to -67, while toxicity remains invariant. Circuit breakers require careful calibration; overly restrictive thresholds severely diminish system value, whereas an optimal threshold balances moderate welfare with minimized toxicity. Companion experiments show soft metrics detect proxy gaming by self-optimizing agents passing conventional binary evaluations. This basic governance layer applies to live LLM-backed agents (Concordia entities, Claude, GPT-4o Mini) without modification. Results show distributional safety requires continuous risk metrics and governance lever calibration involves quantifiable safety-welfare tradeoffs. Source code and project resources are publicly available at https://www.swarm-ai.org/.

At face value, this essay is about understanding a fairly esoteric governance tool called compute thresholds. However, in order to grapple with whether these thresholds will achieve anything, we must first understand how they came to be. This requires engaging with a decades-old debate at the heart of computer science progress, namely, is bigger always better? Hence, this essay may be of interest not only to policymakers and the wider public but also to computer scientists interested in understanding the role of compute in unlocking breakthroughs. Does a certain inflection point of compute result in changes to the risk profile of a model? This discussion is increasingly urgent given the wide adoption of governance approaches that suggest greater compute equates with higher propensity for harm. Several leading frontier AI companies have released responsible scaling policies. Both the White House Executive Orders on AI Safety (EO) and the EU AI Act encode the use of FLOP or floating-point operations as a way to identify more powerful systems. What is striking about the choice of compute thresholds to-date is that no models currently deployed in the wild fulfill the current criteria set by the EO. This implies that the emphasis is often not on auditing the risks and harms incurred by currently deployed models - but rather is based upon the belief that future levels of compute will introduce unforeseen new risks. A key conclusion of this essay is that compute thresholds as currently implemented are shortsighted and likely to fail to mitigate risk. Governance that is overly reliant on compute fails to understand that the relationship between compute and risk is highly uncertain and rapidly changing. It also overestimates our ability to predict what abilities emerge at different scales. This essay ends with recommendations for a better way forward.

We propose a criterion for discrimination against a specified sensitive attribute in supervised learning, where the goal is to predict some target based on available features. Assuming data about the predictor, target, and membership in the protected group are available, we show how to optimally adjust any learned predictor so as to remove discrimination according to our definition. Our framework also improves incentives by shifting the cost of poor classification from disadvantaged groups to the decision maker, who can respond by improving the classification accuracy. In line with other studies, our notion is oblivious: it depends only on the joint statistics of the predictor, the target and the protected attribute, but not on interpretation of individualfeatures. We study the inherent limits of defining and identifying biases based on such oblivious measures, outlining what can and cannot be inferred from different oblivious tests. We illustrate our notion using a case study of FICO credit scores.

Motivated by the operational problems in click and collect systems, such as curbside pickup programs, we study a joint admission control and capacity allocation problem. We consider a system where arriving customers have preferred service delivery times and gauge the service quality based on the service provider's ability to complete the service as close as possible to the preferred time. Customers can be of different priority classes, and their priority may increase as they wait longer in the queue. The service provider can reject customers upon their arrival if the system is overloaded or outsource the service (alternatively work overtime) when the capacity is not enough. The service provider's goal is to find the minimum-cost admission and capacity allocation policy to dynamically decide when to serve and whom to serve. We model this problem as a Markov Decision Process. Our structural results partially characterize a set of suboptimal solutions, and we develop solution methods using these results. We also develop a problem-specific approximation method that is based on state aggregation to overcome the computational challenges. We present extensive computational results and discuss the impact of problem parameters on the optimal policy.

We consider a binary classification problem under group fairness constraints, which can be one of Demographic Parity (DP), Equalized Opportunity (EOp), or Equalized Odds (EO). We propose an explicit characterization of Bayes optimal classifier under the fairness constraints, which turns out to be a simple modification rule of the unconstrained classifier. Namely, we introduce a novel instance-level measure of bias, which we call bias score, and the modification rule is a simple linear rule on top of the finite amount of bias scores.Based on this characterization, we develop a post-hoc approach that allows us to adapt to fairness constraints while maintaining high accuracy. In the case of DP and EOp constraints, the modification rule is thresholding a single bias score, while in the case of EO constraints we are required to fit a linear modification rule with 2 parameters. The method can also be applied for composite group-fairness criteria, such as ones involving several sensitive attributes.

Clinical decision-support systems are expert systems whose recommendations clinicians act on directly, yet they are usually cleared on one aggregate accuracy number from a held-out test set. That number says nothing about input reliability under encoding shifts, subgroup gaps, threshold sensitivity, or operational feasibility. We present RISED, a pre-deployment evaluation framework operationalising five dimensions (Reliability, Inclusivity, Sensitivity, Equity, Deployability) through BCa bootstrap 95% confidence intervals, literature-grounded thresholds, and Holm-Bonferroni-corrected PASS / FAIL / INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; Equity is a proxy-dependence diagnostic rather than a gating test. Applied to seven cohorts spanning 35 years (n from 303 to 99,492), RISED surfaces failures invisible to AUROC: on Diabetes 130, Reliability passes by three orders of magnitude (PSS = 0.0004) while Inclusivity (AUC parity gap = 0.262) and Sensitivity (max threshold-flip rate 49.1%) fail decisively; both NHIS cohorts reproduce this. NHANES 2021-2023, with a complete feature profile, achieves INCONCLUSIVE verdicts; BRFSS 2024 produces the suite's most severe Sensitivity failure (max threshold-flip rate 64.2%) after instrument rotation removed hypertension and cholesterol. The pattern recurs on credit- and income-prediction cohorts, confirming domain-agnosticity; a multi-model check shows the failures are data-driven, not model-specific. RISED ships as an open-source Python package complementing TRIPOD+AI, FUTURE-AI, and Fairlearn with the structured numerical evidence those standards require but do not prescribe.

Addressing global challenges often involves stimulating the large-scale adoption of new products or behaviors. Research traditions that focus on individual decision making suggest that achieving this objective requires identifying the drivers of individual discrete adoption choices. On the other hand, computational approaches rooted in complexity science focus on maximizing the propagation of a given product or behavior throughout social networks of interconnected adopters. Here, by integrating discrete choice modeling into the complex contagion theory, we propose a method to estimate individual-level thresholds to adoption. We validate the predictive power of this approach in two choice experiments. By integrating the estimated thresholds into computational simulations, we show that state-of-the-art seeding policies for initiating large-scale behavioral change might be suboptimal if they neglect individual-level behavioral drivers, which can be corrected through the proposed experimental method.

In critical applications, it is vital for classifiers to defer decision-making to humans. We propose a post-hoc method that makes existing classifiers selectively abstain from predicting certain samples. Our abstaining classifier is incentivized to maintain the original accuracy for each sub-population (i.e. no harm) while achieving a set of group fairness definitions to a user specified degree. To this end, we design an Integer Programming (IP) procedure that assigns abstention decisions for each training sample to satisfy a set of constraints. To generalize the abstaining decisions to test samples, we then train a surrogate model to learn the abstaining decisions based on the IP solutions in an end-to-end manner. We analyze the feasibility of the IP procedure to determine the possible abstention rate for different levels of unfairness tolerance and accuracy constraint for achieving no harm. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to identify the theoretical relationships between the constraint parameters and the required abstention rate. Our theoretical results are important since a high abstention rate is often infeasible in practice due to a lack of human resources. Our framework outperforms existing methods in terms of fairness disparity without sacrificing accuracy at similar abstention rates.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

The rise of agentic AI enables LLMs to access diverse user data, raising critical privacy concerns. Prior work on contextual privacy studies whether LLMs regulate information disclosure according to context-dependent norms. However, acceptable disclosure boundaries may vary across users even within the same context. To address this limitation, we introduce personalized privacy, which incorporates user-specific disclosure preferences into privacy control. We further present P3Bench~(Personalized Privacy Preservation Benchmark), a novel benchmark extending contextual privacy policies with personalized disclosure policies. Experiments show that prompt-based policies fail to reliably enforce personalized privacy policies, with Qwen2.5-7B and Gemma3-4B showing average policy ignorance ratios of 51.25\% and 74.28\%, respectively. Finally, to address this problem, we propose Repair, a robust inference-time attention head intervention method that adjusts disclosure behavior toward policy-consistent responses. Our method significantly improves adherence to user-specific privacy preferences by reducing cases where the model fails to follow the given policy.

A service system may use the same categories to assign standard allocations and to check whether each service is fulfilled. Finer categories can match individual needs more closely, but they divide the observations available for monitoring. We study this conflict for a fixed menu from which participants select by declaring a category, with fulfilment assessed from each category's aggregate outcomes during a fixed period. We relate allocation loss to variation in preferred allocations within categories and identify conditions under which aggregate observations preserve the verification performance of individual records. For nested refinements under stated utility and observation assumptions, an allocation-loss tolerance and a per-category detection target define a feasibility band. Categories must be fine enough to provide suitable allocations but sufficiently populated to support verification. A source-dependent lower bound on declaration entropy and a minimum contributor requirement give necessary information and population constraints. For an explicit finite population with quadratic utility and binary service outcomes, we prove the exact feasible range across all categorical designs and exhibit designs attaining the information lower bound at specified tolerances. The results provide conditions for choosing categories jointly for allocation and verification.